A million, billion, zillion thanks to the 171 people who have donated so far to the second Scot Goes Pop fundraiser, which today passed its target figure of £5000. That means Indiegogo will deduct a much smaller administration fee (I believe it will now be 4% of the total rather than 9%). I never know what to say at moments like this, other than that I'm completely overwhelmed, and that I'll do my very best not to let you down. Barring unexpected calamities, I'll stick to the plan of keeping the blog going until the UK general election next spring. I'll probably continue to focus mostly on opinion polls, because I suspect Scottish voting intentions for the general election will be a neglected subject elsewhere.
The fundraiser will continue as planned until November the 18th - in any case the closing date is decided in advance and can't be changed. I'll make sure any further money raised is put to good use. There are three basic options...
1) I could use the extra money to keep the blog going beyond the general election (ie. without having to attempt a third fundraiser at that point, which I suspect would be much less likely to succeed),
2) I could do what I did the last time and set aside some of the funds for online advertising. That would have two aims - a) to draw new readers to the blog, and b) to generally spread a pro-independence/pro-Devo Max/pro-SNP message.
3) I could commission an exclusive opinion poll. I think it's pretty unlikely that we'll get to the point where that would be feasible, though, and even if we do, I'm not sure it would be the wisest use of the funds - it might make a big splash if we play our cards right, but it would be very much a one-off event that would be over very quickly.
I'll keep an open mind, but I have a feeling option 2 will probably be the best one.
Lastly, commiserations to our friendly neighbourhood trolls who tried and failed to sabotage the fundraiser from the outset by posing unconvincingly as 'concerned Yes supporters'. Please don't take this outcome as being any kind of reflection on your characteristically stirring efforts!
Congratulations James.
ReplyDeleteQuite simply, you deserve it.
The blog is brilliant. You do what most others can't. You must spend a huge amount of time researching.
I tip my hat to your work.
Well done. You should consider a crowdfund for your own commissioned opinion poll. You could have the questions that you think relevant to scratch below the surface.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Tris - you've always been amazingly supportive, even back in the very early days when this blog was read by about seven people!
ReplyDeleteMarcia : I know this sounds frivolous in the extreme, but before the referendum it kept occurring to me that one opinion poll question I'd like to see done is one that simply asked people in the rest of the UK : "Have you ever visited Scotland?" I suspect the number would be quite low - lower than the percentage of Canadians who have ever visited Quebec, and much lower than the percentage of Spaniards who have ever visited Catalonia. That would probably tell us quite a bit about the general levels of ignorance concerning the independence movement. If it wasn't for the Edinburgh Festival (which is a bubble anyway) most London media folk would certainly never set foot here.
Good to see you break the target James. With regards a unique poll, would it be an idea to approach the wider yes/post yes community to collaborate on this. i.e. get a group with more money (Wings?) or even the SNP to fund or mostly fund a poll but giving you input to the questioning and full access to the results.
ReplyDeleteOr even just try and use their clout to promote a crowd fund for it. (what we talking? a few k?)
In any case I'd guess you'd probably want to do this nearer to election time so plenty time to think it through...
Congrats James,
ReplyDeleteGreat to know that we will have your input over the coming months. I think many of us depend upon it for an honest analysis. So thank you!
I second Callum's suggestion. Persuade wings to do the poll but you approve the questions, order and format along with the readers of this blog (there's quite an overlap).
ReplyDeleteWings did pay for polls before bit they screwed up a tiny bit, so you'd ensure that the money wasn't wasted.
Comment and analysis will still be needed in the 2016 GE!
ReplyDeleteThe comments section is a great addition to the main blog.
I would never have understood polls are not simple numbers and the Kellner effect without this site.
Always willing to support as with Wings and Newsnet.
Essential alternatives.
Congratulations James, very happy that you will be continuing this highly informative blog.
ReplyDeleteAlways knew you'd have no probs hitting the target. Good stuff James.
ReplyDeletePopulus is interesting.
43% SNP
24% Lab
14% Con
6% Lib
That's the highest SNP I've recorded since July 13 when I started logging.
Overall, at first glance, it doesn't look like much of a surge here as per yougov. However, look closely and SNP minima have been climbing since mid july past while Lab have been falling steadily since 2013. Today's numbers may be a precusor to a more clear SNP lead build.
Incidentally, while we still have a tiny UKIP share in Scotland compared to the UK (around 4% or 1/3 of UK wide at most), nice to see this eating into both Con and Lab. I do hope these people are loyal and vote UKIP in May ;-)
Good stuff.
ReplyDeleteDon't often comment but this is my 'go to' site when I want to know what's really going on with polls.
I haven't contributed as yet but would be happy to do so after May as there will still be a need for genuine independent non Poultice analysis
Well done on reaching your target so quickly. THis shows that there is a huge unsated demand for information not being edited and manipulated through the Britsih state BBC/MSM official 'point of view' aka 'state propaganda'. My 80 year old Mum has been terribly depressed since the Referendum and the information she gleams from sites such as yours gives 'hope' and a comfort you probably will never realise just how vital & important a role you play in many, many lives. BTW an older friend of my Mum's joined the SNP this week, aged 96 year old. I find that inspiring. As someone once said, 'We have not yet begun to fight'.
