A couple of weeks ago, I jetted off (if you can jet off by train) to a top-secret mystery town somewhere between Dunblane and Bannockburn (it's got a big castle in it) to record a video about the Holyrood voting system for the brilliant Phantom Power. The intention was very much to avoid this being a "propaganda" film - although I do explain my view that so-called "tactical voting on the list" is an enormous risk, I only do that in the final few minutes. I've felt all along that the main reason some people find the arguments of the tactical voting lobby so seductive is that the basic principles behind the AMS voting system aren't widely understood. So the bulk of the video simply explains in relatively neutral terms how AMS is supposed to work (with the composition of parliament determined by the list vote and not the constituency vote), but how the Scottish version of the system makes things a little less simple than they should be. I then describe the theory of how "tactical voting on the list" is meant to deliver more pro-independence MSPs, before offering my own opinion that it's an extremely bad idea, and could easily backfire badly.
If you have any problem with the embedded video at the top of this post, the direct YouTube link is HERE.
Also, if you're looking for a video in which both sides of the argument get an equal airing, don't forget my Independence Live debate with Tommy Sheridan from a few weeks ago - that can be viewed HERE.
Nice video - very clear, very fairly presented, and your presentation yet of the case against tactical list voting.
ReplyDeleteNice summary.
ReplyDeleteI would prefer to see a few more Greens at the expense of unionist MSPs, but it just isn't worth the risk if the SNP falls short on the day.
That might look unlikely according the current polls, but it isn't even worth an odds-on gamble.
Sometimes the 50-1 horse comes in when the favourite stumbles.
You assume that only SNP / Green / Socialist MSPs can be pro separation. But, given Labour and the Lib Dems timidity in defending the union and removing party rebels, who's to say that a large contingent of the 'unionist' cohort wont actually be pro-separation as well?
DeleteOnly Tory and UKIP would be strong in upholding the UK. The latter have very little chance of achieving anything. So tory it is.
Aldo
Perhaps,but there's a limited number of Scots who will vote for a party led by a Bullingdon boy.This is,after all,the 21st century.
DeleteThe real problem is that it's a gamble either way. On current polling it's very possible that an SNP regional vote will be wasted (as happened in Lothian in 2011) and by not voting for a different pro-Indy Party, you will be assuring the election of another anti-Indy MSP. It's not a matter of certainty versus uncertainty but of a decion that carries risk whatever you do or don't do.
DeleteAll you can do is assess what is most likely to happen in your particular region and the constituencies that make it up and then choose using that and how you also feel about Parties and candidates.
"The real problem is that it's a gamble either way."
DeleteSigh. The gamble is in voting for your second-choice party and then regretting it because it backfires. People are much less likely to regret voting for their first-choice party, however things work out. But the arithmetical reality is that most (admittedly not all) scenarios that could lead to "tactical" list votes costing us the pro-independence majority involve people abandoning the SNP.
I'd be interested to know what your own agenda here is, incidentally, because you've been banging the drum on this subject for some time. What's your political affiliation? (Full disclosure : I've been a member of the SNP for about a year and a half.)
Any region where you get more seats, or exactly the same, at constituency level that you would on the list might be classed as wasted votes on the list. The best prospect for that happening is the Lib Dems in the Highlands and Islands and Conservatives in South. That later is why even if Labour do poll higher than them in both ballots they might still be third on seat numbers.
DeleteJames
DeleteThe question here is how people should vote to maximise the effectiveness of their vote - not how you think they should vote to make themselves feel good. Even if you were able to predict their emotions with such accuracy. And there is clearly a strong possibility that a regional SNP vote will not elect any MSPs because of SNP success in the constituencies. In those circumstances, some people may feel they would prefer to try to use that vote to elect MSPs from another Party they are sympathetic to, rather than allowing the election of those to whom they are not.
In reality it's quite difficult to construct plausible "scenarios that could lead to 'tactical' list votes costing us the pro-independence majority [which] involve people abandoning the SNP". Without a single list seat the SNP can gain a majority with 65 out of 73 constituencies. Even if the Lib Dems retain Orkney and Shetland and the Conservatives get four in South Scotland and Eastwood, they still get 66. In that case, the SNP will get extra compensating seats in H&I and South anyway.
