(Incidentally, Ben Page subsequently deleted his tweet, so I'm not sure if he accidentally broke his own firm's embargo.)
There's also a GB-wide YouGov poll showing a collapse in the Tory lead from fifteen points to six. Given that Keir Starmer's personal ratings suggest the public are warming to the new Labour leader in spite of his lack of charisma, I suspect the Labour resurgence south of the border could be here to stay, and may have further to run. So the big question for the SNP is whether they can hold their commanding lead in Scotland in a new environment where Labour look like credible long-term challengers for power. So far, they're managing to do so, if the Scottish subsample from the poll is to be believed -
SNP 54%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 16%, Greens 4%, Liberal Democrats 3%, Brexit Party 1%
Scottish Labour will doubtless be banking on a turnaround once the crisis subsides and Nicola Sturgeon no longer has the advantage of being a 'war leader'. But they shouldn't make any assumptions - there have been spells since the autumn of 2014 when Labour looked like serious contenders under both Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, but the SNP have maintained some sort of lead throughout.
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A few people (maybe four or five) have suggested that I should commission another opinion poll on independence soon. I was initially surprised by the idea, because of course there was a Panelbase poll on independence commissioned by Wings extremely recently. However, that was pre-Cummings, and the theory is that there may have been a boost for Yes as a result of that lovely day out in Barnard Castle. To be honest, I'm not at all sure whether it's a good idea to be attempting a crowdfunder in the middle of a pandemic when people are struggling so much, but if anyone has any strong views on the subject, feel free to leave a comment below, and I'll assess whether there's enough appetite for it. Bear in mind that there's never any way of knowing when an independence poll might suddenly pop up in a newspaper anyway.
There might well be a more optimal moment later in the year, but I've got an open mind, so let me know what you think.
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This is outrageous. Think of all the distortions the BBC put out during the independence referendum, quite possibly affecting the result. No trace of regret after 6 years. But a factual statement about Cummings? They cravenly back down within HOURS.https://t.co/oer5M4JYut— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 27, 2020