Dazzling double-header of Holyrood polls suggests SNP support is soaring into the stratosphere

We knew that the monthly TNS poll of Holyrood voting intentions would turn up sooner or later, but today unexpectedly brings word of two polls, as the Record's regular pollster Survation starts up a torrid adulterous affair with the Mail.  So much for "Vows", eh?  (That's a joke, by the way, before I get an email from Survation reminding me that they haven't signed a contract of exclusivity with the Record!)

Let's start with the TNS poll, because the numbers are pretty extraordinary -

Constituency ballot :

SNP 60% (+3)
Labour 21% (n/c)
Conservatives 13% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 4% (+1)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 55% (+3)
Labour 21% (+2)
Conservatives 13% (-4)
Greens 6% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)

It's not unheard of for the SNP to break the 60% barrier in TNS polls, but the only previous times they've done it were in three consecutive polls during their post-election honeymoon last spring and summer.  After that, they slipped down to a consistent range of 56-58%, so today's finding is a bit unexpected.  It could be a freak result caused by a weird sample, but it has to be said that there have been several recent polls from a variety of firms showing at least a small increase in SNP support.  It could be real, therefore, but if so, it's quite hard to pinpoint where the extra support is coming from.  Superficially, this poll would leave you with the impression that it's coming direct from the Tories, but for obvious reasons that's highly unlikely.

It's certainly not clear that it's coming from Labour, because the other big story of the TNS poll is that last month's swing from Labour to Tory (which at the time seemed to corroborate evidence from other pollsters) now looks like a mirage.  Labour have been restored to a commanding 8% lead for second-place, both on the constituency ballot and the all-important list ballot.  Ipsos-Mori have shown a similar trend - a big Tory surge in one poll followed by slippage in the next, so it's not impossible there was a genuine (albeit transitory) spike in support for the Tories, but I can't think of any obvious reason for the timing of it.

I'm now back to my original view that the bookies' very generous odds on Labour finishing second are practically free money.  (The operative word being 'practically', and I'm far too risk-averse to go down that road myself!)

TNS are always the firm that causes the greatest excitement amongst the "tactical voting" brigade, because they consistently show much higher SNP figures than anyone else, leaving the impression that we're heading for a complete "yellow-wash" in the constituency seats..  They're a 'real world' pollster, of course (they conduct interviews face-to-face), so it's perfectly conceivable that they're getting it right and everyone else is getting it wrong.  But the most important reason for a degree of scepticism is that the other 'real world' firm (Ipsos-Mori) have slotted in at the other end of the spectrum, and have shown the SNP as 'low' as 50% - as have Panelbase and YouGov.  If the true figure slipped down to the high 40s, we'd be well into territory where the SNP might need list seats to retain their majority.  On the basis of 45% of the constituency vote last time, they won just 53 of the 73 constituency seats, meaning they required a minimum of 12 list seats for a majority (they got 16).

To return to the point that I raised a number of times in my debate with Tommy Sheridan, the evidence is pretty clear that a so-called "tactical vote" on the list for either RISE or Solidarity is highly likely to be wasted and might as well be thrown in the bin.  (The only possible exception is in the Glasgow electoral region, where it's conceivable that Solidarity has a small concentration of support that the polls are unable to pick up.)  On the headline figures, the TNS poll found just one respondent who is minded to vote Solidarity, and just one respondent who is minded to vote SSP.  That works out as 0.2% of the list vote for both parties.  UKIP, you'll be pleased to hear, find themselves in precisely the same predicament.

Let's turn now to the Survation poll -

Constituency ballot :

SNP 54% (+1)
Labour 21% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 43% (-2)
Labour 19% (+1)
Conservatives 14% (-1)
Greens 9% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
UKIP 6% (n/c)

The fly in the ointment here is that the SNP's list vote has once again slipped below the 44% achieved in the 2011 election.  That could be slightly ominous if it turns out that list seats are required for a majority, although in all probability Survation are overestimating how many SNP constituency voters are likely to switch to the Greens on the list.  John Curtice thinks that the question Survation ask is leading respondents to wrongly think that the list vote is some sort of second preference vote.  If you look at the exact wording used, it's a debatable point -

"Your second vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland by a form of proportional representation. If the election were tomorrow, which party would you be most likely to vote for with your second, regional list vote?"

Arguably the second use of the word "second" is a bit redundant.  Whatever the explanation, though, the empirical evidence is that Survation are showing a wildly implausible gap between the SNP's constituency and list share of the vote, which in turn makes it pretty likely that something is going wrong and that the Greens (and probably UKIP as well) are being significantly overestimated on the list.

This poll doesn't show quite as big a gap between Labour and Tory as TNS does, but nevertheless the Labour advantage has widened on the list vote, which adds to the weight of evidence that the Tories are highly unlikely to claim the runner-up spot (barring a total Labour meltdown beyond even anything we've seen thus far).

Minor party news : Survation don't ask about Solidarity or RISE, but the "another party" option claims just 1.1% of the list vote.

By far the most amusing and satisfying detail of this poll, which was commissioned by the Mail, is that it shows a plurality of support for the BBC replacing the network Six O'Clock News with a "Scottish Six" produced in Glasgow and tailored for a Scottish audience.  36% of respondents supported the idea, and only 33% were opposed.  The Mail, of course, have been wrongly telling us for days that the people of Scotland don't want the Scottish Six.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Constituency ballot :

SNP 53.4% (+0.8)
Labour 20.4% (-0.2)
Conservatives 16.4% (-0.8)
Liberal Democrats 5.4% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 47.4% (+0.2)
Labour 19.6% (+0.6)
Conservatives 15.8% (-1.0)
Greens 6.4% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 6.2% (-0.2)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have reported Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers over the previous three months, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are five - Panelbase, Survation, YouGov, TNS and Ipsos-Mori. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)