Alba leadership result:
Kenny MacAskill 52%
Ash Regan 48%
I'll be honest and say I'm very surprised - I had thought the Salmond family's backing for MacAskill would make the result a foregone conclusion, but it's clear this was a very competitive race that could have gone either way. That explains the signs of stress and arguably panic exhibited by the MacAskill camp at times. Part of the explanation may be that Ash Regan simply looked the part during the hustings in a way that MacAskill didn't.
This is exactly the same margin that Humza Yousaf defeated Kate Forbes by, and we know that wasn't a recipe for reconciliation. Part of the reason was that Humza was very poorly advised and acted as if the narrowness of the margin didn't matter and as if the Forbes camp could be safely ignored and marginalised. But if MacAskill avoids that mistake, he'll run into an even bigger danger, because any compromise with Regan will probably entail adopting some of her dodgy Reform-esque ideas and also bringing Chris McEleny back into the fold, both of which would be strategically foolish. So I'm not sure MacAskill can get it right, no matter what he does from here.
I've thought for months that the logic pointing to Alba splitting apart is pretty inexorable. Probably all of the leading figures would say they don't want it to happen, and they might well even mean that, but when the differences are so irreconcilable it may well happen anyway. Question number one: what will MacAskill do with "Mad Dog"? That will tell us quite a lot.
From the rough numbers I'm hearing the turnout was fairly poor - don't take this as gospel but it sounds like it might have been in the region of 50%, which would be a lot worse than the last SNP leadership election. That speaks volumes.
McEleny himself suffered a predictable drubbing in the depute leadership election, but I'm still trying to find the exact figures. Maybe he'll at least have had the consolation of landing on a Primus Number, who knows.
UPDATE: The depute result was...
Neale Hanvey 78%
Chris McEleny 22%
Ouch. And no, 22 isn't even a Primus Number.
R.I.P. Alba Party.
ReplyDeleteMissing you already.
When is the first meeting talking place for your political party. You know the one called The Frankly Book Club.
DeleteAre addressing ALBA or the even worse ISP or something similar
DeleteCan somebody explain what 'ISP' is?
DeleteAnon at 12.31pm - well it's not a book club set up to worship at the feet of a discredited leader.
DeleteIFS is raging lol
DeleteAnon 12.31 " ISP" is a dead loss.
DeleteDeclan turns up to provide a comedy turn just like his forecasts. Your final forecast was the SNP getting more in 2024 than at the previous election where they got 48MPs. They got 9 MPs.
DeleteSkier its like all your posts they are just SNP propaganda posts.
Go on Skier give us a forecast on how many copies Sturgeon will sell of her book. Knowing you it will probably be near 10 million.
You posted for years Sturgeon would deliver Indyref2 and a whole host of other stuff that she didnae deliver. You should be on the comedy circuit as the SNP clown.
Declan, how is the election predicting going lol.
DeleteCome on Declan what’s your forecast for Sturgeon book sales. In these difficult times we need a good laugh.
Delete52-48 for Brexit too of course and that's still rumbling away nine years on. I haven't paid too much attention to the Alba contest as it's about as relevant to the average Scot as a fight between two stray dogs over a discarded kebab but it's clear this result does nothing for party unity or Salmond's legacy.
ReplyDeleteOnly 1/3 turnout according to Wings. Is that right, James? That's a lot of disillusioned Alba members if it is.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the BBC, more than 2500 votes were cast, so that must be more than one-third, because there were fewer than 6000 Alba members at the start of this process. But it's still a very poor turnout.
DeleteAccording to Alba's website these are the breakdown:
DeleteRESULTS BREAKDOWN
Total eligible voters: 5002
Total votes cast: 2543 (50.8%)
Total votes for Kenny MacAskill: 1331 (52.3%)
Total votes for Ash Regan MSP: 1212 (47.7%)
5000 eligible voters? That's a bit much to handle. Let's see if Chris can fix it when he's reappointed to his position as primus consigliere.
DeleteHave to admit that the result surprised me. I thought McAskill would have been an absolute shoo-in.
DeleteIf they used to have 7507 members according to their accounts as rev stu says, then they have lost, suspended or expelled a third of their membership in a short period of time.
DeleteI’m sure Brexit vote was 62% remain? Am I mis remembering?
