Wednesday, March 30, 2011

SNP storm into constituency vote lead with YouGov

Hot on the heels of Alex Salmond's clear win in the first TV debate comes a significant piece of corroboration of the good news for the SNP in yesterday's TNS-BMRB poll. YouGov actually has them one point ahead on the constituency vote, although they still trail Labour on the regional list. Here are the (almost) full figures -

Constituency vote :

SNP 40% (+2)
Labour 39% (-2)
Conservatives 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)

Regional list vote :

Labour 39% (-)
SNP 32% (-)
Conservatives ?
Greens 6% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)

This is the fifth Holyrood poll in a row to show the SNP up on their winning 2007 share - by a full seven points on the constituency vote, and one point on the list. The difference between the two ballots is slightly puzzling, given that in all three previous Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP's vote has held up somewhat better on the list than Labour's. There's no immediately obvious reason why that would change so dramatically now, and it has to be said in the last election some pollsters had the differential between the two ballots 'the wrong way round', so to speak.

Concluding grumble : I must say it really is intensely irritating that the Scotsman report manages to mention every single figure other than the Tories' regional list vote. Would it really kill them to find a spot to present the raw numbers in a straightforward fashion?


  1. "Yes" to the concluding grumble. Scotsman, straightforward.... nah, doesn't work for me.

    I suppose Labour could say their vote was, erm holding up, ish... sorta, in a manner of a downward sort of way. Eh, Ponsonby?

    Poor old Liberals. It's no fault of Scottish Liberals, but the company their English cousins keep, and the compromises they have had to make to run with the big boys in London, appears to have done them no end of harm, even in this country.

    I wonder what tonight's debate, which I have not yet seen, will bring to the table... and to these figures.

    The Herald has very little on it, and I can't see anything in the English papers.

  2. PS.. the picture in the Herald is a hoot. I suspect they may change it very soon and the picture editor will have his hands smacked...!

    If they do, have no fear. I've saved it and I'll use it as soon as possible on the blog.