From the sheer number of people that have reported being interviewed over the last few days, it's obvious that Ipsos-Mori are conducting a referendum poll on an absolutely mind-boggling scale - it must be a sample size of at least 10,000, which will be costing the client an absolute fortune. We know that client is on the No side, because the questions are skewed in that way. It could be the official No campaign, but on past form it's much more likely to be the UK government paying for a poll with taxpayers' money - and then sharing it with the No campaign for free. In other words, we are all subsidising the No campaign's private polling, and we won't even see the results unless they happen to be particularly favourable for No.
Let's make sure we don't stay quiet about this bloody outrage, shall we?
What do you think the purpose of this polling is?
ReplyDeleteThe supplementary questions will be to see which attack lines work best. Why it has to be on such a huge scale is beyond me - it doesn't reduce the margin of error by very much.
ReplyDeleteYou can get a refund for this polling as soon as I and the other No voters get a refund for paying for the collation, printing, distribution and pulping of the SNP's white paper
ReplyDeleteer, it was the first print run of the UK Government's pro-dependence document that had to be pulped.
DeleteSayNoToYesMen : That would have been a great line, if only we hadn't all paid for the UK government's glossy "referendum information" booklet, sent out to every household in Scotland (which the White Paper wasn't, of course).
ReplyDeleteSayNoToYesMen- at least the White Paper is available to all who want it- unlike these poll results!
ReplyDeleteOn a side note I'm intrigued as to why the UK Gov are interested in paying a lot of money but then deliberately skewing the result by using leading questions (lying to themselves basically)- I really don't think they'll succeed in demoralising anyone with their "No leads by x%!" nonsense- maybe they'll foster complacency in their core support which would seem counterintuitive.
May be the poll for STV on Tues
ReplyDeleteScott : Well, I suppose there's a chance the client will turn out to be someone other than the UK government. I doubt if it's STV or a newspaper, though, because they wouldn't bother paying for anything more than a normal sample size.
ReplyDeleteAlex : Have STV mentioned that a poll is coming on Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteAren't they doing a poll before the debate? Must be that one?
ReplyDeleteI really don't know why they don't just ask the question in a straight manner, the results are meaningless otherwise and akin to putting their fingers in their ears and loudly shouting "La la la".
Most of the academic literature I've been able to find says polls struggle with referendums, I reckon we're even further into unchartered territory on this occasion - no other referendum has been conducted in the context of internet social media, such blatant vested interest and such a long running debate. In Ireland in 2001 the Euro poll 5 days before the vote got the result entirely the wrong way round, in a campaign with parallels to this one.
Aren't they doing a poll before the debate? Must be that one?
ReplyDeleteI really don't know why they don't just ask the question in a straight manner, the results are meaningless otherwise and akin to putting their fingers in their ears and loudly shouting "La la la".
Most of the academic literature I've been able to find says polls struggle with referendums, I reckon we're even further into unchartered territory on this occasion - no other referendum has been conducted in the context of internet social media, such blatant vested interest and such a long running debate. In Ireland in 2001 the Euro poll 5 days before the vote got the result entirely the wrong way round, in a campaign with parallels to this one.
Aren't they doing a poll before the debate? Must be that one?
ReplyDeleteI really don't know why they don't just ask the question in a straight manner, the results are meaningless otherwise and akin to putting their fingers in their ears and loudly shouting "La la la".
Most of the academic literature I've been able to find says polls struggle with referendums, I reckon we're even further into unchartered territory on this occasion - no other referendum has been conducted in the context of internet social media, such blatant vested interest and such a long running debate. In Ireland in 2001 the Euro poll 5 days before the vote got the result entirely the wrong way round, in a campaign with parallels to this one.
I'm sure i saw a poll mentioned on STV's ad for the debate. I'll try to find a link.
ReplyDeleteThe first person who mentioned being interviewed said that the questions were obviously skewed, and quoted one of them as being along the lines of : "In twenty years' time, do you think there will be more or less oil in the North Sea, or about the same amount?" So if there is an STV/Ipsos-Mori poll on the way, I can only draw one of two conclusions -
ReplyDelete1) There are two Ipsos-Mori polls in the field for different clients.
or
2) STV think the public are morons.