The constituencies that the SNP can gain from Labour are in areas the SNP did particularly well in last year, so those gains seem likely. So unless the SNP actually lose seats they won last time - possible, though with an SNP constituency percentage at least 5 points higher than 2011, not very likely, then an SNP majority is pretty much assured never mind a pro-Indy one. I suspect that the constituency percentage may even be a few points under because of Greens etc telling pollsters they will vote for their Party when they can't.
For this near-cleansweep not to happen the polls have to be wrong when they've been fairly reliable in Scotland recently. The biggest failure was on the regional vote back in 2011 and an underestimate here would have little difference unless it was really big. Alternatively there might be a lower turnout among SNP supporters, but that would be another big change on the immediate past.
Now there is a moral argument that people shouldn't tactically vote on the regional vote - other than those who are or have to vote tactically on the constituency and are reverting to their true allegiance. It could be claimed that Labour, Conservative and so on deserve those list seats, which the system is designed to give them, and therefore SNP voters shouldn't switch even though they suspect their vote will otherwise have no effect. But that's not an argument I'm hearing at the moment from SNP supporters.
Oh, and as you're so concerned with my "agenda", I have to inform you that I don't really have one, other than trying to find out what polls and electoral statistics can tell us about what people think and explore the risks and possible benefits of voting behaviours. I'm not a member of any Party and don't even have a vote in Scotland. I'm pretty much neutral in all this - I genuinely don't know how I would have voted in the referendum for example.
DeleteWell done young man. I agree with Onwards, in that it is a risk too far.
ReplyDeleteEric Joyce has a short and rather good explanatory piece up.
ReplyDeletehttp://ericjoyce.co.uk/2016/04/in-scotlands-election-head-and-heart-votes-are-the-same-thing/
I'm getting a malicious warning for that page.
DeleteExcellent, just what was needed. I only hope it will get through to enough people in the few days remaining.
ReplyDeleteThe list vote is really (or at least should be) the key vote, it´s NOT in any way a ¨second choice¨. My fear is that some voters may be confused by various transferable vote systems used or proposed elsewhere.
Oh well, the agony of anticipation will soon be over now :-)
As an old man who remembers Halliday and Donaldson I am convinced that the SNP hold the key to Indy and that to split the Indy vote is unwise.
ReplyDeleteFair enough after Indy vote for anyone you like but let's have some discipline for the moment as Independence is inevitable provided we close ranks and hold the line.
We Unionist inspite of our political differences will close ranks if required.
DeleteDon't feed the troll, folks.
DeleteAs an old man you will never see the Union split so put yer teeth in the tumbler and go tae bed.
DeleteDon't feed the troll, folks.
DeleteOnce again, I can only point out the basic economic facts - a huge deficit, no currency and quite possibly no EU membership either. As independence is economic suicide and any fool can see it, someone will prevent it - be it the Scottish people or the British government or the SNP themselves (who wants to come into possession of a ruined land?)
DeleteAldo
The so-called united kingdom is certainly ruined - economically and politically.
DeleteHow can you have a huge deficit if you've no currency?
Delete5th largest economy in the world, Dan - with public provision that most countries in the world can only dream of. It certainly isn't ruined. The nats would like it to be though - you are SO negative!
DeleteA. Haddow, Scotland would need to have a currency and most likely would issue its own. But that's not what the SNP tell us we'll get and not what the people want.
Aldo
http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/
Deletetick tock
The National debt is smaller than the size of our economy. If you earned £30,000 pounds a year, would you panic over a mortgage of, say, £25000? It seems to me that would be perfectly manageable. Scale that up to a country and you're talking billions and trillions but the same principle essentially applies. Japan's debt is twice the size of its economy. They're still doing fine. The total debt figure isn't a problem provided A) lenders have confidence in you, and B) You can service the debt. Britain is sound on both of those points. I'm not sure an independent Scotland would be - with a 9% deficit and socialist spending aspirations.
