Sunday, March 29, 2020

Sensational Panelbase poll shows SNP have further increased their enormous lead over the Tories

A few people have mentioned over the last few days that they'd just taken part in a Scottish voting intention poll for Panelbase. My assumption was that it was probably a private poll that would never see the light of day, because I couldn't believe a newspaper would commission such a poll in the middle of an unprecedented global crisis, but amazingly it turned out to be for the Sunday Times. The Holyrood figures are almost unbelievably good for the SNP - they're marginally better even than the figures in the previous Panelbase poll, which was commissioned by this very blog in late January.

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 51% (+1)
Conservatives 26% (n/c)
Labour 14% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Greens 3% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 48% (+1)
Conservatives 26% (+1)
Labour 13% (-1)

I'll have to wait a few hours to find out the list numbers for the Lib Dems and the Greens, because I don't pay the Murdoch Levy and the preview of the article cuts out at that point!  But there's no doubt that the SNP would win a comfortable outright majority on results such as these.

I know from what people have said that the poll also asked about independence and the Alex Salmond trial (the latter possibly explains the weird timing of the exercise), but I can't see any information about those results yet.

I have to say I feel slightly cheated, because until I found out about the Panelbase poll a few minutes ago I was all set to write a blogpost entitled: "Hello!  Is it me you're looking for?"  One of our resident trolls had left a comment on the previous thread saying he couldn't wait to see how I would "spin the poll showing a 9% swing from the SNP to the Tories".  It turned out there was no such poll - he was referring to a tweet by a journalist from Hello! magazine (I'm genuinely not making this up) who apparently couldn't tell the difference between a poll and a tiny subsample of 99 people.

UPDATE: Many thanks to Paul Martin for sending me the full Sunday Times article.  The Liberal Democrats and Greens are both on 6% of the list vote - that's a 1% drop for both since January.

The independence figures are...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 49% (-3)
No 51% (+3)

Luckily the Sunday Times are measuring percentage changes from their own previous poll in November, rather than from the more recent Panelbase poll commissioned by this blog, so they're very helpfully reporting this as a 2% increase for Yes!  For my money the Yes vote has held up remarkably well given that people tend to be much more cautious and conservative in the middle of a crisis.  A virtual 50/50 split in the current circumstances suggests there is considerable potential for Yes to build up a sustained lead if and when the attention of the public returns to the Tories' plans for an extreme Brexit.

Respondents to the poll feel that Nicola Sturgeon is responding better to the current crisis than Boris Johnson - she gets a net rating of +54 compared to Johnson's rating of +17.  That's highly significant, because fieldwork took place entirely after Johnson's much-lauded TV address announcing the lockdown.  Bear in mind, though, that it may be harder for Ms Sturgeon to keep such a high profile going forward, now that BBC Scotland are cutting back on TV news bulletins.  (It's hard to be too critical of that decision given the need for social distancing and to keep the number of people travelling for work to an absolute minimum.  Nevertheless, it does illustrate again that the BBC tend to regard London-based news as 'essential' and Scottish news as an optional extra.)

On the Alex Salmond trial, the poll finds that the impact on Nicola Sturgeon's reputation has been more or less neutral.  Mr Salmond himself fares somewhat less well, but it's scarcely a disaster for him - a majority of the sample either say that their opinion of him has not been changed, or that they now have a more positive view.


  1. Encouraging polling for the SNP.

    An additional useful specific question in the survey could have covered opinion on how well the Scottish government were handling the Corona crisis as, no doubt, this will be factor in the next Holyrood elections (whenever they are held).

  2. Shock as electorate prove they are sophisticated enough to separate a political party and its performance in government from the misadventures of its former leader. I'm sure there will be lots of people very disappointed with this outcome.

    1. The former leaser who is innocent of all charges while the current leader is using Government resources to continue her failed attacks on him and his supporters?

  3. Such a pity then that the SNP have been seriously compromised. As the Alex Salmond trial has shown us, many within the SNP have doubtful allegiances. The party needs a clean-oot! We can't have them in their present state negotiating our independence.

    1. "Negotiating our independence"? YES WE CAN !.

      I would let Auld Nick himself, sit at the table on our behalf, to argue for our freedom. And all the hounds of Hell, as well !

