Saturday, September 6, 2025

What makes the current Swinney 'independence plan' so dangerous: for the first time ever, the SNP would be seeking votes in a way that would benefit the party but harm independence. That decoupling of the SNP's interests from the cause of independence must simply never happen.

In today's YouTube commentary, I respond to an email I received a couple of days ago asking for my opinion about two completely separate proposals that have been sent to the First Minister John Swinney.  The first is about reform of the Holyrood voting system, abolishing what is described as the "constituency penalty" which awards less value to list votes for a party that has already won a lot of seats on the constituency ballot.  The second is about a change to Mr Swinney's plan for winning independence, and suggests quite an imaginative way forward after an SNP victory in next year's election.  Basically a motion would be presented to parliament demanding that Westminster pass a Section 30 order permanently transferring the power to call an independence referendum to Holyrood, but also stipulating that if the demand is not met, there would be an early dissolution and a snap election would be held as a de facto referendum on the country's constitutional future.

In the video I explain why I agree with the second proposal (with caveats) but not with the first, which would inadvertently abolish proportional representation for the Scottish Parliament and leave us with a majoritarian voting system that is almost as bad as unalloyed first-past-the-post.  I also try to find the nub of what makes Mr Swinney's independence plan as it stands so harmful, and it's this: until now, what is good for the SNP electorally and what is good for the cause for independence has always been inseparable.  If you help the SNP do well in an election, you're pretty much automatically boosting independence.  But for the first time, the Swinney plan would create a situation where the SNP would be seeking votes in a way that would genuinely benefit the party while simultaneously harming the cause of independence.  That would be a very dangerous decoupling which must never be allowed to happen, and that's why the Swinney plan must at the very least be modified at conference.  Power for the SNP is not an end in itself - the SNP must always remain a vehicle for independence or else the whole endeavour becomes pointless.  An empty shell.

You can watch the video via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link.

5 comments:

  1. This nonsense idea that the list vote in some way disadvantages Independence because of the disproportionate number of Unionist MSPs elected has only gained hold since 2011 when the SNP started to dominate the regional ballots garnered.

    Prior to that the list vote disproportionately helped the Independence parties in the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections.

    In fact taking both constituency and list votes together and comparing to the total seats obtained the Independence parties cumulatively, with the exception of 199, have obtained more seats than votes. This is particularly the case since 2011: Votes and seats were 48% and 56%, 48% and 54%, and 49% and 56% in 2011, 2016 and 2021, respectively.

    The AMS is designed to offset the bias of the constituency vote … and it does a pretty good job of doing just that. It’s a corrective mechanism.

    But why would you want to move to a FPTP system anyway? Isn’t the Westminster system something that we are trying to get away from.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The SNP should stop faffing about and call the 2026 election as a de facto referendum right now.

    ReplyDelete
  3. For the first time ever, I just don't know who to vote for in 2026. The SNP aren't serious about independence, still too distracted by identity guff and still too full of lightweights. Meanwhile Alba are a bunch of ferrets in a sack while the Greens are just weird.

    Won't vote unionists as I wouldn't want my vote to be interpreted as anti-independence.

    Perhaps the new Corbyn party will be an option if they take a democratic stance on Scottish independence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't be stupid - the Corbyn party is a British party.

      Delete
  4. So what you are really saying is that once again SNP is putting PARTY before COUNTRY.. Like they have done since 2015.. For many of us we knew back in 2015 that the SNP was no longer a party of Independence. How come this is coming as a shock to you James..

    ReplyDelete