YouGov poll : SNP lead steady on both ballots

No rest for the wicked - no sooner had I finished saying that I wasn't sure if YouGov voting intention figures were going to appear today, they appear!

Constituency vote :

SNP 42% (-)
Labour 35% (+1)
Conservatives 11% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

Regional list vote :

SNP 35% (-)
Labour 32% (-1)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 6% (-1)

This is basically a steady-as-she-goes poll - the SNP lead has crept up a bit on the regional list ballot, but has slipped very slightly in the constituencies. Of course it's the regional list vote that essentially determines the outcome, so it's slightly concerning that the lead there remains within the standard margin of error (a 'statistical tie', as the Americans would put it). But the good news is that it really does now look like the Royal Wedding has had no impact at all.

As a reference-point, the YouGov poll at the equivalent stage four years ago showed SNP leads of 6% and 5% respectively - so if today's leads are being overstated by the same amounts, this could yet be very close. However, a significant difference this time is that we won't have the Sun attempting a hatchet job on the SNP tomorrow morning (quite the reverse, in fact).

UPDATE : One point of concern from the YouGov polling that I hadn't previously spotted is that the SNP lead is largely founded on support from younger age groups - an exact reversal of the pattern in 2007. The problem is that the younger you are, the less likely you are to turn out to vote. Of course reported likelihood to vote is already factored into the headline YouGov figures - but unfortunately an unrealistic 70% of respondents claimed they were 'absolutely certain to vote', leaving an important question mark hanging in the air.