Sunday, February 15, 2009

New ComRes Scottish sub-sample

In refreshing contrast to most of the other pollsters, ComRes have recently got into the habit of releasing their detailed figures on the same night the poll is published. Here is the Scottish breakdown -

Labour 38% (+10)
SNP 24% (-8)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+2)
Conservatives 9% (-12)
Others 11% (+8)

A disappointing showing for the SNP - indeed it's their lowest percentage share in any sub-sample for several weeks. It's particularly surprising given that the UK-wide figures are disastrous for Labour -

Conservatives 41% (-2)
Labour 25% (-7)
Liberal Democrats 22% (+6)
Others 12% (-)

As always, bear in mind that the margin of error is much, much larger for sub-samples than for full-scale Scottish polls and that may account for much of the seemingly bizarre fluctuations. It's a particular problem with ComRes, who typically have a Scottish sample of just 60 or so - in the latest poll the figure is 56.


  1. You are good James. I looked at the stats earlier and couldn't make head or tail of them. Then again I'm not a statistician.

    Disappointing right enough, let's wait until the next one.

  2. The results are very bad news for Labour, even if the sub poll is correct for the SNP then we would at least gained 8% from the 2005 election and might win around ten seats...

    However the poll is a little sus, the concervitives on 9% ? Hmm ..