Sunday, August 17, 2014

"Best YouGov poll for Yes" about to be published

Thanks to Denise for pointing me in the direction of Kevin Pringle's tweet, revealing that YouGov - the most No-friendly pollster of the lot - is about to publish their best poll for Yes of the campaign so far.  There are two ways of interpreting that - it could mean the best poll with Don't Knows included (which would imply a Yes vote of 38% or above, and a No vote of anything), or it could mean the best with Don't Knows excluded (which would imply a Yes vote of at least 43%, and a gap of no worse than 43/57).  Obviously the latter would be better, but either way it's going to transform our perception of the polling landscape after three successive underwhelming YouGov polls.  Taken in conjunction with the pro-Yes swings in the ICM and Panelbase polls, it will bolster the perception that there is now real momentum behind Yes.

I'm travelling on the continent at the moment, but I'll update with the figures when I get a chance.


  1. from WoS comment thread;

    Yes 35 % (+3) No 51% (-4) DK 11% (+1)
    Exc DK’s Yes 43% (+3) No 57% (-3)

  2. It's Yes: 38% (+3) No: 51% (-4) DK: 11% (+1)

  3. Excellent news, the gap has closed by 6%, something big is happening out there. It is almost certain that there has been a genuine and significant shift in opinion over the last two weeks. Everyone is talking about the indyref. I'm looking forward to seeing the poll of polls.

    We're on our way, folks.

  4. :) :)

    Get oot there and speak tae folk, folks!

    We're WINNING THIS!!

    55% PLUS FOR YES..

  5. From twitter:

    Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, said: “There does seem to have been a real shift in opinion, especially among Scots under 40.”

  6. Oh fickle lot of fools! One minute castigating the polls and then praising them because they suit you. Please James can we have a dissection of the methodologies now. You're still a long way behind, make the most of it.

  7. So the Darling demolition that the media claimed had won it for no turns out to have been a total lie.

    Maybe all those people that saw a mad english but pretending to be Scottish MP (their rules, if Blair is Scottish then Darling is English) insist that Scotland could never ever ever be a real country are now motivated enough to admit to voting Yes?

  8. Moira, we're only a long way behind with YouGov with its Krazy Correction, only two or three percent behind with some of the others. What is significant is the swings that we are seeing over the weekend, the movement from no to yes, this is the 3rd poll in two days to show it.

    Squeaky Bum time, as they say.

  9. The comedy no trolls are quiet tonight.

  10. I'll presume this YouGov is still using the absurd "Kellner Correction" which artificially boosts the No vote.

    I'll also wait to see if any other methodological changes have been implemented and how the last ones are affecting it.

    Nonetheless, even the limited value of the polling in 2011 simply could not disguise when the polls began to finally catch up to actual the reality on the ground. However little and however late.

    Make no mistake, the final few weeks of the campaign on the ground are unquestionably where the No campaign will be at it's most massive disadvantage and will have it all to do.

    No supporters will be hard pushed to convince anyone that they have the necessary number of grass roots activists and the commitment that Yes clearly has. GOTV and the ground campaign will be absolutely vital and always would be.

    So after all the No campaign's pointless shrieking about currency, after all their inept scaremongering and negativity, after all the same kind of mistakes SLAB made in 2007 and 2011, they are again facing a campaign with the momentum and the determination to put everything into these final weeks.

    The No campaign are also facing a scottish public that views westminster politicians and the unionist dominated media with contempt and mistrust.

    How No can possibly expect to reverse that complete lack of trust in a matter of mere weeks will be amusing to behold. Particularly as the panic truly starts to set in to the upper echelons of the tory labour and lib dem parties.

  11. The spiffing old home flipping Lorretorian, cavear consumer and croquet champ will be quaking in his taxpayer funded mansion. Morris dancing to oblivion.