Just for once we have an STV by-election result where the classification of "hold" is not misleading - the Tories were defending the Inverurie seat, and also comfortably won the popular vote in the ward in May.
Inverurie & District by-election result (12th October):
Conservatives 48.5% (+12.6)
SNP 33.3% (+5.7)
Liberal Democrats 8.6% (-3.2)
Labour 8.0% (+3.7)
Greens 1.6% (n/a)
What does make interpretation of the result difficult is that the independent candidate Judy Whyte received more than 20% of the votes in May, which were all up for grabs this time. If those voters were predominantly unionist or small 'c' conservative in character, it may not be any great surprise that the Tories have grabbed the lion's share of them. Certainly there was nothing inevitable about the substantial increase in the SNP's own vote (Labour's vote didn't go up by as much and the Lib Dems actually contrived to go backwards), so we're entitled to take heart from that. And, as always, we have to remember that Tory supporters are traditionally more likely to make it to the polls in a low turnout local by-election than supporters of other parties.
Incidentally, since my last update there have been three new Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls, and all of them have shown an SNP lead (albeit a wafer-thin one in the case of today's YouGov poll). The SNP were also ahead in a BMG subsample from September which was published belatedly. That means there have now been thirteen subsamples in a row putting the SNP in front, underscoring the apparent change in the political weather since the summer.
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Have you joined Scot Goes Pop's new Facebook discussion group yet? It's called Scottish Independence Required By Next Tuesday, and it's already attracted several hundred members in its first week. You can join HERE.
If Judy Whyte had been standing, retained her 20% and took it all from the Tory, the Tory vote would have declined - and would SNP have won?
ReplyDeleteNot under a preferential voting system.
DeleteGeorge if my mam had baws she would be my dad. Judy Whyte stood in May and Conservatives won.
Delete81.8% for right wing Conservatism. Who wid hiv thunk it.
ReplyDeleteYour a Arse We don't think it we know it. How did your Commie pals get on?
DeletePaul, respectfully disagree but that thing is no commie. It's ravings are ultra-right-wing authoritarian and have been for years.
DeleteSays the ultra right wing English hating nat sis who wants German economic control over Scotland.
DeleteNazi piece of shit.
One people, one country, one leader!"
DeleteHard to believe that only around 8% consider themselves working class. The Tories and Blair years have clearly had an impact on the accumulated wealth in Scotland... The nat sis have cleary got in the game.
ReplyDeleteCertainly the Scot is also a man, but the flea is also an animal
DeleteOn another subject Herr Junker wants more dosh fae us British tae subsidise the opulent lifestyles of the fascist unelected EU beaurocracy and no doubt Knickerless and her obedient servants will support the anti British line.
ReplyDeleteWork sets you free
DeleteRed White and blue
DeleteI live in the ward and the by election was to replace C. Clark who was voted in by all yoons in Gordon as Westminster MP.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can see J Whyte looks like a tory walks like a tory talks like a tory and votes like a tory.
The EU is failing to intervene on behalf of Catalonia because they are sticking to the law and the Holy Writ of the Spanish constitution.
ReplyDeleteSome people are using this as proof that an independent Scotland would be ejected from the EU and consigned to the outer darkness. In fact it means the exact opposite.
The EU is a creature of law and constitutions. There is no UK constitution beyond the treaty of Union of 1707. A treaty between two sovereign states that can be revoked by either party. No indissoluble union. No single nation. No requirement for 99% of voters in 99% of the states to agree to anything.
Under the law when Scotland becomes independent then so does England and The UK ceases to exist. Both parties inherit EU membership or neither does. That is the inevitable result of their present actions over Catalonia.
It's also the reason why D Cameron refused to ask for a ruling on the matter. He knew the answer and preferred just to lie to people.
Under international law this is as close to 100% as you get. This ruling "against independence movements" actually makes Scotland's case virtually iron clad. This is like the Gary Hart led " loss" before the credentials committee on behalf of George McGovern in 1972....the ruling itself on one hand is a perfect shield on the other. By relying on the constitution solely it actually makes Scotland and the English parliament the only two that can break the union. Also, I believe that rejection of this would then actually put Scotland back under France, not the UK. England dissolving the treaty authority would put it back to the previous situation, which I believe I read years ago meant France had the clearer path....
DeleteKnickerless swallies strepsil tae rid the taste of Junc ker.
ReplyDeleteToday England, tomorrow the world!
DeleteFrau Knickerless just suck on mein fishermans friend und ve vill guarantee you entry to the EU. Oh ya herr junker ist so grossen (cough, choke).
DeleteStrong and stable
DeleteBrexit means brexit
DeleteBritish jam and British biscuits
DeleteNat sis
DeleteDo not vorry about a Hard Brexit Jocko friends vie vill supply you with endless supplies of Bratwurst, mitt pomme frittes mitt tomaten ketchup und mayo. Oor U Boats are on hand with your traditional food.
DeleteYou clucking doughnut.
DeleteGet aff ger knees nat si bhoy. Hermann will treat you with the same contempt as they did Greece.
DeleteFrau Knickerless herr junker is vunderbar look at the smile he puts on my face. Vie vill defeat the Englander together. Vie forgive you Jockos for fighting against our glorious Third Reich. Vie can defeat the Untrmensch together in Europe.
ReplyDeleteKommen and join us Engerland and together Vie can defeat der Jockos Nat sis
DeleteVie bombeded your Clydebank and slaughtered yer Jocko wurkin class yet you wish to give us endless blow jobs.
DeleteUnfortunately we Jocko fascists could not attend the Wannsee Conference due to the Englander. Together we could have sorted out Mr Cohen.
ReplyDeleteThe sockpuppet finally lost the plot. It's ranting at itself....
ReplyDeleteScotland is filthy due to cutbacks by the Nat sis during the past decade. Nat sis doing the old Tory game freezing council tax.
ReplyDeleteState of this.
DeleteMary Doll says the Nat sis will have to work harder for indyref.
DeleteConvince over two million Jocko Unionists to hate the English!
State of this snivelling ultra-right-wing Tory apologist.
DeleteHard Brexit now and no surrender to the Jock fascist EU Quislings. Germany will not doninate Britain
ReplyDeleteAw, isn't that adorable. It thinks it's not ultra-right-wing...
Delete