Sunday, March 24, 2013

Panelbase shows yet another swing in favour of independence - plus a huge SNP lead for Holyrood

I seem to be saying this quite a lot recently, but the latest poll on independence voting intentions shows a swing to the Yes campaign. Better still, it also marks the No side's lowest lead in any poll this year.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 36% (+2)
No 46% (-1)

Strictly speaking the figures cannot be considered directly comparable to the previous poll by Panelbase, because the real referendum question is now being used. But in a sense that's good news - poll after poll is reaffirming that, at the very least, the new Electoral Commission-approved question is not helping the No side. All the pollsters who have given a verdict so far this year are now unanimous in showing a small swing to Yes in their most recent poll - Panelbase had previously been the odd one out on that score.

If the news from this poll is moderately encouraging on the referendum question, it's positively wonderful on the question of voting intention for the Scottish Parliament -

Constituency vote :

SNP 47% (+2)
Labour 30% (-3)
Conservatives 12% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-)

Regional list vote :

SNP 45% (+1)
Labour 25% (-6)
Conservatives 12% (-)
Greens 8% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-)

Which leaves only one question to be answered. Can anything stop the Willie Rennie For First Minister bandwagon?

* * *

For anyone feeling depressed about the state of Scottish sport after events at Hampden, it might be of some consolation to know that Scotland have reached the final of the world women's curling championship tomorrow. I've just watched a recording of the semi-final against Canada, and I had a sick feeling in my stomach over the last thirty minutes as the game seemed to be slipping away. But not for the first time, Eve Muirhead saved the day with a special final shot.


  1. Can you post some sort of source for these, even if it's not linkable?

  2. Good News, I have put a link to the info on Rev Stu's site at Wings Over Scotland.

  3. Thanks, Marcia.

    RevStu: The poll was published in the Sunday Times, and was jointly commissioned by Real Radio. Panelbase also have their own website where they eventually post the breakdowns of polls, but unfortunately it usually takes them about a century.

  4. Voting for Scottish Parliament – Greens would replace LDs as 3rd party.
    Scotland Votes calculator would give Greens 8 seats – 2 each from SNP & Lab. 1 each from Con & LD.
    SNP would take 6 Lab & 2 Con constituencies.

  5. And if all that`s not good enough for you, the Curling World Championship has been won by Eve Muirhead's rink. Scotland are World Champions. Well done to all the girls.

  6. James, can you point us to where on the Panelbase site(s) the results - centuries old or not - might be? I have never managed to find any of them, but then I am a silly old Angus.

  7. old nat,

    Whilst it is very good news, do the Greens actually get an additional six members on the basis of an apparent 0.2% bump?

  8. Angus, it's this page. There seems to be two polling companies called Panelbase, and if you type 'Panelbase' into Google the first result that comes up points to the wrong one.

  9. Cancel that - they both have the same logo, so the same company must have two different websites for some reason!

  10. "Panelbase also have their own website where they eventually post the breakdowns of polls, but unfortunately it usually takes them about a century."

    Last week's results were on our website by Tuesday morning. This link takes you to published tables:

    If this ever doesn't seem to be up to date it may be due to a caching issue, in which case please try:

    Finally, for info, is the site for our panel members - the .com website is the client facing one, and is where we host the tables.

    Hope this helps.