DeleteAnon 3.25. It was 62% Remain vote in Scotland.
Delete50% for yes in Scotland and we have never been further away from independence due to the political leaders being shit or devolutionists.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Kenny will fix that.
DeleteOr like ifs a numpty helping britnats
DeleteIFS,
Delete“50% for Yes in Scotland “
LOL
You’re obviously one of the few that take Find Out Now polls seriously!
The other pollsters have it frustratingly close, too, KC. Hardly a healthy sign for your colony.
DeleteAnd apathy among so called Indy supporters who do nothing more than whinge on here.
DeleteWhat's the alternative? Both votes SNP and Wheesht for Devo?
DeleteIndependence for Scotland March26 at 11.33 am - imagining that independence is deliberately held back by SNP leaders is unicorn fanciful stuff where you're not looking at the reality of the condition of the entire country in relation to how Scotland's global and UK connections at vital level are currently blown like a ship in a storm at basic level. You completely ignore all of the basic complexities of those legal and contractual ties and how they affect the day to day right down to base level. It doesn't matter who 'the leadership' are - they are forced to work within those complexities which you ignore and no amount of wishing them away gives you any failsafe common sense room for having a referendum right now. You are fools rush in and damn the consequences for the country at large. All this nonsensical huffy puffing that not calling a referendum now is because people are 'devolutionists' and not inclined anymore towards independence is baby nonsense. Without a secure base across the board in the country, a referendum would be catastrophic right now - and you go with the very simplistic narrative because you certainly would not be being held accountable or having to roll your sleeves up and provide any stability where it's required to keep the country up and running every day. You completely underestimate the realities of the condition of the whole of Scotland and its dependences outwith Scotland. Adopting such a simplistic narrative is for unicorns and fantasists.
DeleteAnon at 12.34pm - the so called Indy supporters are the people happy with a book by Sturgeon instead of the promised referendum. The Wheest for the SNP took us to Branchform and the SNP Chief Exec and husband of the party leader being bailed on embezzlement. You were told that a husband and wife should not hold both these positions but the response was the tired old "you are a unionist". Remember Sturgeon told the NEC the accounts were fine. The Police obviously disagree.
DeleteAnon at 12.45 try using a paragraph. Well mr smart arse why did Sturgeon keep promising a referendum from 2016 onwards then if it was impossible? Remember Scotland will not be taken out the EU against its will. Remember 19/10/23 no ifs no buts. Remember the de facto referendum promise. You cannae have it both ways.
DeleteYou are saying Sturgeon and the SNP are charlatans. I agree with you.
So-called Indy supporters. You've just described yourself.
DeleteSo says an unknown random anon at 1.02pm. Who are you then?
DeleteAnon@12:34 And nothing from those so salled indy supporters who do nothing but whinge about those who whinge on here
Delete12:45 More AI tripe?
DeleteA Scottish alliance is coming.
ReplyDeleteBetween Labour and SNP? They'll frame it as "keeping out Farage" rather than Scottish, ofc.
DeleteLabour isn’t Scottish.
DeleteAlba and the ISP !
DeleteAlba are becoming increasingly irrelevant.
ReplyDeleteSurely it’s time for all supporters of independence to get behind the SNP. Get another majority at the HR election and drive support for Indy above 50%, preferably nearer the 60% mark. I believe, with a strong SNP this can be done.
Then what happens?
DeleteThe issue many have with the SNP atm is the vagueness of what the plan to achieve independence actually is. For there ever to be unity of purpose we need specifics.
Hope that things will sort themselves out down the road won't cut it.
Exactly, 11:57. Tell us what you'll do with our mandate, or you're not getting it. We have played this game of blind trust in the SNP enough times already.
DeleteAnons at 1157 and 12.10. You may be right but what are you proposing?
Delete"You may be right but what are you proposing?"
DeleteThat the SNP either make 2026 a de-facto referendum or have a detailed plan in their 2026 manifesto for how they intend to translate another mandate for them into the ultimate goal being achieved.
They're asking for our votes, they should be able to say what they will do with them. Otherwise we might as well be voting Labour to replace the House of Lords.
Nothing. Just wee mr and Mrs angry recognising that their plan to destroy the snp has failed.
