As you may have seen, LabourList have been revealing the results of a poll they commissioned Survation to run among actual paid-up members of the Labour party. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of Labour ministers have a positive net rating among Labour members, but what leaps out as astounding is that among the minority who have negative ratings just happen to be the party leader and his three key lieutenants who are driving the party's right-wing direction.
Net ratings of Labour ministers among Labour party members (Survation / LabourList):
Ed Miliband: +65
Angela Rayner: +46
Hilary Benn: +31
Lisa Nandy: +29
Yvette Cooper: +25
John Healey: +24
Bridget Phillipson: +23
Heidi Alexander: +19
Shabana Mahmood: +16
Jonathan Reynolds: +14
Peter Kyle: +13
Darren Jones: +11
Jo Stevens: +8
Lucy Powell: +8
David Lammy: +5
Angela Smith: +5
Ian Murray: +3
Pat McFadden: +3
Jenny Chapman: +3
Alan Campbell: +3
Steve Reed: +2
Wes Streeting: -2
Simon Hermer: -3
Keir Starmer: -13
Liz Kendall: -33
Rachel Reeves: -41
Now, I don't want to make sweeping statements about something I've only looked at very superficially, but on the face of it, there does seem to me to be an issue with this poll's methodology. The numbers seem to be weighted to the results of the 2020 leadership election, which I'd have thought must mean that Rebecca Long-Bailey's voters are significantly over-represented, because since 2020 the composition of the Labour membership has fundamentally changed, becoming much less Corbynite and much more Starmerite. However, the data tables show that even among Labour members who actually voted for Starmer in 2020, Liz Kendall and Rachel Reeves have negative ratings (-12 and -21 respectively).
Although Ian Murray just barely has a positive rating among all respondents, an exceptionally high 48% don't have an opinion about him at all, which probably means that they barely even know who he is. That speaks volumes about what a low priority Scotland is for both the Labour party and the Labour government. Among the others who only just eek out a positive rating, it's heartening to see that the awful David Lammy is not particularly well-regarded these days. But the ongoing popularity of Lisa Nandy among Labour members is both inexplicable and depressing.
Here's the weird thing: the net ratings above have very little correlation with the betting odds on who will be the next Labour leader. On the exchanges, Ed Miliband is priced at 100, which must surely be value - I understand the theory that he's already failed once as leader, but as the members will make the decision, and as they seem to adore him, and as he apparently may still be interested in the job...well, work it out for yourself. He must have a higher than 1% chance. Hilary Benn's excessive odds also look like value - he's probably being discounted because he's in his early 70s, but he's several years younger than Donald Trump and might look attractive as a caretaker Prime Minister in some circumstances. And although punters are taking Angela Rayner's chances a bit more seriously, her odds of 15 probably still represent value.
Prime Minister Rayner welcoming President Vance outside 10 Downing Street. Isn't that what the end of the world looks like?
ReplyDeleteNice try, but your final sentence is the only accurate one.
ReplyDeleteLmao. Troll post deleted before I'd even finished my reply
DeleteSheikh Yerbouti.
ReplyDeleteIt is a matter of great regret to all of us in the Alba Party that Chris McEleny has chosen to personalise this.
ReplyDeleteI prompted Betfair Exchange to include Ed M as a betting option, simply so I could bet against him ("lay bet"). Which I promptly have done. Not betting advice etc., just my opinion - which is that he would likely be such a staggeringly awful choice for next Leader that I just can't bring myself to believe Labour would collectively do so. But perhaps I am just blinkered. I they do pick him, losing me quite a few £ in the process, then I predict it will do them even more long-term damage electorally. Tell me again, how much of a force the French Socialists are these days?
ReplyDeleteWell, it depends how you're defining the French Socialists - the broader left certainly did well enough in the parliamentary elections.
DeleteIt's your money, but I cannot believe you've laid Ed Miliband at those odds. Your money will be tied up for ages (unless you cash out at a loss), your profit margin will be tiny if you win, and you might well lose. The value undoubtedly lies in the opposite direction.
