Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Latest YouGov subsample suggests a GAIN for the SNP - and a WIPEOUT for Ruth Davidson's Tories

So, with the caveat that this is only a subsample from a GB poll, albeit a relatively large one that has probably been correctly structured and weighted, here is YouGov's latest estimate of Scottish voting intentions for tomorrow's European election...

SNP 40%, Brexit Party 23%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 9%, Labour 7%, Conservatives 7%, UKIP 2%, Change UK 1%

The seats allocation on those numbers would be: SNP 3, Brexit Party 2, Liberal Democrats 1.

I'd suggest that would be a 'curate's egg' outcome as far as momentum for the independence campaign is concerned - the SNP would gain a seat and would record an all-time high both in terms of votes and seats, and the Ruth Davidson No More Referendums (Theresa May Sponsored Referendums Are OK) Party would be wiped out.  But you can guarantee that the unionist media would focus all their attention on the two seats for the Brexit Party, because that would supposedly show that Scotland is nowhere near as pro-European as Nicola Sturgeon portrays.  What we really need is for the Brexit Party to only win one seat, and for there to be four pro-indy seats (ideally four SNP seats, but three SNP and one Green would be the next best thing).  That's still a perfectly plausible outcome, but it depends on the Brexit Party being a tad less popular than these numbers suggest.  There's no way of engineering it through tactical voting - the only control we can have over it is to raise turnout by getting the pro-indy vote out, because it's pretty likely that the lower the turnout, the better Farage will do.

Incidentally, although the polls have been consistently saying that the SNP should win either three or four seats, I still have some concerns that they might end up with only two.  It's not just the fact that they've underperformed expectations in recent European elections - think also of their 32% showing at the local elections two years ago, which was way, way below what the opinion polls would have led us to expect.  (That even caught John Curtice out - he was still talking about 40% as a potentially disappointing outcome for the SNP well after the results started to come in.)  So there's no room at all for complacency, and we need to get every pro-indy voter we can find to the polling stations tomorrow.

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Here's the latest in Phantom Power's acclaimed Journey to Yes series of films, this time featuring a certain Portuguese-born Yes supporter who will be familiar to a lot of us from Twitter...


  1. 3 seats is a realistic aspiration and for the Greens to take a 4th then some Labour and Lib Dem voters need to shift. Not impossible.

    40% SNP and 9% Green ties in with the Panelbase Indy poll and 3 SNP and 1 other Remain is 66% of the seats which is a solid Remain win. We know about 30% of the vote is Leave and if it all goes to Farage's joke party then they will get 2 seats. There are no real surprises here other than the big two on 7% each. One hopes Remain does even as remotely well in the rest of the UK.

    1. I'm slightly concerned by your comment, because it gives the misleading impression that the SNP cannot win more than three seats. They certainly can win four if they're in the 40s, because the D'Hondt formula favours larger parties. Most polls have put them close to where they'd need to be to have a chance of four - it's just a question of whether the polls are accurate.

    2. Certainly if the higher end of the polls occurs and people do go out and vote then four might well happen. However, past experience of EU election turnouts dampens my expectations. I am going to be on polling station duty tomorrow for the SNP so I do hope people turn up. It is a dreary job if standing by oneself (I don't anticipate any other party having agents out) so I need voters to pass the time.

      Of course the polls could be mince. Will loyal Labour and Tory voters really ditch their parties to that extent? If they do then UK politics never mind Scottish politics may never be quite the same again

    3. How can a party only invented weeks ago be polling the same in Scotland as tory Labour and lib Dems combined?
      They've never chapped a door in Scotland but they've had access to every voter through TV and newspapers.
      This is surely a demonstration of why we must be an independent country.
      This reminds me of the phenomena of Nick Clegg the ego that never flew. Farage is a distraction on the road to Independence.
      We need to get out tomorrow.

  2. So the upshot of the last 24 hours, is that remain/2nd ref MPs hare not going to vote for the WAB because it offers the wrong type of referendum?

    I look forward to see how they are going to stop Brexit now that they have killed of the only vehicle to get any second ref legislation through Parliament.

  3. As James says, the main killer of SNP or Green hopes will be turnout. Hope people do bother, I really don't want two Brexit MEPs :(

    1. The Brexit party hasn't a clue where their votes are.
      The SNP knows where their support is and can gain % of the votes.
      The MEP's elected could be there for 4 or 5 years.
      This EURO poll is probably the most important ever.
      Brexit is topic of the moment but Scottish Statehood is the prize.

    2. I can't see how BP could fail to get two seats in Scotland. More than a third of voters supported Brexit, and there's no other unequivocally pro-Leave party who aren't openly fascist. How could they not make it to 23%?

  4. Imagine living in a country where Andrea Leadsom's actions are considered important.