    2. Sounds like a top negotiating team.

    3. Compare the list of those within the SNP who cheered on kez dugface when she defamed the Rev Stu with the list of those who welcome Alex Salmond winning his case.

      All of those on the former need to go. Including the woman who expressed her 100% confidence in the scum who just wasted millions of pounds of our taxes on a second failed court case.

    4. Depends on how it pans out. A major skeleton in the closet has been exposed as a fake and is being buried. Those behind it will be exposed. Depending on what is now revealed Sturgeon was behind it and will be ousted or was dealing with it in a merciless couldn't care less if he was my mentor way.

      This scandal was meant to hang over the SNP for use during any independence campaign. If it was meant to control Sturgeon then her reluctance to push the indyref2 button has an explanation.

    5. The people who cheered Kezia Dugdale for winning her case were from all parties as well as journalists and commentators and those people weren't cheering because of the legal case, they were cheering because the result was against Stuart Campbell, every reasonable person with half a brain knows what Stuart Campbell is he's like a human Corona virus, doesn't look to bad until you let him infect you, why people think he's on the side of Independence beats me, he's on the side of Stuart Campbell, he's a self promoting disease exactly like Nigel Farage or George Galloway, he picks on a cause and runs with it and his current cause is political death to Nicola Sturgeon based on the same type of evidence that thiose against Alex Salmond used against him, assertions, circumstantial evidence, the words of ex politicians or journalists, then he ties it altogether sticks his subversive bow on it and sells it to a gullible public looking for someone to blame

      Stuart Campbell is a virus

    6. #hysterical post alert#

  4. assuming this is the poll I did yesterday there were also lots of policy questions too - school leaving age, taxation, police and a few more I can't remember. those read like they were for a party but hard to tell which one.

  5. The Gemma White and Dame Laura Cox inquiries into bullying and harassment at Westminster didn't make a jot of difference into voting patterns (though the media largely sat on the results), so why should the Salmond trial be different?
    "Scottish" pundits and commentators have continued their "trial by media" into Salmond---if the law cant touch him, they will throw mud, but this poll shows people are more discerning than Brit Nat journo's would appreciate.

    1. On the other hand, the poll found that the trial has damaged Salmond's public standing, while (surprisingly, at least to me) actually slightly improving Sturgeon's

    2. That may be due to the outright lies told by the media as to the evidence presented at said trial. You can still see comments from people talking about the 14 women assaulted. Or feminazis playing the believe her card.

    3. Do people saying 'feminazi' have any clue what normal people think of them when they say that ?

    4. That may be due to the outright lies told by the media as to the evidence presented at said trial.

      The media have also been trying to get another #SNPcivilwar story going, and suggesting that Sturgeon was conspiring either to get Salmond sent down or to protect him, depending on the weather. Yet such stories have apparently done no harm to her personally.

  6. 48% on the Regional list might net the SNP a few list seats in addition to the constituency seats, a la North East Scotland region in 2011.

  7. They say national crises favour national solidarity. That could mean some Scots identifying as British being less inclined to 'separatism' when the crisis is over.

    But in 1945, despite Churchill's glories, the public put their faith in Labour to build a new country.

    So it's not inevitable that Tories would benefit from this crisis.

    SNP vote holding up could fit with that

  8. Just as I didn't pass judgement on Salmond, but let the jury do that, I won't pass judgement on Sturgeon, but wait until the truth of the matter comes to light. I don't know what, if anything, is going on here, and it will have no impact on my support for independence, which is about Scottish governance / democracy, not internal party politics.

    What I can say is that Salmond's accusers are revolting, horrible people. To call the judge (female), jury (70% female) and witnesses (again, numerous females) all liars while hiding behind anonymity is disgusting.

    If they want to create public support for Salmond, this is how to do it.

    1. What really angers me is that I was willing to believe these women. I don't know Salmond personally, and it did seem out of character from what I did know, but I was prepared to accept the accusations could be true. It can be that sometimes we don't know people when we think we do. So, I was open to accepting whatever the court found with the evidence in front of it.

      I am please the truth has come out. I am angry I gave the accusers the benefit of the doubt now and trusted they might be honest. They are rubbing my face in that and will get no sympathy at all.