DeleteAnon @ 12:19 PM The facts are that support for the SNP in stuck in the 30% range (way down from the 47.7% they achieved in 2021), whereas support for independence is around the 50% mark.
DeleteThe SNP and their supporters need to fact that reality and just demanding that people support the Party won't be enough.
Anon at 12.18. Ta for reply and I agree, but what are we doing to pressure MSP’s and MP’s? More than posting here? If we are not doing more are we maybe part of the problem?
DeleteOh aye, it's definitely the voters that are the problem. Not the careerists with salaries and pensions and comedy careers riding on bugger all being achieved.
Delete/s
Anon at 12.19pm and you are why SNP vote share is way down at the low 30-35%. A long way from the 50% vote share achieved in 2015. That is the real Sturgeon legacy. Frankly I don't think that will be in her book.
DeleteSwinney says nothing is going to happen on independence for the next 6 years. He forgot to add to his statement - 'and then I will retire.' I won't be voting for devolutionist grifters.
Tbh I feel like it's the Party Leadership that are the problem and the motions that were proposed for the recent Constitutional Conference in Perth didn't exactly inspire confidence for meaningful change... and if anything some of them would actually move the Party in the wrong direction if they passed.
DeleteIfS wont be voting for the iSP either - they aren't putting forward any candidates for Holyrood !
DeleteAch, Peter A Bell will sort our indy problems Lol.
DeleteYou feel like it's the SNP leadership and SNP members to blame for everything. For heaven's sake - try looking at the whole country and how it is faring and thinking outwith this tiny little minority yes movement bubble. You need the country to want independence. For meaningful change, the SNP or any Scottish Government need to have loads and loads of dosh and resources - which are just not there. Sustainable always available guaranteed dosh resources to effect change - as any change dominoes into everything else needed day to day. That leeway is not there just sitting available at no massive extra cost to something else. We're on a very fine line as it is and a secure base to enable the risk of big change has to be built up again from the ground.
DeleteAll this talk of internal party this and that - is miniscule stuff. All this dreaming that new leadership in any political party will speed up the road to independence is cart way before rational horses. Meaningful change NEEDS free dosh just sitting there and there isn't any. It doesn't mean leadership or anyone else isn't willing - it means they have the good sense to know what's possible and what isn't rationally possible within the legal and accountability ties of a devolved government - and like it or not, we can think independence - but legally we are still a devolved government - and that is not, as some people say, 'playing Westminster's game'. There is NO game, there is reality.
If the SNP don't get massive support at HR 2026 and keep the SNP in govt, the optic of lack of support for SNP on a huff and unicorn grudge basis merely gives UKplc the ball it desires to play with. UKplc is only interested in weakening or ousting the SNP - as you seem to be on here. Which might give you a temporary gleeful punch in the air at HR 2026 - but the stupidity of not being attentive to the UKplc big picture and this insistence on kicking the SNP is what will really kick the independence can down the road. People need to really be serious, think ahead and really look at the bigger picture. There's no time for grudge huffing and puffing and going around in circles on the things which are not going to matter come HR 2026. It's either Scotland - or UKplc as far as the global and UKplc watchers and opportunists at the gate are concerned - as far as they are concerned, the will always conflate the SNP with Scotland - no other party, no other factions - the SNP. We seriously need an SNP majority government to give that optic to hold UKplc back - but if you don't get that or if you fail to recognise that big picture - then you're not serious and you're not for Scotland as a whole.
Anon at 12.50pm - I have always voted for a party that I believed supported Scottish independence. For a long time that was the SNP including 2021 Constituency vote. I won't be voting SNP in 2026 as long as it looks like the Labour Party hiding under a cloak of tartan. I have been saying to the SNP members since 2020 on SGP they need to change the leadership. If there is no party that I believe is supporting independence available to me I will not vote.
DeleteCorrection anon at 12.59pm
DeleteAnon at 1.05pm - nice to see you have taken my advice about paragraphs. I repeat you are saying it is all hopeless da de da ......
DeleteSo you are saying Sturgeon and the SNP are charlatans to have been promising a referendum since 2016. Or are they just stupid?
The Anon @ 1:05 PM pretty much just proved the Anon @ 12:24 PM's point.
DeleteInstead of facing the reality of the situation and understanding why the SNP doesn't have the same support it used to there's just a demand.