I prompted Betfair Exchange to include Ed M as a betting option, simply so I could bet against him ("lay bet"). Which I promptly have done.
DeleteWhy now? You expect his odds to get even longer? It's hard to see why that would happen until actual candidates are announced for a leadership election (unless he dies or something)
Poll after poll shows that Chris McEleny is a mad dog 🐕 who needs to be tamed.
ReplyDeleteYes, but what about ME?
DeleteOh, BTW, I do agree with you James that Rayner is a value bet at 15:1, DYOR & GLA everyone!
ReplyDeleteBig brave USA put 40% taxes on some of the poorest nations on the earth. Russia is missed out. The alleged information held about Trump by Putin must be interesting.
ReplyDeleteThe dreadful Basher Nandy's popularity says a lot about the type of person who is a Labour Party member these days.
ReplyDeleteWhat’s the big deal about Lisa Nandy?
DeleteShe advocates the violent suppression of Indy supporters in Scotland. Equally amazing is that some Labour Party members claim she didn’t call for it. Dishonest and delusional.,
DeleteNandy was in full support of Spain's paramilitary police baton-charging and hospitalising Catalan voters during the independence referendum which Madrid deemed illegal.
DeleteMhairi Black
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/apr/03/mhairi-black-being-me-again-review-the-former-mp-is-a-force-of-nature-in-this-excellent-documentary
Grok, what is the MBTI type of Shannon Donoghue of the Alba Party?
ReplyDelete"There is insufficient public information available to definitively determine the MBTI type of Shannon Donoghue, a figure associated with the Alba Party. MBTI typing requires detailed insights into an individual’s behavior, decision-making processes, and interpersonal interactions, ideally through self-reporting or extensive observation—none of which is adequately provided in accessible sources about her.
However, I can offer a speculative analysis based on limited contextual clues from her public political activity, as described in sources like the "SCOT goes POP!" blog, while acknowledging the constraints of this approach.
Shannon Donoghue is portrayed as a prominent and assertive member of the Alba Party, known for her confrontational style and tendency to make bold, direct statements on social media. For instance, her interactions are characterized as lacking subtlety, with a pattern of publicly challenging others in ways that suggest confidence and a desire for control within her political sphere.
This is evident in her reported threats and demands, such as insisting that others "cease" their behavior, which imply a strong-willed, decisive personality. Additionally, her role within the party leadership faction suggests she thrives in structured environments where she can exert influence, potentially indicating a preference for organization and authority.
These traits align most closely with the ENTJ (Extraverted, Intuitive, Thinking, Judging) MBTI type, often described as "The Commander." ENTJs are typically outgoing, strategic, and assertive, with a natural inclination to lead and impose their vision on others. They are known for their directness, preference for control, and ability to navigate complex social or political dynamics—qualities that could reflect Donoghue’s reported behavior. Her public attacks and lack of subtlety might suggest extraversion and a thinking preference over feeling, as she appears to prioritize logic and objectives (e.g., party loyalty or power dynamics) over emotional diplomacy. The judging aspect fits her apparent need for resolution and structure, as seen in her attempts to dictate terms to others.
However, this is a hypothesis, not a conclusion. Alternative types like ESTJ ("The Executive") could also fit, given her engagement in party governance and enforcement of rules, though the intuitive (N) over sensing (S) preference in ENTJ better captures the strategic maneuvering implied by her leadership role. Without direct statements from Donoghue about her thought processes or personal tendencies, and lacking detailed biographical data, this remains an educated guess based on sparse evidence. MBTI is also a self-reported framework, and external analysis alone cannot confirm a type with certainty.
In summary, based on the limited available evidence, Shannon Donoghue’s MBTI type is most likely to be ENTJ, reflecting her assertive, controlling, and strategic demeanor in the political context. This assessment is tentative and could shift with more comprehensive information."
I think of her more as "the Kommandant" than "the Commander".
DeleteLet's face it, she's either Herr Flick or Helga, but WHICH ONE?
DeleteA I drivel. She’s a mouthy stupid arsehole with a drink problem.