    2. I am of the same opinion. I kept an open mind about the trial and cannot see why the accusers get to remain anonymous although quite a few of us know who they are.

    3. I can understand the rules about not naming alleged victims of rape or attempted rape, although one-sided anonymity creates problems. But can someone explain the thinking behind those involved in lesser charges remaining anonymous? Is there a great stigma in being known as The Woman (or Man) Who Allegedly Had Their Leg Or Hip Or Arm Touched?

    4. Yes. I agree.
      He was tried in a court of law; a jury, who heard all the evidence, acquitted him; yet somehow continuing 'trial' by media and innuendo is OK.
      I too kept an open mind, since I don't know Alex Salmond at all.
      I do think those attempting to throw mud should be very careful because, if they don't, they might well find themselves either up in, or back in, Court.

  9. Support for indy will surge if the UK government pushes ahead with brexit right now, putting petty politics before Scots lives.

    At the same time, the Scottish government were right to put a pause on iref2 until we are through this.

    SNP urges UK government to 'hit pause' on Brexit due to coronavirus

  10. Breakdown of the list vote (including Greens and Lib Dems) and the independence question here:

    1. Well, so much for the Salmond trial damaging independence then.

      SNP up big style and:

      49(+2)% Yes
      51(-2)% No

    2. Also no evidence of the current pandemic leading to a surge in let's-stay-togetherness, now that it occurs to me.

    3. Wife got naked last night and asked me 'What turns you on more, ma pretty face or my sexy body? i looked her up and down and replied, 'Your sense of humour hen !"

    4. Eat your cereal.

  11. For the anonymous commenter trying to downplay the impact of overrun hospitals on the Covid case fatality rate: Madrid has double the case fatality rate of the rest of Spain, and nearly the same number of deaths from 22677 cases as the rest of Spain has from 56120.

    Madrid current case fatality rate: 13.5% and rising (3082 deaths from 22677 confirmed cases).
    Rest of Spain: 6.1% from (3446 from 56120 confirmed cases).

    This may be of interest to the same anonymous commenter, who dismissed the global deathrate from closed cases. This figure now stands at 18% and rising (6% two weeks ago). You can ignore this figure in the very early stages but not once you have a sample size of 178k. It seems clear that increased CFR due to overrun hospitals is contributing to this rise.

    Nobody is saying the deathrate among the infected is 18% or will be 13% or higher when more hospitals are overrun. But the above are the nearest we have just now to reliable figures and not published with emphatic qualifications about just being tentative guesses and how wide the margin of error is. Anybody wanting to argue the mortality rate is 1% needs to show that for every thirteen infections, or every eighteen, only one is confirmed. If you can, then that’s good news for everybody, and who doesn’t need that right now?

    TLDR: don’t let your hospitals get overrun.

    1. i must say BDSM club , i do so enjoy your posts. I am spending a greater and greater amount of time this month looking at exponential graphs and fully concur with your in depth analysis.

      Do keep up the good work.

  12. Anybody wanting to argue the mortality rate is 1% needs to show that for every thirteen infections, or every eighteen, only one is confirmed

    1 out of 18 is 5.5% is out of 13 is 7.7%. WHO is predicting 1-3% asymptomatic cases. This study had it at 30%:
    Diamond Princess had 16%:

    ECDC is saying between 48-62%:

    50-75% in this one:

    Of course these are all relatively small scale studies and it will not be until large scale antibody testing gets rolled out (running into the hundred of thousands) that the real figure will be known but based on this can easily be seen how can get a figure of only 1 in 13 or 18 being confirmed.

    1. The downside of course is that the viral load in asymptomatic cases has been shown to be no lower than symptomatic cases, hence they could be the main spreader of the virus especially at the early stages when only people who feel ill are isolating.

    2. Which offers a ready explanation for how cases exploded in Italy, seemingly almost out of nowhere; for weeks there were likely thousands of asymptomatic cases wandering around infecting people before those with serious symptoms started being detected.

      It also explains how the likes of the PM gets infected; meeting with people who are asymptomatic so not self isolating.

      This highlights the need for mass testing; the more you test, the more you know what the real mortality rate, asymptomatic rate etc is, ergo the better you can tailor your response.

    3. There's also the major problem in the more southern European states, such as Spain and Italy, of large families of up to 3 generations living in the same home.

