Sunday, November 24, 2013

Support for independence increases in latest Panelbase poll

Broadly speaking, it's 'steady as she goes' in the latest Panelbase poll on independence referendum voting intentions, with the pro-independence campaign remaining firmly within striking distance, and the anti-independence campaign retaining their vulnerable single-digit lead. However, in complete contrast to the trend shown in recent polls by TNS-BMRB, there has been a drop in the number of undecided voters, with support for both Yes and No rising slightly as a result. Here are the full figures -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 38% (+1)
No 47% (+2)

The percentage change figures given above are from the most recent Panelbase poll conducted for Wings over Scotland. However, today's poll is for the Sunday Times series, which is why most media outlets are reporting percentage changes from the last poll in the same series. By that measure, No are static, Yes are up one point, and the overall No lead has dropped from ten points to nine.

As ever, John Curtice has been quick off the mark in offering a detailed analysis of the poll. His most encouraging point is that the gap between the two sides has remained as narrow as before, in spite of the fact that Panelbase have just corrected a glitch in their methodology (an under-representation of older respondents) that could conceivably have led to a slight understatement of support for No in their previous polls.

Reading between the lines of something else Curtice said, I presume there are also Holyrood voting intention figures in this poll, but so far I haven't tracked them down. I don't pay the Murdoch levy, which always makes things slightly trickier!

Last but not least, I thought you might be amused to know that in a frantic attempt to find a positive spin to put on this poll, anti-independence campaign supremo Blair McDougall is busily comparing it on Twitter not to the last Panelbase poll, nor even to the second-last, but to the THIRD-last one that was conducted way back in August! He really does seem to take a perverse pride in not only being a troll, but in being seen to be a troll.

1 comment:

  1. Margin of error figures, however despite negative media reports that a Yes vote will be the end of the world for Scotland, their doom laden script is not scaring us all to a No vote. Not that many are engaged into the campaign proper which hasn't really started.