Sunday, April 20, 2014

Landmark Survation poll confirms that pro-independence campaign have closed the gap to lowest level so far

As it's Easter Sunday, I'll just keep this brief and give you the figures -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 38% (+1)
No 46% (-1)

On these rounded numbers, the No lead of 8% is 1% lower than the previous record low reported by Survation. However, in the last-but-one poll from the firm, the No lead on the unrounded figures was 8.3%, so it remains to be seen whether this poll will represent a record low on that measure as well (unless the unrounded figures have already been published and I can't find them!).

With Don't Knows excluded, the position is -

Yes 45% (+1)
No 55% (-1)

I see John Curtice is again peddling the line that these numbers are consistent with a static picture over the most recent period. That may be true, but with the Survation poll having been conducted at the same time as the ICM one, and with both showing a reduction in the No lead (to what may well be a new low for the campaign in both cases), the likelihood is that the Yes camp have indeed made further progress - albeit the jury is still out on the scale of that progress.

* * *


For the second time in less than twelve hours, I'm delighted to report that the No lead has slipped to yet another all-time low in the Poll of Polls!

MEAN AVERAGE (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 35.6% (+0.2)
No 47.1% (-0.2)

MEAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 43.0% (+0.2)
No 57.0% (-0.2)

MEDIAN AVERAGE (excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 42.0% (n/c)
No 58.0% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the pollsters that have been active in the referendum campaign, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are seven - YouGov, TNS-BMRB, Angus Reid, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos-Mori and ICM. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample. Changes in the Poll of Polls are generally glacial in nature due to the fact that only a small portion of the sample is updated each time.)

And here are the updated long-term trend figures -

The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures :

Sep 2013 - 20.2%
Sep 2013 - 20.0%
Sep 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 17.9%
Oct 2013 - 17.5%
Oct 2013 - 17.4%
Nov 2013 - 17.5%
Dec 2013 - 17.1%
Dec 2013 - 16.3%
Dec 2013 - 16.2%
Dec 2013 - 15.8%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.8%
Feb 2014 - 14.7%
Feb 2014 - 15.1%
Feb 2014 - 13.6%
Feb 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.0%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 14.3%
Mar 2014 - 13.6%
Mar 2014 - 12.9%
Mar 2014 - 13.0%
Mar 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.6%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 11.9%
Apr 2014 - 11.5%

And the updated averages for the four online pollsters that have reported so far this year -

MEAN AVERAGE OF ONLINE POLLSTERS (not excluding Don't Knows) :

Yes 38.5% (+0.2)
No 46.3% (-0.2)


Yes 45.4% (+0.2)
No 54.6% (-0.2)


Yes 46.1% (+0.5)
No 53.9% (-0.5)


  1. Over on Political Racism they've recovered from the initial shock and are back to Slobodan Salmond, stealing the oil and making Wales into a Kingdom so that the UK will still exist!!!!!!!!!?????

  2. Also from Stormfront for dummies. "There has been no narrowing in the polls" Mark Senior.

  3. Interested to see the figures with Angus Reid removed....

  4. The trajectory of travel is heading to YES2014.

    However, on polling data, just how accurate are some of these polling numbers? I know that panelbase has made important changes to their weighting of samples. How might this reflect on changing sizes of poll leads?

    Plus, why is it YouGov & Panelbase have hither-till-now shown such a radically divergent picture? They cannot both be correct!

  5. Dean : It's quite possible that YouGov would be producing broadly similar numbers to the other online pollsters if they used the same weighting procedures. The bigger worry is Ipsos-Mori - there's always the possibility that they may be producing better figures for No simply because they're the only pollster conducting their fieldwork by telephone (although there are other methodological features that also set them apart).

    It's weird that the two extremes at the moment are being provided by two of the biggest names in UK polling - ICM at the Yes-friendly end, Ipsos-Mori at the No-friendly end.