The SNP have released a new poll they commissioned from Survation, which undermines Labour's pitch by suggesting that more people (37.4%) think that a vote for the SNP is best able to prevent a Tory government than think the same about a vote for Labour (35.2%). There are no voting intention figures published, but it's possible to get more than a rough idea from the raw numbers provided at the top of the datasets. This is how it seems to work out -
SNP 42.6%
Labour 25.1%
Conservatives 13.0%
Liberal Democrats 4.1%
If the voting intention figures ever see the light of day (and they may do, because the monthly Survation poll for the Record must be due soon, and the SNP's question may have been a bolt-on to that), they won't be exactly as above, because the turnout filter would be applied. But it certainly looks as if the SNP's lead hasn't slipped at all from the 17% reported last month, and may even have increased slightly.
This doesn't really take us forward all that much, though, because the poll's fieldwork is slightly out of date, and took place at the same time as the recent YouGov poll, which similarly showed a more or less static position. Perhaps more interesting is the Scottish subsample in this morning's GB-wide YouGov poll, which shows an entirely typical lead for the SNP of 44% to 26% - in spite of the fact that Labour's Britain-wide vote of 36% is the highest recorded so far this year. Wherever those extra votes for Miliband are coming from, they're not coming from Scotland.
On the SNP's own question, the most interesting detail is that 25.4% of people who voted Labour in 2010, and even 18.3% of the rump Labour vote from 2011, think that the SNP are best placed to get the Tories out. Those people alone would be sufficient for the SNP to make big inroads. Liberal Democrat voters from both 2010 and 2011 split in favour of the SNP being the best anti-Tory option, although in their case it may not be entirely clear whether they think that's a good thing or a bad thing.
I'm thinking plenty of people see a majority Labour or Tory government as two cheeks of the same arse. Scotland will be ignored without SNP influence.
ReplyDeleteAs someone who had been staunchly Labour pre2011 I'd certainly concur with you suggestion. Certainly fits the majority feeling in my social circles.
ReplyDeleteGood figures and yet more proof (as if it were needed) that little Ed and 'scottish' Labour's 'don't let the tories' in bullshit just isn't working.
ReplyDeleteFact is we're getting very close to the election now and there's only so much those figures can change because 'scottish' Labour are stuck with the unpopular Eggman Murphy and clearly have no rabbits to pull out of a hat other than whining about their inability to beat the tories elsewhere.
We've also just seen the budget come and go in an amusingly anticlimactic manner for all those tory twits who were hoping there would be some Osborne 'master strategy' to change things radically.
Time is fast running out with only the debates still to come to change minds and the ground campaigns to ensure GOTV. Given that the coward Cameron has caved in to appear in the first debate there's also going to be some very funny panicking in Labour and tory circles as they have to 'deploy' little Ed and the coward Cameron on the campaign trail.
We just have to keep working away on the campaign on the ground as we are seeing some real progress there with voter registration a priority right now and public awareness of politics still extremely high in scotland since the first indyref.
The more members we get and the more people who help out with the campaign the more certain it is that we will be able to hold the corrupt westminster establishment's feet to the fire come election day.
I find it difficult to see how SNP MPs would be more able than Labour MPs to prevent a Tory government. Just as able, yes; more likely to give us the kind of government the average SLAB voter would like to see, perhaps; but how would they be any more likely to prevent a Tory government than Labour MPs?
ReplyDeleteKeaton : There's a very simple answer to that - the SNP would be guaranteed to vote against a Tory Queen's Speech. The same can't be said of Labour - bear in mind the way that the likes of Tom Harris toured the TV studios in 2010, openly campaigning for the Tories to be allowed to take office.
DeleteKeaton - also think about the dynamics -- if labour are in a wafer thin majority situation or a minority government and the SNP aren't involved in a deal then every Scottish MP would have to toe the labour party whip slavishly and the southern red tory blairite agenda as even a few rebels would make things impossible for the government. If you replace the Scottish labour Mps with SNP MPs then the the SNP can extract concessions for Scotland or alter the austerity agenda in exchange for their support - in other words the voters in Scotland have far more influence by electing SNP members of parliament.
DeleteSurely turn out filter and excluding Don't Knows on that set of base numbers has to hint at SNP pushing 50%? SNP are always higher Certainty to vote and I get those four adding up to 84.8% so that's at least SNP 46% before filter.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something here?
I excluded Don't Knows from the figures. But the SNP vote will probably be higher after the turnout filter is applied.
DeleteMy thinking is similar to Mick Pork. Labour is running out of time, and no matter how hard their media friends try, the Scottish people are simply not listening any more.
ReplyDeleteThe main plank of Labours campaign in Scotland, seems to be, 'vote SNP and it will let the Tory Party in because 'everyone knows' the biggest party gets to form the government'
Well their whole campaign was rag dolled yesterday, so it will be interesting to see if Jim Murphy & Co, really are daft enough to continue peddling this lie.