McEleny might take 'Legal Action' against Alba?
ReplyDeleteNeed to buy a new popcorn machine..........😁😁😁
It takes one to know one…
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/25038885.chris-mceleny-vows-legal-action-alba-losing-leader-race/
He can get help from the rev.
ReplyDeleteThe reverend is not interested in any party other than the Conservatives.
DeleteWhen he had his film of his chat with Salmond on the Salmond show thing - didn't Campbell say he was historically always a Lib-Dem? He surely must laugh up his sleeve in the knowledge that Scottish independence supporters fund him and rely on a wee man down in Somerset at the same time as they declare they're Scottish and want Scottish independence - but seem to not manage to work towards it in Scotland but need A.N. Other in Somerset to do whatever it is he does that they seem to need. Bizarre.
DeleteIt's a mess of their own making. Those 100 or so members that HQ were accused of signing up to vote in 2023 have come in handy. The signs of panic in the MacAskill camp were very telling over the past week or so. They thought they had it in the bag. MacAskill has learnt nothing from Salmond's victory in the SNP leadership contest 35 years ago, where he, as part of the Sillars' camp, backed Margaret Ewing. At the time, it was said that he did so, in order to replace her as leader further down the line. With such a slim margin of victory this time, the Salmond bloodline is going to find it harder to put their own candidate (Salmond's niece) in place, once MacAskill takes to the hills.
ReplyDeleteExpensive if you lose.
ReplyDeleteParty? What party? The Farage/Trump arselicking party?
ReplyDeleteCould have been worse, Ash could have won.
ReplyDeleteI’d like to see Ash included in Kenny’s plans. Whatever that is, I’ve no idea, as she can’t be Deputy. Maybe she can replace Tasmina as Chairwoman 😆.
McEleny? Oaf with motives, promoted above his abilities. Good riddance.
I see the Alba Twitter account has posted this: ..Welcome to the new ALBA Party leadership team 🏴
DeleteFrom right to left, ALBA Leader Kenny MacAskill, Holyrood Leader Ash Regan MSP, Depute Leader Neale Hanvey.
They're obviously trying to make it clear that Ash still has a prominent role to play.
It'll keep her employed after she's turfed out from the Scottish Parliament next year.
DeleteMcAskill is the surely 'nothing will change in Alba' leader - which is a pity as the party really needs to be dragged into the present as opposed to languishing in the alleged good old days Mr Salmond's past - where it seems to have chosen to remain with Kenny as leader. He talks about little else than Mr Salmond and Mr Salmond's 'legacy' - a legacy which includes the chaos and factionalism and lack of progress Alba made under Mr Salmond's somewhat chaotic and seeming very personal leadership. Regan would have been the wise choice for the future. McAskill will keep the party, or whatever it is, firmly lodged in and mired in the past and it's very doubtful that depending on that will make Alba more appealing than it already is to voters outwith the 'it's all about Alex' bubble. The country moves on - it doesn't look now as if Alba has any intention of moving on with it.
DeleteAsh 4 Tas as Convener would sound like a positive move.
DeleteTas as charlady ?
DeleteRegan to jump ship ? ISP or NSP ?
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see. She's much more in tune with modern voters and very capable in Holyrood which would have continued to be a positive optic for Alba presenting themselves as a truly now and future serious voter option. She's more appealing across the board and would have wider appeal as an independent if she decides she should leave Alba, which she may not. But I don't see McAskill's old-fashioned mostly middle-aged men and all things Mr Salmond related having that wider appeal to refresh Alba in any truly positive way outwith the Alba bubble concentration - which seems to not be outward looking or forward moving to any great degree. I honestly think Alba under Kenny would be a limiting drag on Regan's true positive potential - if it continues to be so inward and backward looking mired in so many apparent grudge issues and merely devoted to the past and Mr Salmond issues. Nowhere new or ahead for the party to go under Mr McAskill.
DeleteModern voters? Most younger voters don’t agree with the trans stance.
Delete"Alba presenting themselves as a truly now and future serious voter option "
DeleteOh ma sides ! 😂
In global terms... Thumbs up to Peter A Bell, the thinking man's Jamie Lee Curtis.
ReplyDeleteNice...
ReplyDelete