Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Significant Survation survey puts Yes on a solid 47% - leaving YouGov totally isolated

For the love of God, will you give me a chance to draw breath, chaps?  This is the third poll in the space of an hour!  The Survation one is kind of middling news for the independence movement - it doesn't corroborate the suggestions from BMG and Ipsos-Mori that there has been a recent swing towards independence (possibly even one that nudges Yes into a slight lead).  But on the other hand it leaves tonight's YouGov poll looking even more like an extreme outlier - Survation's figures are pretty close to BMG's, and somewhat closer to Ipsos-Mori's than to YouGov's.  Survation's fieldwork is also more up-to-date than YouGov's, so there's no obvious reason to suppose that YouGov are just blazing a trail in picking up a trend that other firms haven't yet had a chance to detect.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation)

Yes 47% (n/c)
No 53% (n/c)

This is the first poll from any firm to have been entirely conducted after Nicola Sturgeon pulled the trigger for Indyref 2.  Obviously it's important not to rely too much on any individual poll, but on the face of it the suggestions that Monday's announcement might backfire have proved wide of the mark.  And, in fairness, it also looks like the excitement of a second referendum has yet to produce any sort of bandwagon effect for Yes either.

It should be noted that Survation were the firm that conducted the Sunday Post's recent pensioners-only poll, so tonight's figures should assuage any concerns that the swing to No in the Post poll might have been symptomatic of a similar swing across the wider population.  But we'll have to wait for the datasets from the new poll to discover whether there is an unusually high No vote among the oldest age group (if there is, it obviously must have been offset by Yes doing better among younger people).

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Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46.8% (-1.2)
No 53.2% (+1.2)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each firm that has reported at least once within the last three months. The firms included in the current sample are Panelbase, BMG, Ipsos-Mori, YouGov and Survation.)

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UPDATE : The Survation datasets have now been released, and it looks like the information we were given about the fieldwork dates was false - the poll was actually conducted at around the same time as the YouGov poll.  So we're still awaiting the first poll to have been wholly conducted after Nicola Sturgeon's announcement - which will obviously be a key moment when it arrives.


  1. Theresa Trumpette and her revolting kipper toriesMarch 15, 2017 at 12:14 AM

    We started in the very low 30s last time so hardly an invidious position to be in at the very beginning of the campaign.

    The westminster bubble fools also seem to have forgotten that the last Independence campaign was undertaken with SNP membership in the low 20,000s. It's is now above 120,000.

    The idea the SLAB or SCON can come remotely close to matching that is sheer hilarity. Nor can SCON rely on Labour taking the lead or bussing up activists from south of the border this time.

    There's also the small matter of almost 50% of scots voters voting SNP and, depending on the poll, basically 50% supporting Independence. Which is why the pitiful smears are doomed to utter failure. Everyone in scotland knows an SNP supporter or voter. Which means the more lunatic and desperate the lies and smears, the less inclined the scottish public are to believe a single word the westmisnter bubble and unionist dominated media says.

    Even the inept BritNat media can't keep up the wall-to-wall 24/7 rabidly comical smears and lies for two years.

    When the Brexit reality starts to bite and the incompetent, out of their depth three Brexitears start panicking, they can hardly hide that.

    These tory clowns can't have a budget without another omnishambles and they seriously expect to competently negotiate one of the most complex series of trade agreements and the politically charged consequences of each multi-faceted step of a hideously complex negotiation?

    Aye, right ye are! :D

    1. On the issue of finding activists for No - surveys show there is a much larger core of hardline No voters than hardline Yes voters. Probably, activists will be drawn from these groups, so No should have no trouble. Also of course, they'll be rolling in cash and have almost all the media on side.

    2. "Probably, activists will be drawn from these groups, so No should have no trouble."

      Yeah sure, the tories will just walk into the housing schemes and people will flock to their banner and spend their valuable time campaigning for them.


  2. KipperTory Trumpets for unityMarch 15, 2017 at 12:17 AM

    Michael Gray‏ @GrayInGlasgow 8 hours ago

    Ukip Scotland MEP David Coburn is still employing a recently convicted multiple sex offender, Arthur Thackeray, according to the EU website.

    1. Scotland is endemic with sex offenders in a certain church. You should avoid going down that road!

    2. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

    3. nom nom nom bitey bitey bitey.

  3. The Survation poll is very significant- it was carried out on the day and after the announcement - when any expected backlash would be strongest. Instead it shows no change, and the ScotCen study backs up recent polls that no is just ahead.