As I've said on many previous occasions, it's reprehensible in the extreme for STV to begin a debate with the results of a poll, because it unbalances the playing field before the debate even starts and colours people's reactions to what is said. But it's even more reprehensible when they pick out one of the two most No-friendly pollsters to conduct the poll, knowing full well that they'll be leaving viewers with a false impression of the state of play.
Why don't they just ask the, actual, referendum question? To do otherwise is a nonsense, looking for scare fodder, I suppose.
ReplyDeleteJimnArlene
"Why don't they just ask the, actual, referendum question? "
ReplyDeleteThey do that as well (possibly with a preamble which is never published).
James if STV want to make a massive fool of themselves then by all means let them have at it.
ReplyDeleteThe sheer unbridled stupidity of trying to tell the scottish public what they think before the debate even starts is far more likely to irritate undecideds than make their minds up for them.
Not to mention if STV or Ponsonby try to make a huge deal of this one MORI snapshot of polling it only gives Salmond the opportunity to point out just how wrong the polling for the scottish election was only a few years ago as well as highlight any skewed polling questions.
The scottish public are also well used to seeing political debates by now and they will very quickly see through any attempts at bias in the questions or debate format. So if STV or Ponsonby try any funny stuff they are the ones who will be left looking untrustworthy and pathetic after this first debate. (and this is still only be the first debate remember, there's plenty more to come)
STV has stated that the results of a poll by IpsosMori will be announced before the start of the debate. And I would be very surprised if it is not the one you are referring to James; or something extracted from that poll.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP has been closely involved in the construction of the AS v AD debate with STV and as SNP is a very savvy campaigner I am sure it has covered all its bases. Further, the SNP doesn't seem to place much credence on these organised polls and in the light of its record of election/referenda wins based on its methods against the pollsters' records who can blame them. The accuracy of the pollsters' results leaves a lot to be desired
And remember the detailed results, if published, skewed or otherwise, can be used by both sides in the furtherance of their campaigns.
James: An adjunct to my earlier post.
ReplyDeleteWhen I first read that a poll was to be announced before the debate began I assumed it would be of the audience, so that after the debate, another poll could be taken. (IpsosMori have chosen the supposedly 'balanced' audience, which I imagine includes UNDs.)
So maybe I am jumping the gun about the massive poll you mention.being used for the debate.
Maybe the customer thinks that the public will think that a bigger poll will, simply by being bigger, be more accurate.
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, if your methodology/technique is NFG then the results will be NFG whether you poll 100, 1,000, 10,000, or 100,000.
Of course there'll be less oil in twenty years, we will have pumped it up, refined it and used/sold it. But they'll be plenty left and all revenues used for Scotlands purposes. They really must think, we button up the back.
ReplyDeleteJimnArlene
Of course there'll be less oil in twenty years, we will have pumped it up, refined it and used/sold it. But they'll be plenty left and all revenues used for Scotlands purposes. They really must think, we button up the back.
ReplyDeleteJimnArlene
Sorry about the double up of comments, big fingers small keyboard.
ReplyDeleteJimnArlene
Scott
ReplyDeletePost about STV poll just now I came up as anonymous but I am Dubbieside.
I have now been polled three times in the last month. It must be becausse I am 67 retired, own my own house so I should fit the perceived profile for a No voter.
Scott
ReplyDeleteThis post was on your site and then vanished.
Scott
I have literally just got off the phone after being polled by IpsosMori about the Scottish referendum.
I am sure this one was for STV as at the end of the polling questions they asked if I would like my name to be passed to STV so I could take part in the referendum debate.
All the questions in this poll were I would say very straight with no preamble. How will you vote on September 18th and how likely are you to vote.
Also asked to rate A Salmond, N Sturgeon, A Darling, J Lamont, W Rennie R Davidson D Cameron and P Harvie.
Last question was identity with Scottish not British the last option.
Overall I thought that it was very fair, unlike the one I did last week which was obviously for the Lib Dems and had one question that stuck out, what has been the Lib Dems best achievement in Coalition government, with no option to say none of the above.
James.Poll defo being done for STV.Result to be announced at the start of the debate
ReplyDeleteSo, after all the ritual hand-wringing and bashing of all polls and specially 'No' polls whatever they are, we discover the poll in question seems to be fair to someone who took part in it. And we don't even know the result yet for heaven's sake. Yet even the mention of it is enough to release howls of rage. These polls seem to be hurting. People, they are just polls not enemy missiles.