DeleteAldo
The clock is ticking for all of us Dan - although you've probably got a bit less time left than me.
DeleteTick tock! ;0)
Aldo
No fan of the SNP or Independence - but this is an excellent and informative video
ReplyDeleteExcellent film. To me it is not as simple as perhaps it could be regards the system, it is a gamble as you say. I do think many people really do not understand exactly how the Scottish voting works, was it made to confuse?
ReplyDeleteAlthough independence is crucial to Scotland's future, this election is also about exactly who it is that the people trust to lead a forward looking, modern, democratic government. One that works for the people in the interests of the people, not the other way around as is the case in westmonster.
A very good, informative video. Personally, I'm trying to figure out how to vote to *minimise* the number of pro-separatist MSPs (my flatmate has banned me from putting up a 'North British not Scottish' banner on the window because windows are expensive to replace...) in the Parliament but first and foremost, I'm a democrat who believes its important that everyone understands how the system works and votes accordingly.
ReplyDeleteIf I was a bricklayer and was short of bricks, I'd put up that sign.
DeleteAldo
Out of curiosity, is there a single confirmed instance of someone getting a brick through their window for putting up a Unionist poster?
DeleteI don't think the theory was ever tested as everyone was afraid of getting bricked!
DeleteAldo
Anonymous
ReplyDeleteI am 100%in favour of Scotland remaining part of the UK and am Scottish and British.
I would never dream of displaying a poster saying 'North British not Scottish' that strikes me as unnecessarily risky, counter productive, and in the case of the vast majority of No voters simply not true.
The Nat sis seem at one now with their Tory pals over tax. The Nat sis are where the Tories want them, in the politics of greed. Shite rolls down hills and the Nat sis have joined the Tories at the bottom.
ReplyDeleteGWC, the nats know they can't upset the horses too much otherwise their supportive coalition will fall apart. They presumably plan to get indy and then, once the middle classes and aspiring working people have been fooled into voting for their own demise, then they'll hit us with all the Peoples' Socialist and Democratic (honest!) Republic nonsense. The problem is, there isn't really the scope for hard left politics in Scotland. There needs to be wealth there to tax - and the few genuinely wealthy people will simply leave. I've driven down the M74 a few times - there's nothing to it.
DeleteAldo
They're putting the band back together...
DeleteWell that's now the last two polls that put the Labour Party into third place in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteIt seems all the 'True Unionists' in the Labour movement, have been re-thinking their loyalties, and have been shifting en-masse to the Tories, as they see them as the only truly Unionist party in Scotland.
Kez's 'Car-Crash with Bernard' wouldn't have helped Labour's chances either, as she is clearly way out of her depth.
So with the Labour Party looking more and more like a 'busted flush' it looks like Unionism will have to depend on the Tories telling Scots to 'get to the back of the bus'
Hmmmm... that should go down well!
Are you seriously comparing the situation in Scotland to that of black people in pre 1960s America?
DeleteAldo
Do you think I'm Ken Livingstone or something?
DeleteInteresting - some very positive responses to your film from Unionists in these comments!
ReplyDeletePersonally, as a Green, I'll be voting Green on the List, but my concern is that the "2 Votes Same vs 2 Votes Different" argument has taken our attention away from the need to ensure 1st Vote SNP.
I can understand that. The way I see it is that's the safest tactic for independence. For many, that comes before a game of trading votes. There are also plenty of SNP supporters who see greens as 'soft' on independence. Your comment would seem to back that up. FWIW, I think the Greens will do well and many SNP supporters will lend them their vote. But it's not a strategy without risk.
DeleteHi Anonymous, Completely agree that games of trading are not the point, and accusing others of being 'soft' is not going to help us over the long term either. I wrote an article on Bella before the 2015 GE pointing out that many fellow Greens were voting SNP not Green for that election, however I've noticed many non-SNP Yes voters moving away from the SNP ahead of this election and that concerns me. I'm afraid you can't antagonise me out of that concern by accusing me of being 'soft' on independence. I'm not, I just happen to think having a planet that is inhabitable for humans is maybe also important. Or maybe it isn't?
