After last week's very poor (and slightly strange) result in Kirkintilloch, the SNP would have been happy to squeeze out any sort of win, and it was therefore fortunate that their next task was to win a ward where they had been completely dominant in 2022. However, in a very technical sense this is a gain from Labour.
Kilmarnock North by-election result on first preferences (20th February 2025):
SNP 35.8% (-11.8)
Labour 27.8% (-0.1)
Independent - Grant 13.2% (+5.1)
Reform UK 10.1% (n/a)
Conservatives 7.6% (-6.2)
Greens 3.6% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 1.8% (n/a)
Independent - McNamara 0.1% (n/a)
Assuming a uniform swing, this result is consistent with a national SNP lead over Labour of just under one percentage point. So once again the SNP have underperformed current opinion polls, but by nowhere near as much as last week.
Reform's performance is solid but lacks the wow factor of some of their more spectacular results recently. They've 'only' caused a near-halving of the Tory vote, in contrast to Kirkintilloch where the Tories lost two-thirds of their support.
Alba have followed up their terrible result last week by not even standing in Kilmarnock North - one of the roughly one-third of wards in Scotland where they did have a candidate in 2022.
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With the Techne poll (field work 19 -20 Feb) showing RefUK with a 1% lead over Labour, Opinium is now the only regular firm not showing RefUK with a settled lead.
ReplyDeleteLol. MASSIVE NIGHT for the SNP as they somehow turn a 12% vote drop into a HISTORIC TRIUMPH—because technically, sort of, in a roundabout way, they gained a seat they were already winning by miles. The strategy is CLEAR: lose votes in smaller chunks than last time and call it progress. Genius. Meanwhile, Labour is barely shifting, Reform is nicking Tory votes for fun, and SNP HQ is probably already drafting the next “NOT AS BAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN” press release.
ReplyDeleteAnd what about Alba’s latest bold move? Ah yes, the 2025 disappearing act. Why lose votes when you can simply NOT STAND AT ALL? Tactical brilliance. At this rate, next year’s grand electoral strategy will involve closing the party down altogether and calling it a masterstroke.
But aye, let’s all pretend that losing votes in slow motion is actually a sign of strength. The SNP is slipping, Reform is creeping, Alba is ghosting, and somehow this is all just business as usual. The ABSOLUTE STATE of it.
Give it rest, Dummy.
DeleteTa.
I'm disappointed that no mention was made of transgenedered and non-binary candidates. The hate continues.
DeleteLabour vote held up really well given the increase in votes for the Independent (Grant) and additional parties {LDs, Ref and Greens) standing this time grabbing over 15% of the vote.
ReplyDeleteSNP vote meanwhile took a big hit, as did Tories.
This is a good performance by SNP - easily the lead party once again as opinion polls also show.
ReplyDeleteJames Kelly has written another brilliant piece and he is truly scrumptious.
DeleteSNP Pravda in full voice this morning
ReplyDeleteSNP losing votes to Reform. Like it or not, many former SNP voters who still crave independence just don't like the rate the SNP is turning into woke and transgender central and their obsession with wanting to flood the country with even more immigration. Hopefully when Farage starts showing his face more in Scotland former SNP voters will drift back but the SNP has it's work cut out to strike a balance between woke and Reforms offering.
ReplyDeleteLet's not go through this nonsense again. Assuming the SNP are losing the votes direct to Reform is like putting 2 and 2 together and making 22.
DeleteI hear you James, and thanks again for the post you wrote the other day, investigating this idea in the cross-tabs.
DeleteThe strange thing is that the SNP's loss keeps on mirroring Reform's gain. Whatever dance is going on between these two and the other parties seems to be surprisingly precise.
10.05: James Kelly did a well-written web-log debunking this once and for all about a week ago.
Delete10:32: what may be happening is differential turnout between SNP voters and Reform voters.
DeleteSNP down by 12% in share. In absolute terms they're down from 1847 to 748 votes. A brutal 'success'.
DeleteIt wasn't a debunking, it was a theory.
DeleteAnd it utilised SNP's poor showing where many had already left to Labour to make the theory work.
Noone knows for sure where the reform voters come from. 50% of the country support independence , some will come from there, some will switchef to Labour, if a minority.
Different anon here (Lucy). Whilst I agree the evidence isn’t available to prove/ disprove direct SNP - Ref switching, the rise of Ref is significant and shows resilience in its upward path.
