Today's second GB-wide YouGov poll of the year shows the Tories drawing level once again, while UKIP slip back still further...
Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 5th-6th January) :
Conservatives 33% (+2)
Labour 33% (-1)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Greens 8% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 4% (n/c)
I think James may have been onto something in the previous thread with his theory about how the sudden slippage in the UKIP vote may be an illusion. Many YouGov respondents have completed countless voting intention surveys from the firm in the past, and it could be that UKIP supporters have become used to selecting the "some other party" option, and have simply carried on doing that without noticing that UKIP have now been moved on to the main menu. This theory is consistent with the unusually high support in yesterday's poll for "others" - a grouping which excludes even Respect and the BNP.
Today's Scottish subsample figures are : SNP 38%, Labour 23%, Conservatives 19%, Greens 9%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 3%. If we were meant to discern a new pattern in the Scottish subsamples as a result of YouGov's methodological change, it certainly hasn't become apparent so far - the SNP are retaining an entirely familiar lead, but the Tories and Lib Dems have both bounced back from yesterday's abysmal lows.
Having read Anthony Wells' more detailed explanation of YouGov's tweak, I suspect all that's happened is that they've started to send out fewer invitations to respondents in Scotland, to prevent them having to continually downweight the Scottish sample as a matter of routine. Ironically, that will simply make the Scottish subsample figures somewhat less reliable than before.
Even though the Scottish sample as a whole hasn't had to be downweighted at all in today's poll, respondents who identify with the SNP have, as per usual, been downweighted sharply (from 55 to 34) to bring them into line with Westminster-centric target figures.