DeleteI do wonder if the tone of some of the 'Both votes SNP' crowd has put some of the supporters of other Parties off - not just Greens but Lib Dems and Labour in Tory constituencies from voting for the SNP tactically. Certainly the MORI poll showed 5% support for Greens in the constituencies - unless they are going to get every single vote in the three they are standing in, I suspect there are going to be some disappointed voters in the polling booths. It will be interesting to see if there is an increase in those voting region-only (it was under 2000 last time).
DeleteI wonder what effect unionist tactical voting will have in the constituencies? The SNP are not starting from the low base that they did in the context of the 2015 UK election. They were already very high in the popular vote share in 2011 (around 45%). So what is happening now represents a modest increase on that. Could liblabtoryukip gang up on the SNP in marginals and overtake the modest lift that the SNP are likely to receive?
ReplyDeleteIf pro UK tactical voting claws back a few constituencies - and the Greens do well on the list - the SNP going under 65 seats may not be as far fetched as some may have thought.
Aldo
It didn't work at the Brit GE with the possible exception of Edinburgh South. It is even less likely to work for Holyrood Elections unless something bizarre happens. The SNP have also always done better at Holyrood Elections than Wastemonster ones. I don't see this election being any different.
DeleteTactical voting wont save Tavish in Shetland for instance where his entire campaign has been all about trying to distance himself from Carmichael and the disastrous coalition years with the Tories in Wastemonster.
Oh and Alex Ferguson retiring in Galloway wont help the Tories there. I bet they wished he was younger. Ferguson might have accrued a few tactical votes as he is one of the Tories it is hard to dislike. You cant say that about most of the rest of them.
I could of course be wrong as there have been 700,000 Postal Vote application's apparently. They would be a bit difficult for the Ruthless one to sample on the back of a Buffalo and she might have a job sampling them in the confined spaces of a tank.
I wonder what effect unionist tactical voting will have in the constituencies?
DeleteVery little. The only Party that really seems to benefit from tactical unionist voting is the Lib Dems (they actually increased their percentage vote in three Scottish seats in 2015 - though it wasn't enough to save them). It's possible (maybe Edinburgh Western?) but difficult without any sitting mainland MSPs.
If you look at transfer patterns in local elections, maybe 30% of the Tory vote will transfer to Labour, so it's going to be even lower to get Conservatives to give Labour their first preference. Given that tight Lab-SNP seats have few Tories to start with it won't do much good. For Labour the'r transfers are as likely to go SNP as Con, so it makes no difference.
For all we know, tactical voting saved Scotland from becoming a one party state - preserving the four party status (just), and providing the government with a legitimate secretary of state for Scotland. There are 14 seats in this election in a competitive state - anything is possible.
Deletet makes my auld heart sing to see the Unionists fighting like alley cats over second place in a Scottish election with less than 40% of the vote between them and no a snawball's chance in hell of ever doing better1
ReplyDeleteIt gladdens my heart to see the Yoon Brit Nats collectively tearing at each other over the EU like pit bulls that haven't eaten for over a year. How not to impress potential voters in the run up to an election.
Delete"Yoon Brit Nats tearing each other apart".
DeleteYes, perhaps. But against this backdrop you still don't have independence. The SNP and wider Yes movement must be pretty rubbish if they can't beat an opposition at war with itself.
"naw a snowball's chance in hell of ever doing better"
Careful now! None of us knows the future. I certainly couldn't have predicted in 2006 we'd be in the situation we are in now. By 2026, we could again be somewhere totally different. The SNP could be fighting for its political existence against an insurgent Scottish Unionist and Labour Party that doesn't even exist yet.
Aldo
Ah! Yes. The Unionist promise . Jam tomorrow.
DeleteI'm not promising you anything - just pointing out that the future is uncertain. Electorates get itchy feet. Of the 50% currently voting SNP, you'd be daft to think that all of them are religiously devoted to independence. A good number are simply going along for the ride and will jump off when they get bored or annoyed about something - or someone else makes a bigger, bolder, better offer to them.
