Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Ipsos-Mori becomes third pollster this year to show a swing in favour of independence

Here are the latest Ipsos-Mori findings on independence, which make highly encouraging reading for the Yes campaign -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 34% (+4)
No 55% (-3)

In theory the percentage changes should be treated with caution, because the question has of course changed since the last Ipsos-Mori poll. But I thought the new Electoral Commission-approved question was supposed to be "yet another catastrophe for Salmond", oh wise London media? Apparently not.

Ipsos-Mori now joins Angus Reid and TNS-BMRB as pollsters that have shown a swing to the Yes side this year. The odd one out is Panelbase, which showed a swing in the other direction - although ironically the No lead is still smaller with Panelbase than anyone else. What we really need now to complete the picture is a new poll from YouGov, which is traditionally among the most favourable pollsters for No (arguably because Mr Kellner insists on "clarifying" what the referendum question "really means" before inviting his respondents to answer it).

Elsewhere in the Ipsos-Mori poll, there's no comfort for the anti-independence side on Holyrood voting intention either -

Constituency vote :

SNP 43% (+3)
Labour 35% (-)
Conservatives 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)
Others 2% (-2)

For reasons lost in the mists of time, Ipsos-Mori do not seem to ask for voting intentions on the regional list. However, there are personal satisfaction ratings for various politicians...

Nicola Sturgeon (SNP, Deputy First Minister) +17
Alex Salmond (SNP, First Minister) +7
Alistair Darling (Labour, figurehead of anti-independence campaign) +1
David Cameron (Conservative, UK Prime Minister) -40

The difference between Sturgeon and Salmond is arguably slightly misleading, as 50% of the electorate are satisfied with them both - it's the dissatisfaction rating that drags Salmond's figure down a bit more.


  1. Now I can see why Labour turned their guns on Mrs Murrell during last month. They can try but won't succeed.

  2. The thing that I find surprising is the SNP's Holyrood vote remains constant, it more or less matches the Panelbase poll last month. So different polling organisation are getting the same results.