ReplyDeleteWhen I first came to this site, I got here via 'What Scotland thinks' and a contributor who said 'Scot Goes Pop' was full of 'Shoot the messenger', in other words it ritually attacked any poll that didn't give it what it wanted. I started reading SGP and I didn't agree. It did attack YouGov but put forward interesting arguments as to why. And so I became a regular reader and occasional poster, even if a No.
But now it is as if SGP is beginnng to morph into the 'Shoot the Messenger' role. So many contributors clearly hate and distrust all polls and see them at worst as an instrument of oppression and at best as prejudiced and hoplessly incompetent. Even James is talking about 'bloody outrage' on something that is a rumour of a rumour of a poll! Come on.
The major assertion here sems to be nobody can ever accurately poll Scotland in a referendum or an election. Yet whever I look at the quoted evidence on both I find the polls have been relatively and reasonably accurate.
And there is also the very strange assertion that a YES cannot under any circumstnaces (breakdown? brain surgery? bereavement at a yes voter's hands?!) become a NO. That it is simply an utter impossibility This is a clear example of Messianic thinking. The fact you've never seen it means nothing. In fact a former SNP man was quoted in the papers today on his change from YES to NO . But that's irrelevant for it is not a question of finding one. I am much more concerned by the sheer fanaticism which truly believes a mindset cannot be changed by ANY circumstances. This is not conviction or enthusiasm it is blind allegiance. If people here are really so far gone they actually think that, then I fear for the country if Yes wins.
Which paper is this...
DeleteIn fact a former SNP man was quoted in the papers today on his change from YES to NO .
ReplyDeleteMissing word'ALLEGEDLY'.
"Yet whever I look at the quoted evidence on both I find the polls have been relatively and reasonably accurate"
ReplyDeleteSo you know the result already?
There has never been an accurate opinion poll in Scotland. The english pollsters can't cope with 4 party politics and the anti-tory tactical vote. Any similarity between a poll and the actual election result is pure chance.
ReplyDelete"This is not conviction or enthusiasm it is blind allegiance. If people here are really so far gone they actually think that, then I fear for the country if Yes wins."
ReplyDeleteOops.
You seem to have slipped up here again. Obviously no need for further explanation. We're all poll geeks here after all.
Not a bad effort in general. Sure it was thin, but overall a the higher end of the scale.
---
Polls reflect what people say, not what they intend. They may intend what they say, or, as e.g. 2011 showed us on a grand scale, the may be planning the opposite of what they say.
We can but wait and see.
Either people are being totally honest (which would be unique in polling) and we'll get something close, or they're not (which is the norm) as ICM showed quite clearly and Yes will do very well.
At face value, e.g. 45% Yes is a disaster for the union. What a mess. No seems incapable of winning 'properly'. It may get a rear-guard victory, but a shallow one. Sort of like 2007 again... close, but a wee bit of a wait for the cigar once more.
If people want life to be 'normal', then they need to vote Yes. A No just guarantees a continued crisis and more 'Scots are racists braveheart loving Nazis' crap etc.
How much can Scotland take of that is a pertinent question certainly.
See that Alex Massie is boasting on twitter that he lied to a Yes canvasser and his Unionist chums have taken his lie as absolute proof that the Yes canvass returns are nonsense.
ReplyDeleteThanks Survation. Where's the Yes bounce now? Can't wait to hear the "analysis".
ReplyDeleteAnon : Well, I do hope you're not disappointed. Analysis of the Survation poll, which shows Yes on the brink of victory, is now up.
ReplyDeleteGenuine question, but would a poll showing a likely YES win create a stir and the City and a likely run on sterling, and if so would Osborne be forced to agree to a currency union to calm the markets?
ReplyDeleteHe had to calm the markets by clarifying the UK Governments position on debt. Could this possibly explain the need to use push-polling to keep up the illusion of NO being ahead?
The reason I ask is because the polls don't tally with the private polling.
I can't see that this poll is any comfort to the No's. It certainly pleases me and I'm a Yes because we are talking about a Referendum here not an election. The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd. There are numerous examples of referenda opinion polls being massively out of line with the actual results. But always comforting to hear the arrogant and complacent attitudes of No supporters. I've travelled all over Scotland this week from Carter Bar to all points north and I am heartened by the visibility of the Yes campaign. There is not a part of the country we aren't present. It must be very depressing to be a No supporter and see window posters, car stickers and flags all over the shop. Can it really be that the huge discrepancy in our visibility and theirs is indicative of nothing about ground level support? Maybe but I'm not convinced. I guess by the babbling hysteria you get from them that they aren't either.