      It seems to be a significant problem there for spread.

    4. Very true. Also the virus was probably in the population for much longer than people think, maybe since early January /late December and any cases that required hospitalisation were just put down to normal winter caused cases.

      Just need to pray that there are a high amount of undetected cases out there. If there is not the second peak in the winter will make this one seem like a walk in the park.

    5. An effective suppression strategy does not depend on prayer - it depends on keeping the numbers extremely low once the current wave subsides. Professor Neil Ferguson suggested in his comments to a parliamentary committee the other day that this might be achieved by the South Korean approach of mass testing and contact tracing, so we'll just have to hope the government listen to him.

  13. I’ll assume you’re the anonymous commenter referred to above.

    >based on this can easily be seen how can get a figure of only 1 in 13 or 18 being confirmed.

    Sorry, but that really doesn’t follow from your figures.

    First you don’t get the total number of infected by adding up confirmed cases and estimates of asymptomatic cases. You wouldn’t even get it if you added up confirmed cases and confirmed asymptomatic cases, as that would leave unaccounted loads of people with mild symptoms who don’t or can’t get tested. Have a think about both of those and you’ll see what I mean.

    So there isn’t that much point responding to your figures.

    Even so, here again are the figures you quote:


    As I said above, the deathrate in closed cases is 18%. This is the most solid figure we have, as Madrid’s deathrate is not yet being replicated elsewhere. With a global closed-case deathrate of 18% none of the above would close to implying only one in eighteen (or one in nine) cases is being confirmed and therefore an overall mortality rate of 1–2%.

    The two other studies are the type I mentioned with huge margins of error. And the 50-75% figure is just a quote from a doctor, with zero info on methodology.

    Remember, I am not saying the mortality rate among those infected is NOT 1 or 2% or lower. I sincerely hope it is. But at the moment the case for that is weak, as I’ve outlined above. That’s not a criticism of you or anyone else, btw. We just don’t have the necessary information yet, until there’s far more random testing of populations done.

    And the global deathrate from confirmed cases simply cannot be dismissed with a sample size of over 170k. When it rises so dramatically it provides information about the impact of respirators running out and also how much worse counties with older populations are being hit than China was.

    Cheers, and stay safe.

    1. In germany where they have carried out the most tests per head of population in Europe the death to infected rate is 0.7%.

      Latest figures:

      52,547 confirmed cases

      389 deaths

    2. Exactly the kind of thing I've been asking for here. At last.

      Give us a link and we're done here.

      (To be really picky, the above isn't actually the figure I'm looking for. That figure is Germany's case fatality rate, not the overall mortality rate among those infected. But as it's 0.7% and the figure among all Germans infected is guaranteed to be lower -- it doesn't matter how much by - it will certainly do).

      Thank you.

    3. Here's the link, it's in English.

  14. #deathrate in closed cases 18%#

    meaningless hysterical figure.

    Thanks though for delivering your daily does of panic on this blog BDSM.

    You are keeping us entertained through the boredom.

    1. Hysterical? You need to read my final paragraph again, if you even bothered reading it first time round.

      >Meaningless figure

      In the very early stages, yes. But not when there are 170k closed cases. Your point the other day about too many cases pending applies to the case fatality rate, not the closed cases. The case fatality rate is therefore the less meaningful figure, to say nothing of the highly-qualified estimates with huge margins of error you seem to be hanging your hat on.

      You really seem to be struggling with the idea that if you want to say that 18% is way too high and the true mortality rate is 2%, you have to prove that that for every confirmed case there are nine unconfirmed. This is my fourth time explaining this to you. I assume it’ll go over you head again.

      But if not, let’s see you have a go, then.

      Btw tell your wife cheers for that session in my dungeon last night. Well worth breaking any quarantine for, she said. She did get nicked on the way home to yours, though. Kind of conspicuous with those bandy legs.

    2. I normally cant get past the first sentence of your posts BDSM before my eyes start glazing over at the absolute panic .

      Its been hysterical rantings for days now from you , while attempting to justify tossing empty out of context numbers off the top of your head.

      I can see though calling out your terror is having an effect if your last paragraph is anything to go by.

      Man up , and stop being a spittle flecked ,foaming at the mouth drama queen.

