The Mail are manfully spinning this for all it's worth (yes, they even use the traditional words "huge setback"!), but I'm afraid facts are chiels that winna ding - the first poll on independence using the new referendum question approved by the Electoral Commission shows a straightforward 1.5% swing to the Yes side since last month.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 32% (-)
No 47% (-3)
That change is within the margin of error, so not too much should be read into it. However, these figures are strikingly similar to the recent TNS-BMRB poll, which showed a static Yes vote, but a significant number of previous No voters reverting to the 'don't know' camp.
If there has indeed been a recent swing to the Yes side, questions will surely be asked in the No camp as to whether David Cameron's recent speech on the EU is to blame.
There were some who said that the new question actually encouraged them to vote Yes.
ReplyDeleteOf course, as you say, it could well be that the EU uncertainty has worried Scots, who are more European than the English, and who depend upon European trade more than the English.
In any case, a good poll is always encouraging, but may mean nothing.
As I say here, I look forward to the apologies that will surely follow:
ReplyDeletehttp://reportingthereferendum.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/different-question-different-answer-yes.html
I'm a bit confused by the whole 'swing' thing.
ReplyDeleteIf I understand correctly, the 'Yes' favourability has moved from 30.5% to 32.0%.
That's a movement of 1.5%, but does that not equate to a 'swing' of 5%, as in 1.5 is 5% of 30.5?
Maybe just me...
Anyway, sounds good either way
Sorry, let me rephrase last post.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that the 'No' side has fallen 3 percentage points since the previous poll.
Is that not a swing of 6% (i.e. 3 divided by 50)...someone explain and I will happily shut up!
To calculate swing from No to Yes, basically you add the rise in the Yes vote to the fall in the No vote, and then divide by two. In this case the rise in the Yes vote is zero and the fall in the No vote is three. So 3 + 0 = 3, 3 / 2 = 1.5
ReplyDeleteArguably the pollsters should be excluding the don't knows as they do in standard voting intention polls, in which case the true swing would be marginally bigger.
Surely the most important point about this poll is that if the votes were actually cast in line with it "Yes" would get over 40% which does not look like certain defeat to me.
ReplyDeleteSurely the most important point about this poll is that if the votes were actually cast in line with it "Yes" would get over 40% which does not look like certain defeat to me.
ReplyDelete