Three different people have given me a steer in this direction, so here goes. The quarterly Ipsos-Mori poll of Scottish voting intentions for STV appears to be on its way. The headline numbers haven't been released yet, but the results of a nuclear weapons question have been, and from the datasets it's possible to work out that the constituency voting intentions for Holyrood seem to be -
SNP 52%
Labour 22%
Conservatives 15%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Labour 22%
Conservatives 15%
Liberal Democrats 7%
I've already had to update this post, because it took a couple of minutes for the penny to drop that Ipsos-Mori had split their sample in two on the nuclear question, and therefore it was necessary to aggregate two slightly different sets of voting intention numbers. That means the above results cover the whole sample, and aren't filtered by certainty to vote. It's the filtered sample that Ipsos-Mori use for their headline numbers, so those will probably be a little different.
On the unfiltered numbers, the gap between Labour and Tory for second place seems to have grown significantly since November. That's an unexpected finding, given that other firms have shown recent movement in the opposite direction - and indeed YouGov suggested that the Tories had actually overtaken Labour on the constituency vote. Unless the filtered numbers show something radically different, that will be the big story of the poll, and the cause of some relief for Kezia Dugdale. (To the extent that any Scottish Labour leader can really be relieved when her party is languishing in the low 20s.)
UPDATE : The headline, turnout-filtered results have now been released. Full details can be found HERE.
Does 'certainty to vote' usually make it better or worse for SNP figures?
ReplyDeleteCertainty to vote figures tend to favour rich and old over poor and young, so I'd expect worse for SNP.
ReplyDeleteSome other quotes are 53% for constituency, 49% for list.
ReplyDeleteThat's because the turnout-filtered headline numbers have now been released.
DeleteIt seems to me the polls are all over the place at the moment.
ReplyDeleteI was looking back through some old election results for Holyrood and in the 1999 and 2003 polls the Labour percentage support was in the low thirties. So it would seem the recovery required from Labour isn't quite so steep as some might imagine - from low 20s to low 30s being travelable in the space of a few years. Although they would require a coalition partner or C&S - either with the tories or the libdems.
ReplyDeleteAldo
Labour has never had the exposure like the Independence Referendum before, or the failed Smith report, and the Vow.
DeleteAs a unionist, I find it quite encouraging that with the bucketloads of excrement poured over Labour in the last few years, they still hover at about 10 percentage points away from potentially forming a government.
DeleteAldo
Clearly Aldo lives in some kind of alternate parallel universe where Labour doesn't have a complete monopoly of the mainstream media spinning everything everything to achieve a total blackout of ANY criticism of her majesty's loyal opposition in the colonies. You are Kezia, Jim Murphy or Jackie Bird.
DeleteDespite the bucketloads of unquestioning pandering poured on Scottish Labour by the mainstream media it is encouraging to see that they are still bumping along around about the 20% mark, a very few percentage points removed from becoming only the 3rd largest party in Holyrood.
ReplyDeleteAldo is not in denial. He is just very selective about the reality he accepts.
Looking at the tables, I see they found 1 Rise voter and 2 Solidarity voters, along with 1 UKIP and 1 BNP voter.
ReplyDelete