REVEALED: The hard science that makes Both Votes SNP such an effective strategy - why the "Make Mine A Double" voting craze is mathematically sound as well as fashionable and trendy

OK, the title of this blogpost is mainly there to wind up Stew, but there is actually a very serious point behind it, and it's one that may make you think about the importance of voting SNP on the list ballot in a wholly new way.  Patrick English, who seems to have been the key figure behind YouGov's new MRP poll for the Holyrood, posted a thread on Twitter about the poll with some observations that I found genuinely startling - 

"Scotland is never an easy place in which to project elections, but we've given it a go.

Based on the data, our central expectation is that the SNP would win an outright majority if the election were happening right now

They do so in our model by hoovering up all but seven of Holyrood's 73 constituencies, plus a regional list seat in the Highland and Islands.

Such is the extent of the SNP constituency sweep, our central projection has Labour winning zero constituencies for the first time ever.

Each of Labour's 15 seats come from the lists.

Similarly, while we currently have Reform in second place, all their 20 projected wins are also list seats.

The Greens however we think have a good shot at winning their first ever Holyrood constituency (either Glasgow/Edinburgh).

Our model is, as it stands, pretty bullish on an SNP majority despite them only being two seats above the line (65).

The reason why is that even if the SNP start losing constituency seats, in many such scenarios they start winning extra regional list seats to compensate.

For example, let's imagine that Labour benefited from a big push of tactical Unionist support in Central and took three seats off the SNP there.

Unless the SNP also started dropping list votes, they'd win one regional seat to take them back up to 65!

Similarly, let's say the SNP lost Moray in the Highlands and Islands to Reform, who are currently second placed there.

The SNP would immediately then win a list seat in that region to compensate for that loss.

Another reason for model bullishness is the fragmentation of the pro-Union constituency vote behind the SNP, plus the boost they get from the Greens stepping aside in all but six seats.

Projected SNP majorities range from 7pts in Dumfriesshire to 27pts in Coatbridge and Chryston

These SNP cushions, plus the projected strong performance of the Greens, make it very difficult to see anything other than yet another SNP-led administration after May 7th *as things stand*.

As for securing official opposition status, it's a battle between Reform and Labour."

Remember that he's saying all of this about a state of play in which it's assumed that the SNP will be taking just 32% of the list vote nationally - way down on what they have received in all of the last three Holyrood elections.  I wouldn't previously have thought that a 32% list vote could have much role to play in getting the SNP over the line for a majority in a situation where they fall a little short of 65 constituency seats, but this guy has run all of the simulations and he's clearly saying that it very well could.  Even on the central projection from the poll, the SNP would take one list seat in the Highlands & Islands, but it sounds very much like a list vote for the SNP will play a crucial back-up role in other regions by compensating the SNP if they fail to take as many constituency seats as they hope.

As 32% of the national list vote is a perfectly achievable target, this should really be enough to convince SNP supporters to back the party on both ballots.  Clearly much of the commentary so far (including from the former YouGov president Peter Kellner in the bizarre article that was picked up by Lesley Riddoch recently) has severely underestimated the SNP's chances of taking seats on the list.  Perhaps for independence supporters who don't identify strongly with any particular political party, there may still be a difficult choice to make between the SNP and the Greens on the list, because clearly the Greens are capable of winning list seats too, and may win more than the SNP do.  But for anyone weighing up whether to vote for the SNP on the list, or for one of the wide array of pro-indy fringe parties like Atlas or ISP, there's strictly no contest - the SNP have a chance of taking seats on the list, and the fringe parties have no chance whatsoever.  That decision is an absolute no-brainer.

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You can read my constituency profile of Glasgow Easterhouse & Springburn for The National HERE.  That's another Glasgow constituency that I can claim a tenuous connection to, in the sense that I was born there (at Stobhill Hospital in Springburn).

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