Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / The National):
Yes 52% (-4)
No 48% (+4)
There's no cause for alarm in the apparent swing to No, because the previous poll was insanely good for Yes and that may have just been caused (at least in part) by margin of error noise, ie. the new poll may just be a reversion to the mean. The low 50s has been the most typical Yes vote share from Find Out Now, who over the years have shown a pro-independence majority in all but one of the independence polls they've ever conducted. So yes, it's time to sound that SETTLED WILL KLAXON once again.
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"ie. the new poll may just be a reversion to the mean. "
ReplyDeleteI'm going to suggest it's just gone the other way, and that the average of 54% is the actual mean - or midpoint!
Politics works through political parties, including on constitutional matters.
ReplyDeleteWhat’s your take on Sultana Party implosion likely impact on SNP and Scots Labour? I think: positive for both, perhaps also for Scots Greens although I can never make that lot out as they just seem so oddball to me I can’t see why anyone would even consider voting for them.
A nice raisin for SNP to advance would help Yes greatly, assuming the disillusioned Lefties some over to the party.
YouGov, Westminster voting intention, field work 22nd Sept.
ReplyDeleteUK headline: RefUK 9% lead, a new high for YouGov.
Scottish sub-sample (150)
Con 10%, Lab 13%, LibDem 11%, SNP 34%, RefUK 24%, Green 6%.
A pretty low YouGov result for Labour in Scotland.