For the love of God, will you give me a chance to draw breath, chaps? This is the third poll in the space of an hour! The Survation one is kind of middling news for the independence movement - it doesn't corroborate the suggestions from BMG and Ipsos-Mori that there has been a recent swing towards independence (possibly even one that nudges Yes into a slight lead). But on the other hand it leaves tonight's YouGov poll looking even more like an extreme outlier - Survation's figures are pretty close to BMG's, and somewhat closer to Ipsos-Mori's than to YouGov's. Survation's fieldwork is also more up-to-date than YouGov's, so there's no obvious reason to suppose that YouGov are just blazing a trail in picking up a trend that other firms haven't yet had a chance to detect.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Survation)
Yes 47% (n/c)
No 53% (n/c)
This is the first poll from any firm to have been entirely conducted after Nicola Sturgeon pulled the trigger for Indyref 2. Obviously it's important not to rely too much on any individual poll, but on the face of it the suggestions that Monday's announcement might backfire have proved wide of the mark. And, in fairness, it also looks like the excitement of a second referendum has yet to produce any sort of bandwagon effect for Yes either.
It should be noted that Survation were the firm that conducted the Sunday Post's recent pensioners-only poll, so tonight's figures should assuage any concerns that the swing to No in the Post poll might have been symptomatic of a similar swing across the wider population. But we'll have to wait for the datasets from the new poll to discover whether there is an unusually high No vote among the oldest age group (if there is, it obviously must have been offset by Yes doing better among younger people).
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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 46.8% (-1.2)
No 53.2% (+1.2)
(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each firm that has reported at least once within the last three months. The firms included in the current sample are Panelbase, BMG, Ipsos-Mori, YouGov and Survation.)
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UPDATE : The Survation datasets have now been released, and it looks like the information we were given about the fieldwork dates was false - the poll was actually conducted at around the same time as the YouGov poll. So we're still awaiting the first poll to have been wholly conducted after Nicola Sturgeon's announcement - which will obviously be a key moment when it arrives.