* * *What's incredible about this is not that Johnson says he'll "never debate Nicola Sturgeon". It's that the broadcasters react to that by saying "No worries, we'll just exclude her from the debates for you, then". Because that's LITERALLY what they've done.https://t.co/8jaoNcpBlI— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) November 19, 2019
I have another two constituency previews in The National today - this time it's Paisley & Renfrewshire North and Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
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Click here for a handy list of SNP election crowdfunders.
And the Internet is full of people from England agreeing that dictatorship by England over Scotland isn't up for discussion because well just shut up you Jocks from Haggis land, who do you think you are this is the UK and we run it, you people are just whinging nobodies with your Sturgeon council woman
ReplyDeleteBend over a desk and open your Irish Backstop, Scotland. Papa Boris is coming for you.
DeleteSNP on 43 with YouGov. Tories on 28. So Tories converging on the 2017 result as they are in the rUK polls. Makes SNP gains from the Tories minimal. Going from low 20's to mid 20's to high 20's in two weeks is a wee bit concerning at this stage.
ReplyDeleteYes, it does look like the Tories are creeping up (although in the absence of full-scale Scottish polls we're making a leap of faith in saying anything too definite). In a way it's quite impressive that the SNP's vote is holding up while that's happening, but what worries me is the possibility of a 2017-style pincer movement if Labour suddenly start to recover at the SNP's expense as a result of the rigged debates.
DeleteAlso, which party has the more motivated voters? From what I have seen in the polls it is the SNP.
DeleteCompared with this point in the campaign last time and looking at the last few YouGovs, the SNP are at the same level. Tories got 29 and 30 in the national polls and Labour got 18 and 19. So both are further behind now. The Lib Dems are the beneficiaries. Indeed they aren't suffering as much since the start of the campaign in Scottish samples than at the UK level.
ReplyDeleteThe Tory wins in 2017 mostly have stonking majorities which suggests they were effectively won early in the 2017 campaign if not before. They are only easy pickings for the SNP if not only the SNP-Tory gap is wider but the Tory-Rest gap is smaller. The Labour wins in 2017 were clearly a last minute swing and supressed SNP turnout and should be easier to win. But who knows.
It's entirely possible the SNP could get 40% say and make no gains or even a few losses.
Having said that, the by-elections last Thursday on a low turnout were good; 43% for the SNP, 44% on transfers from the Greens and the Tories being transfer toxic. Fingers crossed for this week.