After last month's unusual ComRes subsample that had Labour languishing in third place, tonight's poll has the party back in a substantial lead over the SNP. The Conservatives slip to third place, with a vote share that, like almost all recent subsamples, gives very little cause for optimism that David Cameron's party will achieve the 24-26% share at the general election that might be seen as vaguely respectable for an incoming party of government. Here are the full figures -
Labour 40% (+18)
SNP 25% (-7)
Conservatives 21% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
Others 4% (-8)
The fieldwork was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday, so these figures can in no way be seen as a post-Glasgow NE bounce for Labour. In any case, it's always worth remembering that ComRes generally have much smaller Scottish subsamples than YouGov, and the figures are accordingly far less meaningful.
The fact that there are figures of +18, -7 and -8 swings, without there having been some ground shaking event to cause that, suggests an unreliability in the sample size.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be throwing a party if I were whatsisname... you know, the leader of the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament, Iain Murphy, or whatever.