    3. Firstly, why are you hiding behind the Anonymous tag? Anybody can see from the fuckwittery and chaotic punctuation and typing that you’re govan young team.

      Secondly, you are the most pig-ignorant, humourless clown this site has ever seen – yeah, worse than him. Your latest hard-of-laughing fiasco is an inability to recognise that the 14% deathrate a few days back was not an actual claim that 14% of people with the virus die from it. It was in the context of a joke post about GWC’s absence and the joke worked better with a 14% deathrate than a 2%.

      But you didn’t get that, did you, because you don’t get anything. Life is one endless windtunnel of whoosh for you. (Now now go and try to find someone to explain why that doesn’t mean an actual windtunnel).

      Loads of people over the years have accused GWC of being 77th, but that obviously can’t be true. What can he possibly have achieved for Unionism other than to disgrace it even worse than Manky?

      But you and your ‘support for independence’? That I’m not so sure about. What better way to neutralise GWC as an embarrassment to Unionism on this site than commenting as an avatar of – and please take this in the spirit in which it’s meant – the most wretched Yesser troll possible?

      This exchange is over for now because, uh, you ‘beat’ me again. I ‘surrendered’ to your mighty cognitive firepower. The apostrophe key is to the right of the colon and semi-colon. A semi-colon looks like a comma with a dot above it.

    4. Oh dear. You're posting about me as Don Kee as well? You're tag-teaming with your own sock-puppet? Your chaotic typing and punctuation give it away in seconds, man.

      Thinking you can hide behind your thumb is cute in infants. Bit less so in a family man with a number of (cough) 'employees'. Presumably you're unaware of this, but this kind of fake tag-teaming has long been seen as one of the most pathetic things you can do online. Or maybe you're aware of but, what, you're too Scarlet Pimpernel crafty to get caught?

      I wasn’t particularly having fun above, but this is getting interesting now. Just how sad is govan young team going to get here? I dare you: go for that fourth username, mate. I know you’re dying to. I promise I won’t know it’s you, you big sexy man of mystery, you.

    5. Talk about a wildly emotional and exagerrated reaction to a post on an internet blog?L.O.L!!!

      A little girl hiding behind the anonymity of the name BDSM club moaning about others hiding behind internet anonymity.

      Your ego is that large BDSM , you cant imagine anyone challenging the drivel you post on here , let alone more than one person.

      My cover is blown , i am GWC , Big Eater , Anonymous and every other poster on this site.L.O.L!

      Your hysteria is now only being matched by your paranoia.

      Retreating into squealing about semi colons and arguing about the polite and proper usage of the language of the english really is the last refuge of the beaten scoundrel.

      You are an hysteric BDSM. Im surprised you havent broken one or two of your painted fingernails in your frenzy of panic and paranoia above.

      The indy movement is full of hysterics , weirdos and insipid little men full of their own self importance.

      You are one of them.

      I enjoy James blog , and many of the comments and articles , but really , do try and restrain yourself and reign in your feverish drivel.

      Its embarressing.

  15. Is it my impression that there is something missing from the site, an annoying incessant irritant, submlimely absent?

  16. One way or the other, the SNP will have to clean house prior to any Indyref2.

    The devolutionists that have sprung up within it will be forced to make a decision. What we've seen are an increase in SNP career politicians, many from the Labour area of post-2015 politics. They were unionists without a job, so they got a job in the SNP / Scot Gov instead.

    These people have every right to their political point of view, but not if it's at odds with the party's raison d'etre.

    Perhaps a 2nd Indy party with Eck at the helm for those regional votes. That would be interesting.

  17. It's just dawned on me that the arguments about where and how many times you're allowed to go outdoors during the lockdown are the Moorov Doctrine for viruses.

    1. Big Eater From PerthMarch 29, 2020 at 7:20 PM

      Some folk are taking this social distancing to ridiculous lengths. Just heard somebody playing Daniel O'Donnell records at full volume.

