Why the SNP are unlikely to go back into coalition with the Greens (or the Lib Dems) after May

I'm not sure if I believe in the theory that people inevitably become more right-wing as they get older - probably some people do and others don't.  But Iain Macwhirter certainly seems to be a strong example of the phenomenon - it's hard to imagine the Macwhirter of twenty or thirty years ago writing the type of columns he does today.  In his latest piece for the Sunday Times, he's trying to whip up fear about a potential return of the Greens to government after the May election, which he says is likely because if the SNP don't agree to a return to coalition, the Greens may well retaliate by installing a Labour-led government, even if the SNP remain the largest party.

I don't buy that.  It's not that I can't imagine the Greens doing a deal with Labour, it's just that I can't imagine them doing it in the probable circumstances where the only viable Labour-led government is one that is propped up by Reform UK.  People say that Anas Sarwar wouldn't need to form a coalition with Reform in order to become First Minister, he'd only need Reform support on a single vote.  That's true, but becoming First Minister is a bit pointless (other than holding the title for two weeks so he can put "Former First Minister of Scotland" on his CV) unless he can sustain a government in office, and he probably won't be able to do that without ongoing Reform support.  It doesn't really matter whether that support is secured via a long-term deal or on a vote-by-vote basis - I just cannot imagine radical left figures like Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay being party to such an arrangement.  And if anyone on the unionist side is harbouring any fond thoughts of Sarwar getting into office with Reform and Green votes and then staying in power by doing side-deals with the SNP, they can forget it.  If the SNP are the largest party and are frozen out of power, they'll have just one over-riding priority - to bring Sarwar down and to form a government themselves.

So no, I don't believe John Swinney will have to make a straight choice between coalition with the Greens and a return to opposition.  And that's likely to mean that the SNP will, with the bruising experience of the Bute House Agreement fresh in their minds, prefer to remain a minority government.  Some people claim that what Mr Swinney would actually prefer is a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but I can't really see any such arrangement being successfully sold to SNP members immediately after an election that was fought on the number one issue of Scotland's right to choose independence - a principle that the Lib Dems categorically and contemptuously reject.

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