With all the excitement surrounding the local elections, it appears I overlooked more results from a Scottish-only poll conducted by YouGov towards the end of April. Two results stand out. A total of 36% of respondents say they would at least prefer to vote for a pro-independence party at the general election, and a total of 42% say they would at least prefer to vote for an anti-independence party - which, intriguingly, is a slightly narrower gap than on the headline question about independence.
Even more importantly, the poll suggests that anti-Tory tactical voting could be practically as big a phenomenon in June as anti-SNP tactical voting. 14% of respondents say they will switch tactically to the candidate best-placed to beat the Tories if their own preferred party cannot win in their constituency, while 17% say they will switch to the candidate best-placed to beat the SNP. The difference between those two numbers is within the margin of error.
The snag for the unionist camp is that the Tories are the main challengers in most seats where the SNP are thought to be vulnerable, so it could well be that the two types of tactical voting will more or less cancel each other out in those seats. The much-heralded unionist Brucie Bonus may not materialise at all. Logically, it will be a different story if Labour or the Lib Dems are the main challengers in a constituency, but that's where local election results like the one in East Renfrewshire become a bit problematical...
East Renfrewshire local election result :
Conservatives 38.3% (+8.6) : 15,588 votes
SNP 24.3% (+4.5) : 9,886 votes
Labour 17.4% (-13.7) : 7,073 votes
Liberal Democrats 2.2% (-1.2) : 907 votes
Greens 1.4% (+0.6) : 571 votes
Total valid votes : 40,699
For the next month, Blair McDougall will be traipsing around East Renfrewshire telling anyone who will listen : "Only I can beat the SNP. Unite behind my Labour campaign to defeat the SNP." But if enough people have spotted that Labour are actually on course for third place, a fair few may start replying : "Sorry, Big McD, I normally vote Labour, but this time I'm going to vote for the sitting SNP MP Kirsten Oswald to keep the Tories out."
A lot of the new conservative voters aren't tactical voters, however. They are voting for something in which they genuinely believe. That's not tactical voting. That's just voting.
ReplyDeleteThey're Nazis voting for a Nazi. Call them what they are.
DeleteBet your Mother's proud of you. Voting for Nazis and all.
New tory voters in glasgow= orangemen and bigots
DeleteThe NHS supporting, immigrant loving, welfarist, multiculturalist, socially liberal tories a Nazi party? Oh come on! :0)
DeleteJaggythistle is the real bigot. The Nat sis need a bogey man and it is the Tories or anyone else who disagrees with them. You Nat sis hate over half of the Scottish population. You are dangerous to the well being of Scottish society. You are scum and will be opposed.
DeleteDid anyone watch the French election outcome tonight? I love the way the French do their presidential election. First round, top two go through to second round, winner of second round takes the presidency. It's a perfect model of democracy - but simple and easy to grasp. Imagine our General Election was comprised of 650 French style elections in each constituency. How many SNP MPs would there be in Scotland? A handful, at best.
DeleteThe above recommendation is fanciful, but one thing is certain - FPTP has to go.
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/05/06/every-loser-wins-at-least-when-its-a-tory-in-scotland/
DeleteA tory advocating that FPTP needs to go.
DeleteOh ma sides.
It's possible you're correct if so they're voting unionism and will have to accept the consequences of voting for another Conservative government. Good luck to them, I just hope they remember it was a conscious decision on their part.
ReplyDeleteThey're not playing with a Ouija board in a horror film - they're voting for a largely centrist type party that believes in defending the integrity and sovereignty of the nation. This is not the Tory party of the 1980s. Things have moved on - the old dinosaur arguments against them no longer apply.
DeleteOpen your eyes, Aldo - in many respects they're much more right-wing than their predecessors.
DeletePretty sure Churchill and Thatcher were more right wing than Cameron and May. Even Major was to the right of this government - with back to basics and the privatisation of rail. Our staggeringly high NHS budget grows every year as does our welfare budget. Immigration is through the roof. This is not a right wing party in the traditional sense although it is convenient for some to try and portray them as such for political gain.
DeleteWho said anything about Cameron? He's long gone, get over it.
DeleteStill in denial James. The Nat sis are on an equal footing politically with the Tories. Thatcher would be proud of you Nat si jokers.
DeleteIm thrilled to be riding the goat again tonight. Aldo is joining me for a huge knees up in celebration of the Tories thrashing the Nat sis.
DeleteSticking to the old Jock tradition impersonator. The English shag your women and you the livestock. Bah.
DeleteI mention Cameron because the current government has had two prime ministers - neither of whom are particularly right wing. Cameron did the cuts, but had very little choice in the matter - Labour crashed the economy.
DeleteThe SNP are trying to play it cool over the Tory surge but are failing badly; "I'm not bothered! We're still on top! Look at them, a distant second! Haha! It doesn't bother us, really, honesty it doesn't! Totally not bothered. Look at this face, does it look bothered...stupid tories.....oh GOD WHY?!? Why Scotland? Why THEM?? (sob!). Why did you have to run off with THEM? I'm going to have to reassess the entire foundation of my political beliefs and how I view my own people. Don't you realise how difficult that is!!! I loved it when all we had to do was shout TOARIE and everyone ran for the hills. Now yous think its a fecking recommendation!!"
DeleteCall me weird, Aldo, but I tend to cope with comfortable election victories pretty well. I do salute you, though, for putting on such a brave face in the wake of yet another Tory defeat.
DeleteA Tory defeat perhaps, but a unionist victory overall. And thats what really matters at the end of the day. Are there enough secessionists to justify / win a second referendum? Going by that low energy performance, probably not.
DeleteCall me weird but the Tories and their Tartan pals won.
Delete"but a unionist victory overall"
DeleteNot at all. You guys went for broke and fell short.
Lib/Lab/evil ones - 49%
DeleteSNP/Greens - 37% (of seats).
Unionist victory - and a unionist overall majority if at least 1% of those independents are pro UK (its safe to assume that is the case).
It's just maths James. I thought you were good at it.
James has an Irish calculator that omits the minus. The majority British subsidise the Jocks and Paddies and they press the plus button.
DeleteOh, I get by. I know, for example, that 51 is a bigger number than 49. How about you, Aldo?
Delete49 is also bigger than 37
Delete55 is bigger than 45
52 is bigger than 48
All recent figures thrown up by public votes, all ignored by the SNP.
This:
Deletehttps://wingsoverscotland.com/if-france-had-unionists/
Loving the Rev's work on how 276 is more than 431 in Unionist media land, and reductio ad absurdum.
The Dug's eye view, too:
Deletehttps://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/05/06/every-loser-wins-at-least-when-its-a-tory-in-scotland/
62 is > 38...ignored by the Tories in London....
DeleteAldo still hoping every Labour and Libdem voter will flip to Tory in GE in June....He and Effie will hold a meeting about it.
ReplyDeleteUnder the banner Tactical voting for geriatric menaces....
When your revival fails to come to much you need to garner all the votes and pretend you somehow won.....
My ward is North Lanarkshire, Tories went from 0-10 ...However they were still 22 behind the corrupt Labour lot and 23 behind the Nationalists.
So nowhere in reality. All tha happened is some suckers moved from Lab to Tory. It never really impacted the result, just moved seats around. OK Nationalists are the biggest party now and I'm sure thats OK by Aldo.
I recall Labour at the Scottish Labour Conference saying that after thrashing the SNP in the SGE the next wipeout for the SNP would be the Council elections, followed by loud cheers.
ReplyDeleteThe opposite happened.