Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Wisdom on Wednesday : Choose your words carefully, because they may have to last you for a while

"If we vote No, the sole message that London will hear is: do whatever you like to us, because we don't care enough to stop you."

Author and playwright Alan Bissett.


  1. That was close. It was almost "thoughts on thursday":)

  2. I missed my chance to do "Veracity on Valentine's Day".

  3. Hi, James.

    Do you have any insight about when is next poll expected?



  4. There seems to be a Panelbase poll underway, so that might appear at the weekend (unless it's an internal Yes campaign poll that is never published).

  5. Don't be giving Blair McDougall ideas, dalriadan, he'll start up a Frights on Friday.

  6. ICM Poll of Glasgow?

  7. ICM glasgow looks like just the ICM viewer subset from the debate poll.

    What's that 15 days now since the last published national poll fieldwork?

    Where were the blow for Salmond polls pre- and post-debates?

  8. Ta. I was actually hoping Glasgow was doing better than that!!

  9. I imagine Glasgow is doing better. The ICM poll was a poll of people who agreed to be polled / watch the debate / be polled again. It's not a normal national poll.

  10. Perhaps your headline is something Blare McDougal should have thought about before telling Scots that the difference between the campaigns is not love of country but love of family. So Yes voters don't love their families?

  11. Was out yesterday and going back out campaigning today, but more than enough time to laugh at it all going pear-shaped for cowardly Cameron as his amusingly counterproductive visit to scotland joins all the other hilarious blunders from the No campaign this week.

    CBI Scotland scales back annual dinner after watchdog rules it pro-UK campaign event

    One of Britain’s largest business groups has been forced to radically scale back its annual dinner in Scotland after the electoral watchdog ruled it is a Unionist campaign event in the independence referendum.

    Relations with the nationalists reached a nadir earlier this year when the organisation, which represents around 1,200 businesses in Scotland, decided to register with the commission as a supporter of the Better Together campaign.
    This would have allowed it to spend more than £10,000 during the referendum campaign, but it withdrew its registration documents after a series of publicly-funded organisations, including several universities, resigned their membership of the business group.

    Yet another 'master strategy' from the incompetent fop.


    But wait! There's even more. :-)

    Tory MP Douglas Carswell has just defected to UKIP.

    It's wall to wall across the news and will be ALL over the papers.

    Expect that to hammer home to the scottish public just how right-wing rUK and westminster has become.

    Not forgetting how much it will remind scots of the looming prospect of scotland being booted out of Europe in the IN/OUT EU referendum even if scotland voted to stay in.

    Poor old tory twits.


    Political Betting/Stormfront Lite will be deluged with earsplitting shrieking from the tory twits and the out and out racists and bigots that dominate it.

  12. As if all that wasn't enough, and with immaculate timing, there's an utterly damning report just out condemning westminster's out of touch elite.

    Warning over Britain's 'elitism'

    Britain is “deeply elitist”, according to a Government-commissioned analysis of the backgrounds of prominent public figures.

    The Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, chaired by former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn, looked at the upbringing of more than 4,000 figures from business, politics, the public sector and the media.

    It found that half of those now sitting in the House of Lords attended independent schools, along with 36% of the current cabinet, and 22% of the shadow cabinet.

    By comparison, just 7% of the UK population as a whole attended private school. Mr Milburn told the Today programme it was "hard to avoid the conclusion that Britain remains a fundamentally elitist society."

    Perfect moment for the scottish public to be 'treated' to the out of touch cowardly Cameron attending his lovely posh CBI dinner in scotland and lecturing scots on just how 'better together' we are with the tories and westminster.

  13. I filled out a YouGov poll last night - in addition to the yes/no, lots of questions on what your voting motivations are and what it would take for you to change your vote. Also questions on the TV adverts the campaigns have been running.

  14. Seeing that YouGov announced yesterday that they’re changing their polling methodology

    They do state it won’t change the overall UK figures much – they mention it moves the overall Labour (and Conservative and Lib dem) vote down a fraction of a point. But does it have an effect on the Scottish sample? Is it a coincidence that the Scottish subsample for yesterday and today’s polls show an average SNP lead over Labour of +2% which compares with what I calculate was an average 10% Labour lead over the past 10 UK-wide YouGov polls?
    One to keep an eye on.

  15. Ive found it bizarre at the lack of polls over the last two weeks. Why is this? I would have thought this was the period for bucket loads of polls as we enter the last weeks?
    After the STV debate there were a gamut of polls but since the BBC debate .. none. Surely papers would have wanted to see if there was any bounce effect following Monday's debate?

    So there might be an ICM one on the way as reported on this thread but we don't even know if that will be published.

    Could it be that polls are taken but not released?

  16. mike gunn:

    "Could it be that polls are taken but not released?"

    That's always a possibility, especially when we're talking about polls commissioned by a partisan side. There's nothing that forces any side to release a private poll, so there's always the chance that they might just bury polls that don't fit their narrative.

    1. Stoat :
      Thats what I thought. so if the polls were buried we know why. The next question then is - Is it likely that no polls were taken in the last two weeks?

  17. Surely we will get a glut of polls over the weekend.

    Would be very surprised if none of the sunday papers had polls.

  18. "Thats what I thought. so if the polls were buried we know why. The next question then is - Is it likely that no polls were taken in the last two weeks?"

