Given the distinct lack of full-scale Scottish polls at such a crucial stage of the campaign (you'd hope there might be one in the Sunday papers but I haven't heard any rumours), it probably makes sense to keep a particularly close eye on the rolling average of Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls. Here is the average of the three subsamples to be conducted since the suspension of campaigning on Tuesday, updated after the publication of new Opinium and ComRes polls over the last couple of hours. This may give a better indication of the true state of the race than yesterday's update, which was very heavily skewed by an unusual Kantar/TNS subsample. As you can see, there is continued evidence of a modest Labour recovery, although the jury is still out on whether those extra votes are coming more from the Tories or the SNP.
The SNP's national lead over Labour still seems to be 20+ points, which means Labour have little hope of making a telling breakthrough in terms of seats unless they can significantly outperform the national swing in specific geographical areas (which is why practically their entire campaign is a begging letter addressed to Tory supporters).
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
SNP 42.3% (-2.7)
Conservatives 29.0% (+5.0)
Labour 21.7% (-0.5)
Liberal Democrats 4.7% (-2.7)
The ComRes subsample had only 39% who voted SNP in 2015 and 20% who voted Tory which is more than voted for them.
ReplyDeleteSo between them the two Tories accumulate 71.3% from the poll.
ReplyDeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
Nothing you can make that can't be made.
No one you can save that can't be saved.
Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
The 'modest Labour recovery' is still a couple of points below the 24.3 they polled in the 2015 GE. I really am curious to see how many Scots will hold their noses and vote Tory in this one.
ReplyDeleteThe prosperity gained by the lower classes during the past 50yrs has turned them Tory.... However they vote Nat si because of they cannot admit to being Tory....Poor Labour who fought the fight and the Nat sis are now the hypocrites on the block....pretending they are not Tory.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
Nothing you can make that can't be made.
No one you can save that can't be saved.
Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
You don't have write a load of nonsense are you really for real. Come on then since you are so clever tell as all who to vote for and why?
DeleteVote Labour or you get the two Tory parties and or the Liberal tim nice but dim Tory reserve party.
Delete