DeleteAldo
Don't feed the troll, folks.
DeleteSo a "troll" is now anyone who disagrees with the blog? I am respectful, unless someone fails to show manners.
DeleteDon't feed the trolls, folks.
DeleteExcellent explanation and impressive performance.
ReplyDeleteThank you.
Aldo is heading down the M74 come Independence.
ReplyDeleteWorth voting for then!
I may even go further afield. I fancy Australia to be honest. Then I can watch Scotland disintegrate while sipping cocktails on a beach and quietly smiling to myself.
DeleteIf you're lucky, I'll send you an aid parcel.
Aldo
Cheerio
DeleteAye,we're well aware of your opinion of the capabilities of the Scottish people.
DeleteDoes Aldo want help with packing?
DeleteYou will join him when the Nat sis fuck up the Joke economy. But you will say you voted Naw like the sponging hypocrite you are.
DeleteDon't feed the troll, folks.
DeleteGWC is right however than when the economy collapses and uber austerity is imposed, you wont be able to find a single Scot who had voted for secession. It'll be a similar situation to Germany, 1945. Nobody could be found who had voted for the recently deceased big cheese. They were all commies and liberals and social democrats....apparently...
DeleteAldo
Don't feed the trolls, folks.
DeleteExcellent video, James! You explained the history and intricacies of AMS well. Hopefully, the SNP will do as well as the polls are suggesting, and that you are correct about the gap between the SNP's constituency vote and the regional vote being caused by faulty questioning in the polls.
ReplyDeleteAlex B
Okay being serious for a second or trying to be. What kind of % should we expect for the Holyrood Election turn out. In 1999 we had a 59% turn out. In 2003 a miserly 49.3% turnout with the turn outs in 2007 and 2011 barely scraping 50.4% and 51.8% respectively.
ReplyDeleteNow if the electorate is as politically engaged as some have claimed then surely we can expect a turn out at a level that will smash through the high point of the first Holyrood Election.
The Brit Nat Press and Media has been doing its best to generate apathy and divide the Pro Indy vote. No surprise there though.
Now would you expect a high turn out as in 60 plus % of vote to change your analysis in any way James? I call it high on the basis of past turn outs at Holyrood Elections.
Oh and I had a sly bet two years ago at 100-1 that SNP would win 70 plus constituency seats. I will be gloating on political betting if that happens!
An excellent film. Very Informative.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally I was recently at a hustings for pro-Indy parties. They did go over the process of how the list vote works and it was very helpful. I
I also asked the chair (from Electoral Reform) a question about how the about how the German system was different. He declined to answer.
Unsurprising.
ReplyDeletehttp://archive.is/Y4g7D
Labour voters are more right wing than those who back the SNP, research finds
LABOUR’S standing as the party of the left has been called into question by academics who found that less than half of their voters back left-wing policies.
Strathclyde University researchers found the party’s voters are not as left-leaning as they claim to be and are considerably less left-wing than those who back the SNP.
I think Aldo would call them shy Tories!
DeleteSkier, I would agree that Labour has old right wing tendencies and this was proven during the Clause 28 farce however the SNP using Tory Policies adds up to Scotland being right wing. Aldo will be laughing. And although Blair is now a hate figure he certainly was not an old Labour backward who could not stomach the rights of Gays etc.
DeleteReasonable conclusion.
DeleteLabour voters are, without doubt, the most confused in politics.
Not really surprising, when their Party is, without doubt, the most confused in politics.
What a god-awful mess they have become.
There is a branch of the left that doesn't believe in prostrating yourself before the nuclear armed nutjobs of this world, that believes in a fair day's pay only in return for a fair day's work and which believes in patriotism. These people could never vote for SNP or the Greens. They'd vote tory first.
DeleteHow sad since socialists and liberals fought the class struggle during the industrial revolution and the likes of the Tartan Tories are reeping the benefits.
DeleteThe wurkin class are fickle. Not that many are left now since the great prosperity brought on by Labour and Blair!
