Some more information about the Panelbase poll

The datasets for Saturday night's Panelbase poll have been published, and the big surprise is that it appears as if 16 and 17 year olds were included in the sample.  At one point, the poll was listed on Wikipedia as definitely excluding under-18s, so if that was dud information, my apologies for repeating it here.

Looked at one way, this is bad news, because it means there's less reason for suspecting that the 45% Yes vote on the independence question may be a slight underestimate.  It also means that, if anything, the SNP's share of the vote in Westminster voting intentions could be a slight overestimate - because of course, young people are disproportionately likely to support the SNP, and under-18s won't be able to vote in June.  However, here comes the good news - both Yes and the SNP suffered in this poll from the effect of rounding.  It looks like the SNP must have been just a tiny fraction away from being rounded up to 45%, rather than rounded down to 44%.  The Tories were also rounded up a touch to 33%.  On the unrounded numbers, the SNP lead over the Tories is a little over 11.5%, rather than the 11% reported on the headline numbers.  The effect of rounding on the independence question was less significant, but nevertheless the unrounded numbers are a tad better : Yes 45.2%, No 54.8%.

Once again, the extent to which the rump Labour vote under Jim Murphy in 2015 was Tory-leaning has been laid bare by this poll - less than half of 2015 Labour voters are planning to stick with the party, while almost a quarter have moved direct to the Tories.  Only 8% have moved to the SNP.  It would be fascinating to ask the 13% of the electorate that are still sticking with Labour who their second-choice party would be.  That group is so small in number that it's hard to even guess who they are and what motivates them.  It certainly doesn't seem to be a 'working class' thing, though - Labour's support is only a little higher among the less affluent part of the sample than among the most affluent.  As you'd expect, they do significantly better among No voters from 2014, although mystifyingly, 8% of Yes voters have stayed loyal to them.  (On the plus side, that means there may still be some limited scope for a further Labour-to-SNP swing, unless that 8% is composed almost entirely of people who have changed their minds on independence since the referendum.)