ReplyDelete@Marcia
ReplyDeleteThat looks interesting. It looks like it might be more balanced than Newsnet, since it has at least one anti-independence contributor in Jane Carnall.
Well done james, you deserver it. As to how many English have ever visited Scotland...I live and work in England now, and I am ASTONISHED at how many people say they have never been over the border. Really, really surprising. And yes, the level of innocent ignorance is extraordinary, and will surely have an effect on Meejer coverage. (As it happens, I work in the MSM, and even my more intelligent colleagues are often woefully vague about Scotland).
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI dunno if spending money on a poll would be worthwhile, given the now almost universal acceptance that Labour in Scotland are on the slide, we may well see more and more poll's on Scottish voting habits, if the polls in England do not move into the Tories favour (even more)
As obviously the importance of Scotland's MP's would be greater than if the Tories were on course for a landslide....
A poll of Danny Alexander's constituency which is a 4 way marginal might be very effective at the right time. Labour will obviously be saying 'vote Labour to get the LDs out' but a poll showing SNP in the lead might coalese the anti-Coalition vote behind SNP. There might be other similar marginals.
ReplyDeleteYou do sterling work James - I gave a small donation (have to cut back nowadays) and I gave it because you provide a service that is nonexistent elsewhere. An honest perspective of the polls.
ReplyDeletePerhaps you should do a secong fundraiser to commission a poll - I suspect people would be willing.
New Ashcroft Scottish subsample:
ReplyDelete44% SNP
30% Lab
13% Con
5% Green
4% Lib
2% UKIP
Tories ahead UK-wide as per latest Yougovs:
Con 32%
Lab 30%
Lib Dem 7%
UKIP 17%
Green 7%
@Scottish_Skier
ReplyDeleteAccording to Electoral Calculus, that still puts Labour 18 seats ahead of the Tories (though 16 short of a majority).
The Tories need to be ahead of Labour by 3 points to get a lead of a single seat.
Mind you, it's difficult to see those 17% really all staying with UKIP when it comes to the crunch...
ReplyDeleteHi James
ReplyDeleteNever posted on here before, but have frequently read your articles and contributed my own mite to your crowdfunding. You have kept our spirits up on many an occasion and have managed to stay sane despite the trolls! Keep up the good work.
Further to James's comment earlier on about how many from England have ever visited Scotland I heard once that a survey had revealed more people in England have been to Spain than have been to Scotland!
ReplyDeleteThis is excellent news! I'm a tad strapped for cash right now but I will contribute as and when money becomes available.
ReplyDeleteOn a sociological bent, is it not odd that I have you on speed dial as it were and the Scotsman not?
We live in interesting times.
What's the calculus saying for UKIP seats?
ReplyDelete@chalks
ReplyDeleteNo seats for UKIP with 17% of the vote! No wonder they supported AV.
Interesting take on things:
ReplyDeleteReferendum fall-out: No vote is bad news for Labour
A politics expert has predicted that the SNP’s new-found popularity could lead to it holding the balance of power in a hung Westminster parliament next year.
Dr Thomas Lundberg, of Glasgow University. said growing support for the party – its membership has soared by 52,000 to 77,000 in the last two weeks – meant it might win seats currently held by Labour, a feat it achieved in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election.
He said many of the SNP’s new followers would be disillusioned Labour supporters who were particularly unhappy with the party’s allegiance with the Conservatives during the independence referendum campaign.
Dr Lundberg said: “Many of those people (new members) will be disillusioned with Labour and we have seen evidence of people online burning their Labour membership cards...
Scottish Skier; Thats an interesting analysis if the SNP could hold the key to a hung parliament.
ReplyDeleteFor talking lets assume that UKIP have a few seats as well and UKIP plus SNP plus Torry is a majority.
That three way alliance could make an interesting alliance bringing forward a second referendum.
An EU Referendum throughout the UK could be paired with a sperate referendum in Scotland.
Ballots in Scotland would have a SECOND question in addition to the first question;
1.) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU?
2.) If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, should Scotland remain a member of the EU as an independent nation?
Now just think of the juicy voting combinations....
I would vote NO/YES to the above as a a tactical measure.
I regret that £5,000 will not be sufficient to recoup your ruined reputation.
ReplyDeleteGood evening, Mr Troll. I'm surprised it took you so long.
ReplyDeleteWhich one are you? "Feline"? Or "Hugh", perhaps?
Sexism. Another defect to add to your growing list of failings. Here's a Pound.
ReplyDelete"Here's a Pound."
ReplyDeleteHmmm. That pledge had as much meaning as "The Vow", I see. Still, with that comment you've helped me match you up to the relevant Twitter troll, so we're making progress.