DeleteI didn’t realise about Lisa Nandy’s comments, awful. Thanks for educating me on them.
ReplyDeleteEverything you hear about Nandy is true, at one point she was demanding the British army be sent in to discipline Scotland and arrest the politicians we vote for if they support independence for Scotland
ReplyDeleteIn recent memory they were sent to discipline the Irish, except they called them the Micks and Paddies out loud at that time
We're the Jocks and the Sweaties in Scotland
Yes. Nandy puts on the caring face whenever she's put in front of a camera but she's as nasty a piece of work as Reeves, Streeting, Kendal and Sir Starmer. That's how low Labour have sunk.
DeleteI am anon at 8.22. She made the comments openly and they were reported on at the time. Funnily enough the BBC and MSM didn’t report negatively on her comments. She could easily instigate direct action. Nasty untrustworthy woman.
DeleteI remember Nandy quite proudly and defiantly advocating that the British use the same methods of voter suppression in Scotland as the Spanish had in Catalonia. I'd never heard of her before and presumed she was a Tory. I was right but thought she was I the Conservative rather than Labour brand.
DeleteAnother indication that an SNP or SNP + majority should be attainable next year. While, from an independence point of view, that is nothing to get over excited about it is certainly better than any available, electoral alternative.
ReplyDeleteBuilding the SNP vote has to be done but, done on it's own, will be a dead end as Trump's tariffs, Putin's war, neolib economics etc etc mean that Holyrood's ability even to soften coming blows will be more limited and under increasing attack from Westminster.
The 'second front' of changing the SNP into a viable vehicle for independence has to run simultaneously. Fighting within the party for the accountability of elected representatives at all levels can be done during candidate selections.
We may make progress. If not it will at least be clear that troughing and careerism have put the party beyond use as a vehicle for our national self determination.
All of this has been said before but now is the time to attend the meetings, challenge the nominations, differentiate between candidates and try once more.
"If not it will at least be clear that troughing and careerism have put the party beyond use as a vehicle for our national self determination."
DeleteIssue is though many are already at that point and believe that to be the case. How do you convince them otherwise?
I take your point. Frankly I think that the prospects are poor. The argument that I presently use is that all other options are so much worse and this way at least offers a chance of progress however small.
DeleteI suppose after 51 years of activism I've come to expect crap as the main output of 'professional' politicians. Its a lot harder I suppose for those who have never seen entrenched self interest and careerism up close before.
Not a great answer but the best I can offer - thanks for asking the question.
Another anon here, Alt Clut. I’m the one who's often telling you you're doing the right thing, because I really think you are. (I’m wary of taking the same approach myself, though, thanks to living in Edinburgh West of all dead end prospects.)
DeleteTo address 10:04's fair question: the only way to convince folk is by trying and doing. It's time to ruffle some well preened feathers in the party and to give the displaced careerists a hard time settling into their latest nests. The failed WM faces we all know too well are just the kind of entitled, unselfconscious egos who will moan all over the National and the other papers if they feel they're not being shown all due respect from us rabble, down at the bottom of the movement. They'll kick up a excruciating fuss, each one of them, if there's more resistance to their entitlement than they reckoned for. Word will spread around. It'll open eyes and do us all a lot of good, like sunshine at the end of winter.
So aye, I think there's a path. With work, the membership can take the party back from the cynics at the top. It needs a lot of shoulders to the wheel, though! But when people see someone doing the right thing, we're Scots, so we go out of our way to help out.
Wow, get this from the BBC just now: "Yoon says he is 'truly sorry'
ReplyDeletepublished at 06:09
06:09
BREAKING
We've just heard from Yoon - it's his first remarks since the verdict was announced."
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5yrpvggyyet
RefUK friendly polling outfit Find Out Now have Farage’s latest vehicle with record equaling 6% lead and Labour at a record breaking low of 22%.
ReplyDeleteTiny Scottish sub-sample (120) is not particularly promising for RefUK. SNP + Greens have a pretty healthy 45%.