Just a quick note to let you know I have a new article in the December issue of iScot, pondering whether it's even worth the bother of making political predictions for 2018, given how difficult it's proved recently to forecast election results and other major developments even a few hours in advance. If you're not a subscriber to the print edition of iScot, you can see a preview of the article on Twitter HERE, and a digital copy of the magazine can be purchased HERE.
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Still no sign of the full-scale Scottish poll from Survation that we were told would arrive this week - so unless the timing has slipped, it's probably for one of the Sunday papers, which means we ought to hear about it tonight. It'll be the first full Scottish poll for almost two months, so it's best to be braced for the possibility that there may have been a significant change since the huge SNP leads of September and October. That said, the Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls are still mostly telling a good news story. The latest is from Ipsos-Mori and shows the following: SNP 45%, Labour 24%, Conservatives 17%, UKIP 6%, BNP 3%, Liberal Democrats 2%, Greens 1%. Bear in mind the sample size was extremely small, even by the normal standard of subsamples. Across all firms, twenty-four of the last twenty-six subsamples have put the SNP in first place.
BMP?? Really?? 3 in 100 Scots would vote for them? FFS
ReplyDelete*BNP
DeleteNo, of course they wouldn't. I can explain about small sample sizes until I'm blue in the face, but getting people to actually take that on board is a tougher and seemingly impossible task.
DeleteIt has been taken on board - I get it, a single small sample in isolation has a massive margin of error. It's still shocking to see BNP on the radar though, above the Lid Dems and Greens.
DeleteDo the BNP even exist these days? And what happened to "Britannia"? Haven't heard from them in a few years.
DeleteShouldn't you make it clear that Ipsos -Mori have no connection to the SNP to pre-empt any Unionist claim to the contrary? ��
ReplyDeleteWhich begs the question who or what do Ipsos-Mori have a connection to? At least one of the major polling organisations are owned or partly owned by a blue tory.
ReplyDeleteThe Jock Nat sis and the BNP have a lot in common. 1. They hate anyone who disagrees with them. 2. They are nat sis. 3. They like waving flags. 4. They are bad losers and detest democracy...The Jock nat sis want to sell Scotland out to the EU the BNP do not.
ReplyDeleteVote Labour and remove the nat sis.
The above contributer (GWC2) has been unmasked on another blog as a convicted peadophile.
DeleteYou must know about such things Father!
DeleteI see GWC your lot got 3%
Delete24% ya Jocko knobend English nat si hater... Awa wie ye and crawl up Kaiser Merkels chorus.
DeleteI reckon the SNP will remain the most popular party with a plurality of voters, but its support will decline further. Con + lab + lib combined will get more support.
ReplyDeleteGot a call from Ipsos-Mori this evening (2nd). Was asked the Referendum and how I voted, and my future voting intentions among many other things.
ReplyDeleteCould this be the Scottish Survation poll? Fieldwork 27-30 Nov and 1,017 adults in Scotland interviewed, but no VI published, yet?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sundaypost.com/news/scottish-news/62-of-scots-want-european-powers-moved-to-holyrood-after-brexit-poll-finds/
Jock nat si party say they will back the Irish after Brexit. Not much point when we have left. Just another English hating pro Irish pro EU gesture from the fash...
ReplyDeleteIf the Irish veto then it will have to a hard brexit so go on paddy and do it.
Your argument seems very cogent to me: but I think independentistas will need to face up to the fact that the 'transition period' will probably be the worst possible time to hold an independence referendum -- because during this period, economic relations with the EU will probably flow on exactly as they do now, while the terms on which Scotland would be re-admitted to the EU after independence would not be certainly known. And the Unionists would be vigorously deploying the same argument as is used in N.Ireland at the moment -- 'why drop out of an 'internal' market with our biggest trade partner, in favour of an uncertain relationship with the EU, maybe in second place, but a long way behind?'
ReplyDeleteThe argument, I think, will have to be won on the basis that Scots would run their affairs so much better than the UK ruling cadres do, that a small and uncertain economic disadvantage is a price worth paying.
The price is not worth paying just to satisfy the Jock English haters.
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