Saturday, April 17, 2010

ComRes and ICM confirm that Lib Dem surge is disproportionately harming the Tories

Within the last hour we've had two more polls that confirm the story of YouGov last night - namely that, although both Labour and the Tories have taken a hit from Nick Clegg's win in the first leaders' debate, it's the Tories that have suffered slightly more (thus making Iain Dale's dreams that it would lead to a 1983-style result look even more distant!). ComRes have the Tories down four and Labour down two, although this does have the effect of pushing Labour into third place, which is what will probably dominate the headlines. According to ICM the Lib Dems haven't quite broken out of third place, but they nevertheless knock three points off the Tories, and two off Labour.

Despite my fury at the opportunity given to the Lib Dems in the leaders' debates that has been wholly and cynically denied to other parties with parliamentary representation, I'm beginning to wonder if some good may yet come out of this. To delve into the realms of the fantastical for a moment, there can be little doubt that a Liberal Democrat-led government would go furthest and fastest in providing the sort of constitutional reforms that Scotland desperately needs and that the SNP have been campaigning for - proper electoral reform for the House of Commons (not Brown's majoritarian con), an elected House of Lords, and above all else enhanced powers for the Scottish Parliament.

Of course, the Lib Dems are likely to slip back again in the coming days and this will all come to nothing...but just suppose for a moment they don't. Wouldn't it be a delicious irony if by setting up these rigged debates, the ultra-unionists have set in train a process that is now completely out of their control, and one that will indirectly further the Scottish national cause significantly?


  1. It is the wrong week to get the 'surge' it should the be final few days. Could help the SNP if a hung parliament looks like a possibility.


  2. Read Kenneth Roy's Scottish Review as below.

    We were a foreign country looking into that debate, he says.

    It is working against TheLibSDumConLabs.

  3. It's all a question of if he can hold on to the momentum and who knows if he can perform well again over the next 2 weeks.

    I'm with you. The referendum looks like it’s not going to be allowed so if independence is going to happen incrementally, then we need the Liberals to push it along the road and they will.