From a partisan SNP point of view, one of my concerns about the Corbyn surge has been that it might lead to working-class voters in Scotland changing their negative perceptions of Labour, even if one of the "mainstream" candidates is ultimately elected leader. However, if the Scottish subsample of a YouGov poll conducted on Thursday and Friday is anything to go by, I needn't have worried.
Thinking about how the Labour party have performed since the election, has it made you think more positively about them, more negatively about them, or made no difference? (Respondents in Scotland only)
More positively : 1%
More negatively : 50%
No difference - I had a positive view of Labour and still do : 11%
No difference - I had a negative view of Labour and still do : 26%
TOTAL POSITIVE : 12%
TOTAL NEGATIVE : 76%
That looks to me like an electorate with Labour's abstention over welfare cuts at the forefront of its mind, rather than Corbyn's success. Having said that, there is some limited evidence from the poll that Labour might make progress in Scotland if Corbyn actually becomes leader - a combined total of 27% of the Scottish subsample say they would be more likely to support Labour if he wins, or that they would support Labour anyway. That's the highest figure by some distance of any of the four candidates, with the next best performer being Yvette Cooper on 18%. Unsurprisingly, Liz Kendall is bottom of the pile with just 14%.
Even at Britain-wide level, this poll again challenges the conventional wisdom that Corbyn is a guaranteed voter repellent - a combined total of 23% say they would be more likely to support Labour if he wins or that they would support Labour anyway. That's identical to Burnham's figure, and higher than the figures for Cooper and Kendall (with Kendall again at the bottom).
Very few respondents on either side of the border give Labour much of a chance of winning in 2020, but those in Scotland are even more sceptical - just 12% of people here think Labour are likely to win, compared to 19% across Britain.