Friday, April 10, 2009

Cameron - the Tories' last chance?

Mike Smithson is pondering the intriguing question - what happens to David Cameron if he doesn't win the next election? Are there circumstances in which he might be forced out as party leader?

In actual fact, I think it's almost inevitable that if Labour emerge from the next election as both the largest party and the governing party that Cameron will either fall on his sword or find himself ejected. The last leader of one of the two main parties to survive an election defeat was Neil Kinnock way back in 1987, and even that probably only happened because expectations had been so low all along. So perhaps the even more interesting question is - what happens to the Tories if Cameron departs? Would they be able to hold their nerve as Labour did after an unexpected fourth defeat in 1992, or would they lurch to the right as a reflex? If the latter, the stakes in the next election could hardly be higher. The Tories may be on course to sweep to victory as things stand, but if they slip up the price they pay might not be just a fourth term in opposition - it could be a fifth and a sixth term as well.

1 comment:

  1. I can't see much difference between Tory and New Labour. It wouldn't surprise me if the major English parties formed a coalition government as they have the same agenda.