Just for once we have a by-election outcome where the terminology of 'hold' or 'gain' isn't misleading due to the quirks of the voting system. The Highland ward in Perth & Kinross was firmly Tory territory in the council elections last May, and the vacant seat was successfully retained by the Tories in the by-election yesterday.
Highland ward (Perth & Kinross) by-election result:
Conservatives 46.7% (+1.2)
SNP 35.9% (-0.6)
Independent - Taylor 6.9% (n/a)
Labour 5.8% (n/a)
Greens 2.5% (-1.4)
Liberal Democrats 1.9% (-1.6)
Independent - Baykal 0.3% (n/a)
For my money that's a very solid result for the SNP. Of course they were talking up their chances of winning outright, which any party with even an outside chance always has to do, but the reality is that they would have needed a hefty 4.5% swing from the Tories, which was always improbable given the greater tendency of Tory voters to turn out in lower profile contests. Essentially what we have is a no change outcome - there's been a tiny swing to the Tories, but nothing of any real consequence. That's consistent with the message of the national opinion polls, which suggests that despite all the media hoo-ha over the general election result, the SNP vote has actually held up admirably since June.
* * *
I think someone at Time magazine has a sense of humour - either that, or (and this is more probable) they're just completely clueless. The publication has named Ruth Davidson - I'm not making this up, Ruth Davidson - as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Well, let's put that seemingly improbable claim to the test, shall we? She's an MSP, so the main arena for her influence really ought to be the Scottish Parliament - but she doesn't have much there, even as the leader of the second-largest party. Yes, the SNP government is just short of an outright majority and is sometimes forced to seek arrangements with other parties to get legislation through, but for obvious reasons parties other than the Tories are the usual port of call for any deal-making. So if Davidson is frozen out of power in Scotland, the only conceivable influence she could possibly have would be indirect influence on her fellow Tories in government at Westminster. But what evidence is there that she even has that? She's made two main boasts about what 'her' bloc of MPs at Westminster would achieve over the last year - 1) that the devolution settlement would be protected with amendments made to the EU Withdrawal Bill at the Commons stage, and 2) that powers over fisheries would be repatriated to the UK immediately after Brexit. Both of those claims came to absolutely nothing, and all we've heard from Davidson is how "frustrated" she is that she can't do anything about it. As a general rule, the most influential people in the world get what they want, rather than whinge about being "frustrated" that the opposite of what they want is happening because other people are calling the shots.
I think GA Ponsonby has it nailed - the bogus narrative of 'Ruth the Powerful' is a fairy-tale dreamt up from scratch by the media, and has somehow gained so much traction that even a few people in other countries have started to believe it. This accolade for Davidson will in a few short years look as mind-bogglingly silly as Henry Kissinger winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973.
If SNP are doing 37% with all parties in play plus 2 independents, then they're doing more than holding their vote.
ReplyDeleteThis is prime Tory territory.
They must be concerned they can't shake off the SNP with the MSM and Brexit allegedly working in their favour.
Totally agree, ramstam. This is a very good result for the SNP. It must be the case in Highland Perthshire (as in places like the Borders, Argyll and Moray) that everyone actually from the area is voting for the SNP.
DeleteApart, obviously, from a clutch of sociopaths and other deranged weirds.
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Delete1700 postal votes. Not all Tory postal votes (my old man has a postal vote) but would massively favour the tories. SNP vote predominantly is a local vote though there are some incomers who are attracted to the cause of Independence, Dutch folk the odd English punter, etc. Where the Tory vote is strongest amongst locals is in the countryside rather than the towns, estate workers, the bigger farms etc. There vote comes out all the time though and whether they are actually there or not if you see what I mean.
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DeletePopulation of the highland part of Perthsire has risen since 1981. It declined gradually in the 100 years previously. the more recent arrivals if they are younger people say with kids tend to be more for us. The retirees with some impressive exceptions tend to be against.
DeleteMy good pal who is heavily active with the SNP is considering a campaing of getting more and more of our supporters onto the postal votes. He is dead set against postal voting for all but the infirm and thinks that a big rise in SNP postal votes might see a change in attitude towards postal voting by the authorities.
Good result for SNP in Highland Perthshire. No surprise that the Tories came so resoundingly first given the age profile and general demographics of that part of the 'Big County'.
ReplyDeleteWhen you consider there's barely anyone left in places like Strathtay who comes from Perthsire, it's a miracle that John Swinney and Pete Wishart do so well.
1. She claims to have an open invitation to attend Cabinet meetings (eh?) but neither Theresa May nor the other adults in the Cabinet seem aware of the fact. Is Davidson lying about her own importance?
2. If she is a regular attender of Cabinet meetings, then she knows all about Tory corruption and the dodgy Cambridge Analytica deal. Is Davidson lying about her own lack of importance?
There's a great article by Peter A. Bell in this month's iScot magazine re the fishing debacle. He says:
ReplyDelete"On a scale of one to ten, Davidson's influence isn't on the scale of one to ten. In terms of British politics, she is several promotions away from the rank of nonentity."
LOL
"I think someone at Time magazine has a sense of humour, either that,or they're just completely clueless".
ReplyDeleteTrouble is, they are free to print it - without supporting statistics? Could be the mantra - Freedom of the Press is too generous and some measures to demand supporting evidence in publications is needed asap.
Gordon Brown and The Vow comes to mind.
It's self-explanatory that measuring a person's "influence" is subjective. You can't really prove it with "statistics".
DeleteThere was no vote - Time asked Niall Ferguson, of massive ego fame, to nominate someone.
ReplyDeleteThat's Niall Ferguson, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a right wing GOP-supporting US think tank. Quotes from their alumni include such doozies as "the US made a big mistake leaving Vietnam".
The SNP did very well, especially considering that Labour didn't stand a candidate last time. I'd say we have enough evidence from polls and local by elections to say conclusively that, despite msny people's expectations including mine, not much has changed from the GE.
ReplyDeleteFor a local government by-election the turnout was surprisingly high at just over 56%. In the May 17 local elections the turnout in Highland Ward was 58%. The result was almost exactly identical to the result in May 17 but sadly the Tories did very slightly better at getting their vote out. 34% of the vote was postal and 66% went through the ballot box. The Tories took 53% of the postal vote and the SNP only 29%. The SNP still relies a lot more than the Tories on getting the vote out on the day.
ReplyDeleteJames, Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Libya, Syria and the Iraqi surge come to mind.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't really that "people in other countries have started to believe" the Ruth myth. Niall Ferguson is a Scot and member of the same Unionist/Conservative fraternities as Ruth Davidson. Someone from the US would, obviously, have no idea who she is. It's funny that you mention Kissinger, as NF wrote an approved hagiography of the man himself.
ReplyDeleteI suspect there are many in the nat si movement who are anti Israel and anti semetic/Jew. Kissinger is a Jew and wonder why he was mentioned and for what purpose!
ReplyDeleteState of this mess.
DeleteWurr anti-sematic, whin yurr ahroon, ya fud.
DeleteState of this gibberish.
DeleteAye, bit awe richt, ya hauf-protozoan.
DeleteFetch.
Delete