Most people are terminally thick GWC. They are like dumb blondes in a slasher movie. That's why I oppose universal suffrage. You should need to be 21+ and have achieved a "license to vote". The requirement should be x time in paid work and passing a test of citizen knowledge. Believe me, if we had it, the SNP would be a minor, fringe problem like the BNP.
DeleteLove it.......to wee Yoonies greetin' into their gruel.
DeleteWonderful to see that the Scots are THE most informed and intelligent electorate in Britain - as demonstrated by keeping the Unionist Parties at different depths in the same deep bin.
Still.... when you listen to the mutterings and mumblings of the imbeciles who actually vote for that Unionist Dross, it is easily understood.
They have been relegated to the most minor of also-rans up here and are now reduced to squabbling over who has sunk furthest into the shit.
Lovely to watch - and the even better thing is, it ain't gonna change.
Happy Days.
Testify!
DeleteThe majority of the intelligent voted Naw you Nat si bhoys. So we will have a right wing Nat si gov in power with Tory policies this Friday coming and you diddies think that is intelligent!
DeleteDon't feed the troll, folks.
Deleteagree with all the posters who said it was an excellent, informative film that was very well presented indeed. Well done James
ReplyDeleteI see major polling organisations have issued polls recently. I see the TNS face to face poll yesterday has the SNP at 52/45, a 30% Constituency lead which is quite something in the last few days of the campaign. I received an invite by Yougov last night. First political poll for yonks. Made a change about supermarket brands. It was mostly an EU poll but with about 3 or 4 questions about Holyrood, so not an in-depth Holyrood poll.
ReplyDeleteIt's shaping into a very intriguing election Marcia.
DeleteThat's two of the latest polls putting the Tories ahead of Labour in the number of seats won.
If the Tories become the official opposition in Scotland and a few Labour MSP's lose the list seats that they were expecting to win, there will be an almighty stooshie in the Labour Party.
The 'comrades' will not be slow to show their true self serving colours.
Scots will be well advised to wear goggles, as eye protection may be required in case dummies are flung furiously from prams.
Kez has managed to paint Labour into a corner, with her mess over the constitutional question.
We now have the 40% of Labour voters who voted 'Yes' annoyed at her statements that even should Scots vote to have another Referendum she would try to block it, and the other Labour voters, a number of whom will be staunch Unionists are annoyed that she has said that it isn't inconceivable that she would vote for Independence should the UK vote Brexit.
No amount of backtracking by Kez has convinced the Unionists, but this same back-tracking is serving only to antagonise Labours Yes voters.
So Labours Yes leaning voters are shifting to the SNP, while their No leaning voters are shifting to the Tories!
Kez gave Ruthie an open goal, and Ruth hasn't wasted the opportunity.
What a mess Kez has created!
She's saying she will remain leader, even if Labour come third, but it's obvious they can't let the mess she has created continue, so we can expect another dirty hatchet job (ala Johann Lamont) once the election is over.
And what do Labour do if they are third and another referendum is called?
It's one thing to lead a campaign with the Tories if you are by far the biggest opposition to the SNP, but if the Labour Party are third, they can only join any 'Better Together' type campaign, as junior partners.
Or as they will be portrayed by every single Yes Campaigner, The Tories little helpers, or Tory Lap-Dogs.
If what is left of Labour joined the Tories as 'little helpers' it would spell their complete destruction.
They know this, so it as far as the next referendum goes, it looks like it will be another United Yes Campaign, against a fragmented No campaign, with the Tories and Labour doing their own thing, and Labour terrified of being seen as 'Lap-Dogs'
It's not looking good for the Unionists, that's for sure!
Interesting to see the Record turning its fire on Ruth Davidson ("arsing about on a boat" - lol). I don't recall them bothering with attacking the Tories much in the run-up to the 2011 GE, it was all the Nats. The nail-biting battle for the silver must be heating up!
ReplyDeleteExcellent explanation but here's the flaw in our system; if it takes 17 mins to educate people on how their parliamentary voting system operates, it's too complicated.
ReplyDeleteSo we need a method that is truly proportionally representative but one that is easy to learn.