    Not very, but since we also don't know who might have commissioned and then buried their poll, that doesn't help us much.

    What's the going rate for a poll these days? Maybe we should have a whip-round on here.

  19. You would think that the sunday times will definitely be carrying one.

    As there number is up this weekend.

    ICM must be due as well?

  20. Pollster certainly need to get numbers out as quickly as possible after polling. In 2011, the gap was opening at ~0.5%/day in the final few weeks.

    In theory that meant if you polled over 3 days your numbers were already out of date by the end of the feildwork.


    Blow for Salmond as No Polls

  21. If they wanted to do all the fieldwork post-debate, then the earliest the polls could really come out would be this weekend.

    The first polls fully conducted after the first debate didn't come out until the 17th August, 12 days afterwards, although there had been a women only and a couple whose fieldwork straddled the debate.

  22. Brian

    But there were polls in particular a Survation one days later which was spun as huge debate win for No.

    We have had no polls since the tide turned.

  23. Just in long enough to catch the News with the cowardly fop Cameron deploying his amazing 'master strategy' of trying to persuade scots they are 'better together' with him and the tories.

    Needles to say it was as comical and convincing and you would expect.



    The shrieking from the out of touch tory twits must be shattering glass after the kind of day the incompetent fop and the No campaign have had.


  24. Denise, true, but if the tide is turning, keeping all the fieldwork after the debate will magnify any bounce.

    Hopefully our patience will be rewarded at the weekend. Fingers crossed anyway.

  25. Looks like a Survation coming our way.

    Alan Roden ‏@AlanRoden 21 mins
    Does the Yes campaign have #indyref momentum following the BBC debate? The first exclusive poll will be in tomorrow's Scottish Daily Mail.

    1. If its for the Daily Mail I won't hold my breath.
      I can see it now - "Darling in shock win as No regains momentum!"

  26. Has anyone noticed how the posts on this site have completely transformed, almost 360 degrees. Not so long ago the polls were denounced as despicable crap, and No supporters who took any interest in them were pitied as saddos with nothing else. Now everyone thirsts for new polls as if they were water in a desert.

    In fact now their ABSENCE is the cause of more paranoid conspiracy: they must be wonderful and are being horribly suppressed. Let's put the record straight. A few of the published polls are commissioned by one side or the other but most are commissioned by news outlets, who wouldn't want to suppress them and waste their money, especially if they had some great new story to tell. For the record I am not going to be hugely surprised if Panelbase produce a good Yes poll at the weekend but by far the most likely scenario for the absence of polls is simply that media outlets wanted to run them after the debate.

    In fact the debate is much less interesting to me than the question of an overall turn.

    But I also wanted to correct something I saw on this site from a contributor claiming Rupert Murdoch had told the Leveson committee he was not backing independence. In fact he said nothing of the kind. What he said was that despite his great admiration for Salmond (chillingly the only current UK politician Murdoch is on record as adoring, having turned his back on all the others because of their stance on Leveson ) he was enthused about Scottish independence yet still neutral. But do not be fooled for a moment. That is EXACTLY what Murdoch always says when he wants to extract the maximum impact. from an endorsement. There is good evidence Salmon did a deal with Murdoch and I think he is about to reap his reward. Murdoch is just waiting for the polls to turn.

  27. @Expat.
    The simple reason for any excitement, is that folk up here knew the polls were crap. We know Yes is well ahead, and are waiting for the polling firms to stop their games, and publish the truth.
    It's coming yet, for a' that.

  28. Jeez expat, you are sounding a bit paranoid there.

    All a Murdoch-Salmond conspiracy...



  29. Seriously expat - are you ok?

    So the theory is Murdoch is pro-Yes because he 'admires' Salmond etc yet knows everyone hates him personally so tells the world he and AS are best buddies to encourage a Yes?

    I've come across a few tinfoil hat theories in my time, but this one is right up there.

    'chillingly' :-)

  30. Survation for daily mail incoming tonight

  31. "I've come across a few tinfoil hat theories in my time, but this one is right up there."

    Not as good as the one where an out of touch fuckwit of a tory PM hires a Murdoch Editor to be his spindoctor, is warned, repeatedly, not to hire him, then subsequently his close chum and chief spindoctor then ends up in PRISON.

    Who would ever believe something as far-fetched and ludicrous as that?

    "You couldn't make it up", as the tabloids used to say.


  32. Interesting. The Mail sound rather too pleased about it for it to be good for Yes...

  33. Oh and so as I don't forget, there are many people in scotland concerned over the appalling things that happened in Rotherham. Naturally they don't want to be associated with the repulsive racists who are drooling all over the story.

    As I was reminded today, if you want to help there will likely be a Barnado's charity shop near you where you can donate to help some of the selfless people trying their best to fill in the gaps and bring attention to where institutions like the police and some councils have quite obviously failed appallingly in their duty of care to the vulnerable and powerless.

  34. I was watching the Leveson enquiry live and Murdoch did not support Independence. So just fuck off with your lies.

    And notice the usual smear of Salmon(D) doing deals with Murdoch.
    There were no SNP MPs at the annual Murdoch garden party. Just half the labour shadow cabinet. millipede included. Must try harder or blair won't unchain you for your midnight feeding.

  35. mike: Unless they asked a skewed question, we can't discount it just because it's for the Mail.

  36. Oh, wait here we go:

    No 53% (-4), Yes 47% (+4)