    1. The Great Brexit BumblefuckMarch 15, 2017 at 12:26 AM

      Makes sense really. Apart from the predictable westminster bubble clueless anger, and the most rabid yoons fake outrage, it was hardly a secret to the scottish public that this was coming after the Brexit farce and shambles.

      Indeed, SCON and SLAB spent basically 90% of their time shrieking about the next Independence Referendum for the Westminster election campaign and for the scottish election campaign. And of course every single chance they got there after.

      Since both were trying to lock down the hardline BritNat Yoon vote.

    2. I agree. It had crossed my mind that there could possibly be a backlash once people knew the referendum would be a reality. However given the idea has been floated since last June, I also suspected it wouldn't make much difference and it appears that is the case.

      I would also say something similar about the ideas thag those who voted yes in 2014 and leave in 2016 will all vote no this time. The idea of independence to stay in the EU has been floated for 9 months now - when they say they'd vote yes in opinion polls, they know what they'd voting for.

    3. The Great Brexit BumblefuckMarch 15, 2017 at 1:04 AM

      There's still the prevailing air of unreality and the calm before the storm/hurricane that surrounds Brexit to take into account.

      Basically, all May has done for months is appease the most hardcore Brextremists in her own party to try and keep her own party from exploding into a split. Any long term plan or coherent policy over Brexit is self-evidently very much a secondary concern.

      I mean, look at the 'Brains Trust' she put in charge of Brexit? Aye, not exactly chosen for their ability, were they?

      So you do have people on both sides of the Brexit vote in scotland who voted No last IndyRef simply taking their time to see just how bad things are going to get.

      But there are undoubtedly some European minded previous Indy No's who can see the slow train coming and have moved extremely firmly to Yes.

      I would guess most of the pro-Brexit Yes turned No will want to wait a fair bit longer before they decide definitively.

      It's one thing to put Brexit before Indy when there isn't the prospect of Indy. Now that it's back on the table and beginning to be a very real prospect things should gradually change.

  4. Johnny‏ @JohnnyDundee 12 hours ago

    Unionist politicians must just keep saying stuff. Doesn't matter if it's nonsense. It's the news. It's a headline. It's important #ScotRef

  5. Theresa Trumpette and her revolting kipper toriesMarch 15, 2017 at 1:14 AM

    Lindsay Bruce‏ @RogueCoder250 29 hours ago

    Theresa May, the unelected Prime Minister with ONE MP in Scotland, denying Scotland a vote on its future.

    Just let that sink in.

    1. We do not elect Prime Ministers or indeed First Ministers. So stop lying.

    2. the troll really is that stupid
      thick tory twat

    3. Ok Nat si when was there an election for PM or FM. Dates required in your answer.



    5. The Nat sis don't want elections Osalmond Bin laden and Jihadi John (Swinney) want to take Scotland into a Holy Jihad.

    6. Absolute bloody state of this roaster. Away back to Breitbart before daylight burns you.

  6. Am I right in thinking that there was a drop in the support for Yes immediately after the first referendum was called? Hence a cold feet wobble/anti-independence backlash which didn't transpire this time?

  7. The YouGov poll was obviously an outlier. They happen.

  8. I have had a look through the Scot Goes Pop archives and there is a difference with the polls now than the first referendum. The Yes side were so far behind in all polls until the final couple of months. Chalk and Cheese.

  9. "It's one thing to put Brexit before Indy when there isn't the prospect of Indy. Now that it's back on the table and beginning to be a very real prospect things should gradually change."

    I agree that people who oppose membership of the EU can be won back, but it will take some work. An 'eat yer cereal' approach will not work.

    The attitude to the EU should be that Scotland should decide, perhaps in a referendum or perhaps in an post-indy parliamentary election. Tying independence to a relatively unpopular institution (as the SSAS showed) is a mistake.

  10. YouGov datasets have just been relased, theres been a swing to yes among ABC1 (Yes: 49% No: 51%) but a huge swing away among C2DE (Yes: 37% No: 63%). That is extremely unusual.

  11. "YouGov datasets have just been relased, theres been a swing to yes among ABC1 (Yes: 49% No: 51%) but a huge swing away among C2DE (Yes: 37% No: 63%). That is extremely unusual."

    Seems odd but would make sense if there has been a move to No by Yes/Leave voters.

  12. I posted this on another page but if you check out the percentages for the 2015 result the only one that's close to right is the conservative. SNP are on 46.77% according to them.

    If you claim you've weighed something according a given criteria then it'd help if you actually did so.

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