Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (-)
No 53% (-)
Regular readers will instantly spot an obvious inconsistency here: the percentage changes in brackets (ie. showing no change at all) do not tally up with what we thought we knew about the most recent full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov, which showed Yes 49%, No 51%. That's because for at least the third time in the last year, we've just discovered that YouGov conducted a secret poll a few weeks ago, didn't publish the results, and are now expecting us to just accept that the percentage changes in the poll they've actually bothered to publish are whatever they tell us they are.
Not to put too fine a point on it: what the hell are they playing at? I'm not convinced that this behaviour is consistent with British Polling Council disclosure rules. At the very least they must be straying into a grey area, and they're undoubtedly treating the nation of Scotland with utter contempt. Everyone knows they wouldn't decide what to reveal and what not to reveal about GB-wide polls on a whim, as they seem to be regularly doing with their Scottish polls.
This revelation of course means that there was an additional independence poll in 2025 that we were previously unaware of. I don't think this will alter the fact that there was a Yes majority in an average of all polls conducted in 2025, but I'll doublecheck to be sure and let you know in the video.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34%
Reform UK 20%
Labour 15%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 9%
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 29%
Reform UK 20%
Labour 15%
Greens 12%
Conservatives 11%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Alba 1%
This is light-years short of the percentages the SNP would require to hit John Swinney's self-imposed target of a single-party overall SNP majority, but it's plenty enough for a pro-independence majority of seats comprised of the SNP and Greens in combination. So the SNP leadership are in the enviable position of to some extent being able to simply decide whether they succeed or fail in this election. If they stick to the Hail Mary single-party majority strategy, they will almost certainly fail and set the independence cause back several years. But if they adjust their language to make clear that a pro-indy majority composed of more than one party would constitute a mandate, they will probably succeed.
It goes without saying that this is yet another polling catastrophe for Alba, who would need to multiply their current support by five, six, seven or eight times to win any seats. Spoiler alert: they're not going to do that.
More details about this poll will follow later in the video.
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An observation.
ReplyDeleteThere are 129MSPs in Holyrood. The SNP need 65 MSPs to get the Swinney majority. If the SNP Regional list figure of 29% is the most important figure, as some believe, and if it is this vote that makes the outcome near to proportional representation then that means the SNP will only have around 37MSPs. Well short of the Swinney majority by 28 MSPs.
Anyone else think Swinney is just playing games about getting an SNP majority. Even if he did, is he going to say pretty please can I have a referendum sir.
It's not impossible, of course, for the SNP to get a majority but the system would have to operate more as a first past the post system than proportional representation system. There are 73 constituency MSPs and the SNP would need to win nearly all of their 65 MSPs from this category. Not impossible in a multi party fptp vote.
If Swinney got a majority and did nothing about independence would that lift the scales from the eyes of the numpty SNP membership and they would finally get a proper independence leadership? This is deja vu. In 2021 I voted SNP hoping they would get a majority for independence in Holyrood. I hoped when they saw that Sturgeon did nothing about independence they would get rid of her and install a proper independence leader. Here we are 5 years on in a similar quandry but the SNP lower in the polls ( I did forecast this would happen if they stuck with Sturgeon's gang). All thanks to the numpty SNP members. They don't like me telling the truth about them.
Another observation.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how the Greens get a free pass for standing on the constituency. Very little criticism. They are on 9% of the vote. They will, in all likelihood, not win a seat in the constituency category but they may deprive the SNP of its overall majority by standing candidates in the constituency. Are these parties truly interested in independence or just their own party?
Independence should NOT be a party political issue. It is way above that.
How many constituencies are the Scots Greens likely to stand in? I am hoping that it’s only a handful (?), but really I’ve no idea.
ReplyDeleteIn seats where they don’t stand SNP should have a nice near-monopoly on Yes voters. More MSPs at constituency-level are vital for the Swinney plan to have even a fighter’s chance of success.
Only half joking: we don’t want to count Scots Greens MSPs to any tally since they are so off the wall on non-Indy matters and frequently startlingly incompetent & naive.
Edit to the above: we basically need almost a clean sweep of constituencies to cross the majority line.
The priority at this HR election should be to ensure a Scotland only and not Westminster governed party keep hold of Holyrood. Alba don't have the numbers to do that, Liberate Scotland don't. Refusal to see that bigger picture and enable the SNP to get a majority - which would help the other indy parties as there's no doubt Swinney aims to change the SNP entirely for the better if they get a majority with new blood etc - then we're going to end up with the scenario Paul Hutcheon is highlighting. How the unionist parties, as they are already discussing (and which some alleged influencer independistas have already been participating in) how to weaken the SNP - and how to club together to not vote in an SNP First Minister. And they can do this as Hutcheon explains - they can club together and vote for Anas Sarwar as First Minister. Jim Sillars seemed to imply he was in these discussions a few months ago. SNP members are not your problem. Your own independence movement chums are more willing to damage the SNP and have a unionist party take Holyrood than shift a finger to assist the SNP. When the chips are down - it's all about auld grudges, jealousies, auld bods wanting to maintain the reputation of their past perceived glory days with Salmond, and stopping anybody else achieving anything positive which would lessen their control over and getting adulation from an activist movement. Besides, most of these 'my past matters more than your future' movement bods are still Labour at heart.
ReplyDeleteFacts
ReplyDeleteSwinney references the 2011 Holyrood election as his precedent for an independence referendum.
So let's look at the actual result.
53 Constituency on 45.4% of the vote.
16 Regional list on 44% of the vote.
A total of 69MSPs.
Compare that with the poll figures - 34% and 29%. Who wants to bet on an SNP majority? My bet is Swinney is betting on a failure to get the majority so he can say Scots are not ready for independence.
The 2011 percentage vote on the constituency is almost the same as the regional list. The standout figure is 16 SNP MSPs on the regional list.
Will both votes SNP deliver an SNP majority in May. It didn't in 2021 when the SNP was a lot higher in the pols. So I won't be betting on 2026 delivering an SNP majority. I would love that to be the case to see Swinney squirm away as he tries to think up his secret plan.