If they do, it will prove that without a doubt, Jim really is 'Dim Jim' as quite a few people contend.
Whatever he decides, we know Jim wont want to risk an adverse public reaction, so he will want someone else to test the waters before he jumps in.
Will be the ever more hapless Kezia, who is sent forth, to spout the lie?
It certainly fits the Murphy/ McTernan/ McDougal political approach, so the next few days will show who they consider to be politically expendable.
Election guess for me . SNP 38,Labour 17, Tories 1 and libs 2.
ReplyDeleteIs it educated though, or just a gut feeling?
ReplyDeleteI worry about overturning seats like Coatbridge and Springburn. The older people aye turn out for Labour so it could be enough. The SNP getting 38 is dream territory. Anything over that is just amazing.
ReplyDeleteI secretly hope for a Labour wipe out. That would be less than 10 MPs!
I'm still very cautious about the polls. Again, more fantastic figures (if right) for the SNP, but like November said I'm worried about the auld folk turning oot and many Yes/new SNP voters not voting.
ReplyDeleteIt's very difficult not too get excited though. These polls and sub-samples are all absolutely fantastic. I'm not 100% sure, but I think I can recall only one sub-sample has had a Labour lead and that was pre-Christmas (a Populus one of 44 Scots voters).
What is everyone's prediction? I'm worried about a last minute surge to Labour especially with the hardcore 'Ah've always voted Labour' Yes voters, plus the large majorities.
Yet whenever doubt comes in to my mind, hope arrives soon later. A No voter (well, he techinally didn't vote as he was on holiday - but let's say a soft No) has told me this week he's fed up of the anti-Scottish 'shite' and although still unsure about Indy (I tried, I really tried!) he'll be voting SNP in 2015. He voted Labour right up to last year's council elections!
Labour usually do worse than polls predict. The Labour vote is unlikely to have a better turn out than the SNP vote. The older demographic of Labour should be balanced by the more affluent demographic of the SNP.
DeleteLabour are in a weird panic meltdown at the moment and if they don't pull themselves together soon my prediction is:
Labour 26%
SNP 45%
Cons 18%
Lib Dems 4%
UKIP 3%
Greens 3%
I'll certainly take that, Denise. ;)
DeleteI'll go with (when it's all done and dusted).
Labour 31%
SNP 40%
Cons 17%
Libs 6%
Greens 3%
UKIP 2%
I made my own wee predictor and I currently get the following seat numbers:-
DeleteSNP 54
LAB 2
CON 2 (or 1)
L/D 1 (or 2)
Labour usually do worse than polls predict.
DeleteHmm, do they in Scotland? My impression was that, with the exception of 2011, this is more true of the SNP. Certainly it was the case at the Euros.
The "shyness" factor usually benefits an unpopular incumbent, rather than any particular ideology, because it has become "unfashionable" to support that view. I suppose you could argue this would benefit Labour as they are defending most of the seats, but I would have thought it would benefit the Lib Dems more as they have dropped more in the polls (as a proportion of their previous support) and they are in government. That said the movements are so great that the benefit of any "shyness" effect compared to the polls is likely to be limited.
DeleteMSM seem to be playing get JIM in,watched the glasgow leaders debate,he was roasted when he said labour were offering more powers than smith commission
ReplyDeleteHave you seen this http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html. Is this based on the survation poll? Liz
ReplyDeleteNo, it's an average of three Scottish national polls in February.
Delete"Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Feb 2015 to 25 Feb 2015, sampling 3,597 people."
Sorry that link is not working. It was the Scottish results that I was interested in. Liz
ReplyDeleteSorry that link is not working. It was the Scottish results that I was interested in. Lizhttp://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
ReplyDeleteYouGov sub-sample: SNP 40, Lab 26, Con 19, Others <5.
ReplyDeleteSome lower SNP scores this week, after the higher scores last week. All variations around the long-term mean. Ho-hum.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ocv8hgnv8n/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180315.pdf
That Electoral Calculus stuff is kinda weird. They have Gordon Brown's constituency down as pretty safe for Labour (despite the Ashcroft polls) but have the SNP down as strong favourites for Orkney & Shetland which everything I've read seems to assume Carmichael has locked down. Am I looking at English pollsters who just don't get it or is there information I've not seen that's skewing some of these predictions away from what I might have expected?
ReplyDeleteElectoral Calculus depends on uniform swing, so they don't account for any local factors at all. In those two cases there are pretty big factors: Gordon Brown was the incumbent MP last time in Kirkcaldy, and the Liberals / LibDems are historically very strong in Orkney & Shetland, even when they are toiling nationally.
DeleteICM have finally published the tables from their GB poll a few days ago.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_march15.pdf
The Scottish sub-sample scores were SNP 56 (as reported in the Guardian), Lab 18, Con 14, Others <5.