There's a new Survation poll on its way tonight, but unless it appears very soon I'm not going to be able to cover it with any speed, because I've got an early start tomorrow and I'll be away all day. (That should fuel the cynicism of our favourite No trolls!) What we know so far is that it shows some kind of increase in the No lead since the Survation poll last week showing Yes still on an all-time high of 47% - that's obvious from Alan Roden's eagerness to talk about the poll so early in the evening, and by the usual assortment of thuggish No campaign staffers who have retweeted him. So there are three broad possibilities -
1) This is a minor, margin-of-error increase in the No lead of no statistical significance, but the No campaign are latching onto it in an effort to generate an impression of post-debate "momentum".
2) This is a more substantial increase in the lead, but is caused by a more extreme form of 'margin of error noise', and is still of no great significance. (A previous example is when ICM showed an increase in the No lead from 3% to 12% a few months ago, but in retrospect it's clear that nothing had happened.)
3) It's a substantial increase in the No lead, which is genuinely caused by a reaction to the debate. If so, there is absolutely no cause for panic, because post-debate bounces are often built on candy-floss. (Witness the Cleggasm, which was ultimately followed by the Liberal Democrats suffering a net loss in seats.) Indeed, in this case, Darling's so-called "win" in the debate wasn't even real - the only instant poll on the night pointed to a draw. So a bounce built purely on the spin the media have put on a debate is likely to recede even faster.
I'll update the Poll of Polls as soon as I can, although I suspect by then we may have even more polls from the Sunday papers.