Rayner is OUT as Deputy PM - but nature abhors a vacuum, and it's likely that an alternative soft left champion would emerge in any early leadership election

Angela Rayner has just resigned as Deputy Prime Minister, although I can't see from the initial reporting whether she has also resigned as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party (an elected rather than appointed position, of course).  The latter point could be crucial in terms of her long-term political future, although if a vacancy for the leadership were to come up in the next few months, her goose would still be pretty cooked.

Understandably, punters think her chances of replacing Starmer have just fallen off a cliff.  She had been favourite for a time, but these are the latest odds - 

Wes Streeting 6.8

Andy Burnham 8.4

Yvette Cooper 15

Darren Jones 19.5

Angela Rayner 22

Bridget Phillipson 25

Rachel Reeves 30

Ed Miliband 34

Some people will assume that Wes Streeting's chances have strengthened dramatically, but you have to look at this from the point of view of those who will ultimately make the decision - ie. Labour party members.  In this particular scenario, they are not likely to conclude that the problem is that the current leadership is not sufficiently right-wing, because Starmer has pushed the party as far to the right as it has ever been (including in the Blair years).  They are much more likely to be looking for a soft left corrective, and if Rayner can no longer provide that, they'll try to seek out an alternative champion.  Andy Burnham is the person who would most obviously fit the bill - but just one snag, he's not actually eligible because he's not an MP.  That can theoretically be overcome but not easily.

So I think the person whose chances have just improved dramatically is Ed Miliband.  That may not be showing up in the odds yet, but I think the logic for it is sound.

Neale, in all seriousness, if you honestly think the Alba Party through its appalling behaviour has not abandoned its founding principles, then I can't even imagine what you think those principles actually were, but they certainly can't have been worth having. https://t.co/QZbPaId2kT

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 5, 2025