Monday, October 22, 2012

No campaign's own poll shows increase in support for independence

Another day, another mildly encouraging poll - but this one is courtesy of the No campaign. I seem to recall this isn't the first time that a Better Together poll has backfired in this way - thanks again, chaps. Here are the figures...

Yes 31% (+4)
No 56% (-4)

It's a YouGov poll, so the percentage changes are from the last YouGov poll on independence in August. It pretty much entirely reverses the Olympic blip that our unionist friends got so excited about at the time - the pre-Olympic figures were Yes 30%, No 54%.

The poll also shows that as many as 21% of Labour supporters will vote for independence. It strikes me that either Tom Harris' sneering claim that the Labour for Independence group must be "Nats pretending to be Labour" is wrong, or else Labour activists are utterly failing to represent the views of their own voters. I hope (and believe) it's the former.

It's probably already been widely discussed elsewhere, but I've also just spotted that there was a YouGov poll commissioned by the SNP a few days ago -

The 'Yes' campaign is deploying a series of arguments as part of their campaign to achieve a 'Yes' vote for an independent Scotland in the referendum in 2014 – for example they point to statistics showing that Scotland generates 9.6% of UK taxes, but receives just 9.3% of UK spending in return. If the 'Yes' campaign could persuade you that you and your family would be economically better off with Scottish independence, in these circumstances, how likely or unlikely would you be to vote 'Yes' for an independent Scotland in 2014?

Likely 45%
Unlikely 36%

So we now know that the Scottish people will vote for independence if they think the Tories will win the next general election, or if they think they would be economically better-off. Hmmm. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this somehow doesn't strike me as being the hopeless position for the Yes campaign that the London media would have us believe.


  1. Bearing in mind that a second Tory government or being economically better off would make most people vote yes, I'm surprised that the yes vote isn't already leading.

    However, it does go to show how easily it could be won if the right arguments are deployed. Also, ~October 2014 will only be 8 months from the next general election and I've spoken to nobody (both unionists and nationalists) in my personal life who believes that the Tories wont win a second term. Maybe that thought will begin to lodge itself in people's minds as the referendum and the next general election draws closer.

  2. I expect mr Cameron took the Olympic blip figures seriously when he decided to celebrate the start of hostilities in a war which killed and maimed many millions of people.

    I'm sure a national day of remembrance at some stage just a couple of weeks before the referendum, together with some serious efforts to get Harry wed the week before, and Kate Middleton to produce a prince on the day, is in the plans for 2014.

    Mind you, they arranged for the prince and Ms Middleton to get married around the time of the Scottish elections in 2011.

    That worked a treat for unionism, didn't it...?

  3. Hah! I used the day off for the wedding to go round leafleting!