These numbers initially seemed so wild that I had to double-check they weren't an April Fool, but someone from More In Common posted them on Twitter this morning (ie. as opposed to yesterday) so they do appear to be absolutely real.
GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 28th-31st March 2025):
Conservatives 26% (+1)
Reform UK 25% (+1)
Labour 21% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
Greens 7% (-3)
SNP 2% (-1)
Reform UK 25% (+1)
Labour 21% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
Greens 7% (-3)
SNP 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
21% is a new post-election low for Labour, not only with More In Common but across all polling firms. What makes it so startling is that the previous low of 22% was only ever recorded by Find Out Now - no other firm has shown a figure lower than 23% until now, so for More In Common to suddenly show 21% gives the impression of Labour falling through the floor.
Other firms have reported that Labour's position has stabilised very recently, albeit at an extremely low level. The new Opinium poll at the weekend had Labour unchanged at 26% - but the snag is that the 26% in the previous poll was a post-election low with Opinium. The new YouGov poll has Labour slightly recovering from a post-election low of 23% to get back to 24%, but that just looks like margin of error noise.
And before KC and his chums get excited, margin of error noise is almost certainly the explanation for the SNP's dip in the More In Common poll. The Scottish subsample size is tiny.
*. *. *
Is this an April Fools Day joke from someone who literally films a weekly TV programme from his own living room? pic.twitter.com/6VGubYzC4e
— Heather McLean (@HeatherMc1960) April 1, 2025
My own question to Zulfs (a national treasure if ever there was one): if we're in our "living rooms", but you "see us", and "others can also see us", does that mean you've *installed spy cameras in our living rooms*? Shocking behaviour. Shannon will have to call the fire brigade on you.
NEW: Scottish Green MSP Patrick Harvie has announced that he will not stand in the Party’s upcoming leadership election. The contest, set to take place this summer, is open to all party members.
ReplyDeleteIt's Ross Greer's time to shine!
DeleteHope so. He's a smart young lad.
DeleteGreer is obviously totally unsuitable, but realistically they're likely to go for an MSP, so that means either Greer or Mark Ruskell. So it may well be Greer.
DeleteI love that in the info box on Mark Ruskell's Wikipedia entry, it gives his spouse's name as "Mrs Ruskell".
DeleteEXCLUSIVE: Two Scottish Green MSPs are plotting a joint ticket to oust one of their co-leaders, after Patrick Harvie announced he was stepping down.
DeleteA Scottish Green insider said: "Ross and Gillian have a kind of agreement about running together"
FFs I was just joking when I said it was Ross Greer's time to shine!
Greer/Mackay would be a grim joint ticket, but at least it would free them from Lorna Slater.
DeleteThe Greens haven't been sensibly green for a long time, side-tracked by genetic issues which has absolutely nothing to do with the environment or ecology, and trying to beat Westminster by a year costing us hundreds of millions. Time for a complete overhaul and brand new leadership. And that doesn't mean Greer.
DeleteAnd yeah, for leadership hustings ask the candidates to define "ecology", because the current lot are clueless.
Alba: Our Party is a right old mess.
DeleteGreens: Hold my beer!
Beer? Oh ginger beer.
DeleteI'll get ma coat.
The Greens will give the SNP bad ideas.
DeleteWho’s even more unsuitable than Humza to take over when Swinney calls it a day? Someone young, irritating to the voters, and deeply ideological? Oh, and it helps if they don’t give a toss for independence. They’ll have to be “intensely relaxed” with their partners in Labour, after all.
He's a smart young lad.
DeleteHe's 30
Which if my mental arithmetic is correct means that some idiot thought it was a great idea to put him in charge of the 2014 Yes campaign when he was just 19 years old. The thirtysomething Greer is bad enough.
Delete"He's 30"
DeleteGoing on 13.
I propose Ash Regan or Taz - I’m sure that’s 1 party they haven’t been in.
ReplyDeleteFor the most transcult captured party of all, it is a bit unseemly the Greens have gender-segregated “co-leaders.” Could a trans candidate occupy both positions and reign as the single leader?
DeleteAsh Regan has been in two parties the same number as Alex Salmond, Kenny MacAskill and most of the Alba membership. And the writer of this blog. Just another ridiculous anti-Ash smear which if you thought about it for two minutes you wouldn’t have posted.
DeleteWhy? She can jump ship once, she can jump twice.
DeleteI mean Ash resigned from one Party after losing a leadership bid and it's looking likely she's going to resign from another after losing a leadership bid. Starting to see a pattern.
DeleteAsh could work. I’d put a tick in her box.
DeleteYou can buy a powder for that sort of thing!!!
DeleteIt’s reassuring to know the SNPs apparent dip is probably down to margin for error, with the Scottish sub sample being so small.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside James, I assume you’re going to cover the recent Survation poll on independence at some point when you get the chance?
Hi, KC. If you were the one who posted this supposed "Survation poll" yesterday, you'll have seen that I immediately asked you for a link because I couldn't find it anywhere. You didn't reply. If the poll exists, provide a link.
DeleteI’m afraid you’ve got this wrong James, the post in question yesterday was nothing to do with me!
DeleteIf you can’t find the “poll”, I suspect it was some smart arse playing an April Fool. I can assure you it wasn’t me though.
Hope this helps.
Scotland’s pro-independence warriors are shifting on nuclear weapons … slowly.
ReplyDelete“We’ve had disgraceful positions on defense in the past,” said a SNP official, referring in particular to future SNP leader and first minister Alex Salmond’s opposition to the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999.
“This would have been a scandal and sparked a civil war five years ago. But there’s far more maturity in the SNP on defense now … we won’t be using ['bairns, not bombs'] on leaflets now,” they added.
To be mature you have to favour bombs over bairns, presumably. Peak maturity is using the bombs *on* bairns.
DeleteNuclear weapons only 30 miles from our largest city? If you're happy with that join the unionists.
DeleteThe thing about the Bute House Agreement was, that it was agreed that the Leaders of the parties would get a vote each, but if it was a tie, then the SNP leader would get the casting vote.
ReplyDeleteThen up spake Harvie and said "We have two leaders ...".
If Greer wins a leadership election the BBC and MSM will dredge up events from some time ago that will shatter any smidgeon of credibility he currently has.
ReplyDeleteHe has credibility atm!?
Delete