A new ComRes regional poll of one the most No-friendly parts of the country, the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway, has just been released -
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 33% (+3)
No 67% (-3)
Percentage changes in brackets are since the last comparable poll in June.
What I always find interesting about these polls, commissioned by ITV Border, is that they are (very expensively) conducted by telephone, which is incredibly rare in this campaign. Until now, Ipsos-Mori have been the only pollster that has conducted nationwide telephone polls, although ICM are belatedly about to join the fray. It's incredibly frustrating, because ITV Border could have commissioned a nationwide telephone poll for exactly the same price, and actually told us something useful. Instead, we're left scratching our heads, and trying to work out if there's some way of extrapolating from these numbers to get a very rough sense of what they might imply for the national picture.
The only approach I can think of is to look at the 1997 devolution referendum results, in which the Yes vote on the first question was 12.7% lower in the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway than it was across the country, and the Yes vote on the second (tax) question was 14% lower than the national figure. There's obviously no way of knowing if the same differential is holding true in this contest, but if by any chance it is, tonight's poll would imply a national Yes vote of about 46% or 47%, which is a significantly higher figure than recorded in any nationwide telephone poll (all from Ipsos-Mori) to date.
But as Dan Snow's dad used to say, this is "just a bit of fun".
Is there any other country in the world, where a section of the population receives their national news from another country?
ReplyDeleteAm I right in saying an unspecified number of respondents to this poll live outside Scotland?
ReplyDeleteIf so, although the swing is heartening, is it worth the paper it's written on?
Indeed Juteman.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing. I know the concept of "nation" is in some ways nebulous and all that, but is there another territory anywhere in the world that is, like Scotland, regarded as a nation **not only by people living there but also by everyone else with a functioning brain, even opponents of its independence**?
I can't think of anywhere offhand.
Tibet, Quebec and Catalonia all fail the test, however unfairly.
"Am I right in saying an unspecified number of respondents to this poll live outside Scotland?"
ReplyDeleteNo. As stated, it's a poll of the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway.
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ReplyDeleteJuteman - Most of the Warsaw Pact countries' news was approved by Moscow and delivered by local faces: kind of like BBC Scotland. Since that came to an end about 25 years ago, I suppose we'd have to look at places like... em... eh... Wales?
ReplyDeleteThx for the clarification James.
ReplyDeleteSignificant swing, isn't it margin of error?
ReplyDeleteThe entire English establishment and those quisling Scots who do their bidding do not view Scotland as a nation.
ReplyDeleteWe have 1,000 years of history showing us that the English never viewed Scotland as anything other than part of England that broke free and had ideas above our station.
Proven by the deliberate destruction of Scottish history and identity. Loss of national records, extermination of languages, theft of the Stone of Destiny, QEII etc.
Also the infamous Westminster document stating that Scotland ceased to exist and became part of England.
Just to be clear, I was talking about the Borders as a region of Scotland.
ReplyDeleteI believe they get their TV news from England?
Juteman: We get our ITV news from England. This is, incidentally, preferable to our BBC news which is Reporting Scotland with Jackie Burd.
ReplyDeleteRoughly, I would have wanted us to be at 38% minimum in this poll. But i estimate differential between 33% and 38% is 20,000 votes on 85% turnout. We can make that up in pro Yes areas and with other factors at play. Could be bettet tho. (If its accurate)
ReplyDelete'Frying pan and Fire' Betty. Not much difference.
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ReplyDeleteAccording to the Guardian on Twitter the ICM sample will be a mix of telephone and mobile.
ReplyDeletewell done my border people. Those that know the border is where the power of kings cancelled each other out, rather than being a choice the people made. We have more in common with Carlisle and Berwick than with a lot of scotland.
ReplyDeleteAnother consideration:
ReplyDeleteDumfries and Galloway has a very high elderly population, one of the highest (if not the highest) in Scotland.
This isn't due to longevity but because our young people move away and retired people move in to take advantage of the cheaper property prices and rural way of life.
I can also confirm that there is still a lot of ignorance around here. School kids still think they will have to use a passport to go to Carlisle to the shops. This is partly due to folk like the proven liar David Mundell MP going round the schools telling them that this so.
There are also a lot of Tories, (as you will all probably know). Many are of the elite group of landowners who only mix with themselves but there are also the old fashioned Galloway folks who still think you doff your cap to the upper class.
Add to that a large number of retirees from England and you can see why it's unlikely that we'll make it over the 50% mark.
Which isn't too worrying, borders & D&G both voted only 40% in 1979 when Scotland as a whole was on nearly 52%.
Remember the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway make up only 5% of the Scottish population, so none of this is hugely relevant anyway.
I don't think any polling company have used mobile phones. Wonder how the they obtained phone numbers? Interesting if true.
ReplyDelete@saynotoyesmen you know what to do when we vote 'Yes' then. Good luck with that.
Now we know the total number of registrations is higher than ever and the turnout is likely to be higher than ever isn't it fair to say that none of the polling companies have any method that will predict the outcome?
ReplyDeleteThey're playing Longitude without the accurate clocks.
ReplyDeleteI would say that was true Laukat. Whichever way it goes someone is going to have egg spattered over their face. Curtice hopefully.
ReplyDeleteThe Big Debate for 8,000 first time voters tonight were unable to get enough No voters for balance so some Yessers were ask to say that they were Nos by the host. I don't agree with that approach at all as it reflects badly on society and teaches wrong doing as being ok.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/hashtag/bigbigdebate?src=hash
We are getting much better results for Yes than this on the ground - particularly in the housing estates across D&G where landline polling is likely particularly ineffective since an awful lot of residents don't have landlines.
ReplyDeleteI was told this evening that people in Tweedsmuir were coming out of their houses for the Wee Blue Book. The most surprising people were declaring for Yes.
ReplyDeleteThats goid to hear anon re canvassing on the ground. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI Live in D & G. Before we gave up on television and binned ours, it annoyed the hell out of me that we got Border TV. They used to say "Here is the news from across our region", and start wittering on about Whitehaven. Whitehaven isn't even in my country, never mind my region!
ReplyDeleteAnalyze that!
ReplyDeletebreaking, yougov has no back in the lead, yes 48 -3% yes 52 +3%
ReplyDeletehmmm.
Fergus, whitehaven is just across the solway, it's a bit like saying somewhere on the other side of the firth of forth is too far removed from edinburgh. Why, back in days of yore of vikings and then reivers, the seas were the roads with the land too dangerous to travel along - someone in kirkcudbright would have travelled more quickly to whitehaven and douglas than they'd ever get to eyemouth or edinburgh. But thanks to the advent of the united kingdom now borderers on both sides can travel the land in safety :-)
ReplyDeleteHi Betty (@8:27pm)...
ReplyDelete"Remember the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway make up only 5% of the Scottish population, so none of this is hugely relevant anyway."
A) Every vote is important.
B) When polls are predicting only 48/52% splits, 5% is very relevant!
John O'Groats, yes of course every vote counts, that's why we're out campaigning every day. The point I was trying to make was that people shouldn't feel too dismayed when they see this poll with yes on 33%.
ReplyDeleteps. is the continuing obsession with the english and tories all being no voters part of the nasty xenophobic " true scots" mantra the nationalists encourage?
ReplyDelete