ReplyDeletePolls often don't tally with private polling. They didn't for the Republicans in the last US election , indeed the Republicans even supplied their private polling and returns to reporters to prove it. They still lost. As to the idea that politicians are somehow fixing polls to protect the pound, how exactly? Sounds like pure paranoia.
ReplyDelete'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd.'
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly do you mean? Why is it absurd? Opinion on a topic or an issue is often static, indeed it is more likely to be static than an election. You seem to be saying opinion must change because I want it to? Often it doesn't. And Survation has measured unchange for three months now as have most polls.
'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd.'
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly do you mean? Why is it absurd? Opinion on a topic or an issue is often static, indeed it is more likely to be static than an election. You seem to be saying opinion must change because I want it to? Often it doesn't. And Survation has measured unchange for three months now as have most polls.
'The notion that opinion is stuck in a referendum campaign in the way it is in an election is absurd.'
ReplyDeleteWhat exactly do you mean? Why is it absurd? Opinion on a topic or an issue is often static, indeed it is more likely to be static than an election. You seem to be saying opinion must change because I want it to? Often it doesn't. And Survation has measured unchange for three months now as have most polls.
What I mean is that one of the characteristics of referenda is that there can be sudden and unexpected movements of opinion. They aren't the same as elections where we can be fairly sure that at certain points of the electoral cycle that x tends to suggest y. The other point about them is that they are unique events so it's never possible to tell at any time in a campaign whether one particular set of data might be telling us anything useful in terms of the likely result because there is no comparative historical data. We can be fairly certain now for example on the basis of historic trends and data that the Cons will win the GE next year in the UK. But there has never been a referendum on Scottish independence before so nothing the polls show really tells us much since it is only after the event that analysis of any worth can be carried out. In the meantime we are left to dissect what data we have and speculate on its meaning.
ReplyDeleteBut anyway I thought I made my point when I said there were numerous examples of opinion polls in referenda being massively out of line with the actual results. In wales for example the Yes side had a huge lead in the recent referendum on additional powers but the result was far narrower than expected. The Welsh example is not unusual. There are plenty others.
ReplyDeleteI was polled on Friday by Ipsos/Mori. At first my aga was outwith the poll age requirement which I took umbrage sith as they had supposedly called randomly to poll the occupant. 2 hours later they called again as apparently the count was short. The first few questions were straightforward yes/no, then the strongly agree.......to strongly disagree ones. Then the crux of the questions were clearly set with a range of Yes Positives- that needed what do you believe is untrue or NO Positives what would be the worst to lose (all options were things already in place by Scottish Government!) And so it went on, I made my feelings clear as to the misleading questions and said I could not answer a misleading question with an answer to which the telephonist was happy to note none or all. Anyone who does not have their wits about them during a 20mins poll would start to say anything to get to the end. Having read plenty of literature claim and counter claim I knew every pitfall someone could fall into sith the wording of the questions. All I can say is no wonder Ipsos/Mori polls are always so far off the figures produced by others
ReplyDeleteAnd finally we have already seen movement in this campaign from No to Yes so to suggest further movement is possible doesn't seem unreasonable. Of course it cannot be predicted easily in the way it can with elections because the historic models and data upon which predictions can be made are absent.
ReplyDeleteExpat, why do you need to keep posting multiple times? We saw it the first time. Are you incompetent?
ReplyDeleteJames, when are you going to put a "donate" button on this site so that some of us can at least buy you a wee dram (wee is all it would be) to keep you going over the next 6 weeks?
ReplyDeletePoll this, Poll that...It's all just a load of crap...I've never been asked what my opinions are, neither has anyone I know and they are all yes supporters from various walks of life...
ReplyDeleteThe "Latest Polls" are just something to keep the mainstream media occupied in the run up to the vote itself.
Lets just keep on telling any no or undecided voters the real facts about independence and we're on a winner.
Alastair, he ran a wee fundraiser, didn't you see it?
ReplyDeleteAye Rolfe, but that was ages ago, before I and probably a few others had realised the worth of his site.
ReplyDeleteSeems like yesterday to me!
ReplyDelete