Today's update of the Poll of Polls is based on ten Scottish subsamples from Britain-wide polls - four from YouGov, two from Populus, one from ICM, one from TNS-BMRB, one from Ashcroft and one from ComRes. It has to be said that some of the last week's subsamples are as mad as a bucket of frogs, ranging between these two extremes...
ComRes : SNP 59%, Labour 13%, Conservatives 11%, Greens 6%, UKIP 5%, Liberal Democrats 5%
TNS-BMRB : Conservatives 34%, SNP 24%, Labour 23%, Greens 6%, UKIP 5%, Liberal Democrats 5%
OK, freakish results can happen in small subsamples, but this is in fact the second time since the referendum that TNS have had the Tories ahead of the SNP. When taken together with the fact that the full-scale Scottish poll from TNS also produced a result well out-of-step with other firms, you do start to wonder if there's an issue with their methodology.
However, put all the discordant results from the various firms together, and this is what you're left with...
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :
SNP 43.8% (-0.8)
Labour 23.0% (-4.0)
Conservatives 17.8% (+0.1)
Liberal Democrats 7.0% (+3.6)
UKIP 4.5% (+1.5)
Greens 2.9% (-0.5)
(The Poll of Polls uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)
We will have a full Survation poll tonight at 10pm.
ReplyDeleteAh. I can never quite seem to get the timing right!
DeleteHave you kept a chart of your Poll of Polls, James? So as to see the pattern you've had.
ReplyDeleteSweepie for tonight's poll?
I'll go...
SNP 43
LAB 27
CON 16
LIB 5
UKP 3
GRN 3
Judging by Kevin Pringle's Twitter feed, this poll will probably be another good one for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteAm I right in saying that TNS's GB-wide polls are done via telelphone and that it's only their Scotland fullscale polls that use F2F?
ReplyDeleteThe GB polls are "online self-completion".
DeleteI can exclusively reveal the SNP are ahead of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
ReplyDeleteWho isn't.
DeleteUKIP (sometimes)
DeleteSurvation: SNP 45% (-1); LAB 28% (+2); CON 15% (+1); LD 5% (-2); OTHER 7% (0)
ReplyDeleteAll inside the margin of error - so no statistical change.
Here is the page about it. SNP quite solid, is the vote set fair?. At this time in 2011 the SNP overtook Labour. So despite the BBC and other media spinning for Murphy not much change within margin of error.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-daily-record-poll-shows-5187551
But polling guru Professor John Curtice said there was “some sign of progress for Labour over the long-term”.
DeleteHe pointed out the party were at 24 per cent in November and December, 26 per cent last month and 28 per cent now. However, the Strathclyde University academic added: “Progress is not being made by Labour at anything like the speed necessary to avoid serious losses.
“Given the state of the GB polls, those losses could make the difference between Ed Miliband being in sight of a workable majority and being quite a way off.”
Note how Curtice always comments from a pro-Labour standpoint. He seems naturally to fall into the mindset of thinking how any poll impacts on Labour, from the mindset of someone sympathetic to Labour. I don't think I've ever noticed him doing the same thing from a pro-SNP standpoint.
In fairness, Curtice mainly comments from the "will this get me in the papers" standpoint. Saying "there's no statistical change here, as with all other polls since November, comparing the same company shows no change to outcome" doesn't sell papers..
DeleteYeah, even though Curtice may well be pro-Labour, he will be answered what he is asked about, i.e. the fevered Daily Record Pressman will be asking of him, 'but it's good news for Labour, isn't it, John?' every time and he will have to respond to that.
Delete