    2. private mcgubligginMarch 29, 2020 at 7:40 PM

      Three rangers fans were sitting in the pub window seat...Watching the front door of the brothel over the road.
      The local priest appeared, and quickly went inside.
      "Would you look at that!" said the rangers fan.
      "Didn't I always say what a bunch of hypocrites they are?"
      No sooner were the words out of his mouth than a Rabbi appeared at the door,
      Knocked, and entered.
      "Another one trying to fool everyone with pious preaching and stupid hats!"
      They continued drinking their beer, roundly condemning the priest and the rabbi
      When they see their own presbyterian minister knock on the door.
      "Ah, now thats sad," said the third rangers fan.
      "One of the girls must have died...”

    3. @Rev Stu

      It's just dawned on me that you should go outside and mingle with the other virus's out there

    4. Remember to use the Royal "we":

      "Rev. Stuart Campbell

      We deserve a virus. We ARE a virus."

  18. Sir. Thank you for the above comment. I will of course take it on board.

  19. Big Eater From PerthMarch 29, 2020 at 6:36 PM

    There's a better than even chance of the odds being wrong. The Scottish coronavirus mortality graph is WRONG.
    Read my blog.

    I refuse to be Covid into submission!

  20. All i can say is thank god we have BDSM club to set us all straight.

    I have been following and reading his comments on this blog for days with baited breath and much anticipation.

    Thank you sir.

  21. Interesting. SNP figures would go up to 70? That would likely come as 3 extra constituency seats, and (ahem) 4 list seats. Without help from Wings' or Salmond's SNP2.

  22. If your resolve is weakening then have a read of this hardline BritUnionist drivel:

    Full of assumptions about whose money, etc. it is. And, as you can see from the last paragraph the promotion of the idea of such a thing as a British nation leads to the idea of Scotland as “sub-national”. (There may be a point about whether the EU has covered itself in glory but I'll leave that for others to debate.)

  23. No idea how good this is but

    SNP 62 constituency seats and 9 - NINE - regional seats.

    So with the list seats, overall SNP majority even if the SNP provide the PO. Without the list seats, and list votes split all over the place, it's a Unionist Holyrood in 2021 - enjoy.

    As far as I'm concerned that's the last vestige of interest in the Wings party gone. It puts Independence back at least 5 years.

    1. No matter how much bile Stuart Campbell and his cabal throw at the SNP the people see right through it, and using the former FM pretending he's his best pal won't help his cause either
      The WINGS website is a disgrace filled with the same foul mouthed twitter trolls and SNP haters who Campbell is relying on to keep himself going, he'll end up back where Kezia Dugdale put him, in court but this time with no one to pay his expenses and lifestyle

      He has no friends left except the twitter trolls, will they fund him? I doubt it

    2. How do you fund a website with no money? you print whatever Boris Johnson pays you to print

  24. In response to the ongoing Covert-9team – BDSM crisis I have decided to make 09.00 to 13.00 a Designated Time for trolls and Wingers.

    Anyone else wishing to post will have to show full ID.

  25. cant that you Govan Young team?

    You really do get around this blog dont you?

    You have upset BDSM club terribly with your sock puppets and trolls.

    He is such a danger to the union with his exponential graphs and sublime analysis of covid 19 that we 77th have our full resources and complete attention fully on him.

  26. Stuart Campbell is the Spear Of The Nation. And he is held back by prissy statisticians.

  27. Not entirely surprised by the poll. The opposition are not exactly exciting and Nicola has been very competent and statesman like in her handling of the current crisis. Acquittal in the Salmond trial effectively neutered the issue for the public.

    Journalistic grief at the outcome and attempts to reinvent another civil war is not going to feed into the polls because it is too arcane, too much in the political journalist bubble. Alex stepped down as leader 6 years ago. There was no coup and he is no longer a politician. I personally don't know anyone in the party that is upset by the outcome and are pleased for Alex and delighted Nicola is getting plaudits for her work. If it is a civil war it is being fought with flowers. Obviously the losing party of any court case will be annoyed but I do wonder why they are still afforded anonymity if they are going to continue with their accusations, having lost both the grievance process and the criminal case. I don't know Alex and was prepared to accept that the accusations could be real and if proven he would go to jail. They weren't and he is free to carry on broadcasting and writing.

    70 seats in Holyrood next year would be very thick icing on the cake and a position of considerable strength for the Indy movement (clearly there will be no votes of any sort this year). When life throws lemons make lemonade...or whatever trite platitude tickles your erogenous zones.

  28. Some promising news:

    Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College in London, who has been advising the government on the pandemic, claims to have detected "early signs" that the spread of the Virus is being curbed.

    Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme this morning, he said: "In the UK we can see some early signs of slowing and some indicators, less so in deaths, because deaths are lagged by a long time from when measures come in force.

    "But when you look at the numbers of new hospital admissions per day for instance, that does appear to be slowing down a little bit now.

    "It's not yet plateaued so the numbers can increase each day but the rate of that increase has slowed. We see similar patterns in a number of European countries at the current time."

    Prof Ferguson added that the curve is slowing due to the draconian measures the government has implemented.

    "It is the result of the actions people have taken and governments have taken," he said.

    "And underneath look at curves of death - death is a reliable outcome but it's delayed by two or three weeks by what is actually happening and transmission.

    "Underneath that there are new infections happening every day and if you look at the detail in China for instance what you see is a period of exponential growth followed by an abrupt truncation when the draconian measures were put in place."

  29. Going on to what was being discussed yesterday:

    Prof Ferguson also added that a third of people who get coronavirus are asymptomatic - meaning they don't get any symptoms.

    "We think maybe even a third, maybe even 40 per cent of people really don't get any symptoms," he said.

    Prof Ferguson was able to make this estimation by extrapolating from places like the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where nearly half of passengers and crew who had coronavirus were asymptomatic, and repatriation flights.

    1. Good article by wee ginger dug in the national....

      "Wee Ginger Dug: Alex Salmond is innocent – the trial must end now"

      "THE coronavirus crisis has changed everything. If it were not for this epidemic we’d currently be in the middle of a leadership crisis at the very top of the SNP. The Alex Salmond trial was a political earthquake, which could only be eclipsed by an event of the magnitude of the current epidemic.
      But nevertheless feelings run high, emotions are bruised. The Former First Minister was cleared in the High Court of all the charges against him, but it appears that that’s not good enough for some people, especially in the press. Ever since the verdict was announced there’s been a constant sniping against him, and aspersions cast upon him by people who were clearly rubbing their hands in glee at the prospect of a guilty verdict and who now are frustrated and angry that they’ve been deprived of a much longed for scalp. "

  30. [has game of online poker just to piss arseholes off]

  31. LMFAO!

    ...and to think BDSM clubs overinflated ego is that massive , he actually thinks all the trolls posting on james site are the creation of one individual who has set out WITH THE SOLE INTENTION to discredit his hysterical ramblings.

    Imagine having an ego that large that you think the internet revolves around and hangs on your every word.

    Arent you full of yourself BDSM.

  32. The only ego on here is you, pal. If you think that personal abuse like this somehow convinces people that your rampant Britnattery is the way to go, do think again. Or maybe you just perversely enjoy polluting websites wherever you go. (Same thing, really.)

    1. anonymous 4.04pm.

      I appear to be everything to everyone on this blog.

      Earlier on , i was accused of being "the most wretched yesser".

      Now you accuse me of being " a rampant britnat".

      A closed mouth gathers no foot.

  33. Stuart Campbell believes everyone's an arsehole but him, you don't need to be a psychiatrist to work out what he suffers from

    1. If your opponents have never tried to smear you, ridicule you, discredit you, bankrupt you, silence you, imprison you or murder you, they don't fear you or see you as a threat.

      It's worth keeping that in mind when deciding which of the people on your team you should value.

    2. That's kinda what you've been engaged in for years isn't it, plus we know what team you're in, the "I want to be famous but they won't let me on the telly" team

    3. Ah've never seen Kelly oan the telly.

  34. Yes it is sensational because they haven't done anything to deserve it. We are now paying the price for their dithering over the referendum and looking at 2022 or 2023 at the earliest for a Referendum. I no longer trust the SNP to deliver one. It seems to me the present SNP leadership are more interested in stitching up Alex Salmond than giving us a fair and free Indy Referendum any time soon. Who knows how long the Brit Tories will drag out the Coronavirus for.

  35. The day Alex Salmond accuses Nicola Sturgeon of wrong doing then you can take it seriously, until then all you have is big mouths with grudges

    1. I waited for the jury in the Salmond case and I'll wait for the same (even if just figuratively) in the Sturgeon case.