ReplyDeleteThe anon at 10:05 makes various claims about Reform, some more convincing than others. The “woke” criticism does resonate: single biological female sex spaces do matter; and the lack of an jobs focus, crowded out by so-called “just energy transition” lies, can also be seen as extension of woke betrayal too.
The immigration argument I don’t buy, as foreign immigration boosts the Scottish economy, eg see our university sector where foreign Master’s students pay elevated fees and then are highly motivated post-graduation to put their qualifications to work here (if only they would be allowed to to by Labour in WM…)
As someone who works in higher education i think you'll find the Chinese basically go home and are exchanged for another cohort paying over the odds.
DeleteTbh I think one of the biggest factors for Reforms rise is the sentiment that nothing ever changes with any of the main political parties (and you could argue that includes the SNP). People are sick and tired of the way things are and believe our political system needs a shakeup of some kind.
DeleteReform likely won't be the answer but as their name suggests, they're tapping into the sentiment that we badly need reform.
Lucy, people don't vote for populists because they value Chinese students coming here (pushing the price of renting sky high) to earn degrees. People vote populist as a reminder to politicians that working class folk have needs, too, which go way beyond the good of Edinburgh and Glasgow University.
DeleteNow, you and me know that immigration is key to paying for pensions and public services in the future but that argument doesn't resonate when you're poor already and feel alienated from your own country changing around you *now*.
There's an appetite for change. The politicians all know it, but they're feart and letting Farage run away with it till he's in Number 10.
It feels like the only thing that changes is the mankiness of our town centres and our kids unable to get a foot on the housing ladder.
DeleteTo be fair, there's also a lot more racial diversity most everywhere I go in Scotland these days. The whitest places now are where the English have come to replace us.
DeleteThe way the bbc spat out NI was the least diverse place in a report a few days ago.
DeleteIs there a specific golden % number we should be achieving?
I wouldn't be massively surprised if SNP and Labour on roughly 30% stayed all the way to the election. One over the other at various points.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be a ground breaking victory in either direction anyway is my feel.
The next Scotgov will either be a Labour + SNP coalition, or a "minority government" of those two working together against Farage's crew.
DeleteIn other words: the ideal incubator for an eventual Faragist Scotgov. Just like Germany's been for AfD.
If there isn't an alternative government, the people will eventually make one
DeleteLabour and Lib-Dems looking to make HR majority. Sarwar could become FM without Labour majority if Lib-Dems, Cons and Reform MSPs vote for him. Could turn out way Holyrood was designed to work.
DeleteRight, the latest tiresome attack on Wings by tiny-penised hackers has been squished, and we think we've bunged up all their little ratholes this time. Remain alert, and let us know if they slither in again. We apologise for the inconvenience
ReplyDeleteAnd we will crush the "Borderline Guard" at a time of our choosing.
Lucy here again.
ReplyDeleteI too work in higher education. I wasn’t thinking about Chinese students (who I’ve little experience of) but those from Africa and, especially, Latin America.
Sure, I'm not suggesting there aren't great people coming through but the huge influx isn't coming from there. It's a revolving door of economic dependency coming from China which is keeping the lights on.
DeleteAnd making Edinburgh's landlords filthy rich at our expense.
Delete11.21
DeleteAnd Glasgow's.
Good to learn that Scotland's universities are full of African students. I hadn't noticed.
DeleteGood to learn that Scotland's universities are full of African students. I hadn't noticed.
DeleteLYNX+ Rights Are The New Whatever
ReplyDeletehttps://theconversation.com/the-lynx-may-have-survived-in-scotland-centuries-later-than-previously-thought-new-study-suggests-167250
Flog YIR2
Go away
DeletePuir YIR2 he grat when he read the Survation poll and he'll be greetin when he reads anon 11.00 but flogging is a bit harsh.
DeleteGet help before it's too late. Your Union needs you
DeleteI see Wings has posted a couple of tweets from Yesser Neil Drysdale this morning.
ReplyDeleteThey suggest that Farage might 'promise' another Indyref before the next UK GE and an official announcement is expected from Reform next week.
Thoughts........?
If it's before the next GE then a Reform vote in 2026 would be a de facto Indy vote??
DeleteStu's got history for hairbrained indy schemes. Mind the one about hosting Trident for rUK in exchange for indyref2? Or the one about working with May for her failed attempt at Brexit?
DeleteMind, I'd love to see Farage come out as the only English politician in favour of Indyref2. That would be hilarious and disruptive!
Would his foreign backers really let him, though? rUK without Scotland is a weakened little place. No nukes, no resources…
This would open the flood gates to a Reform vote in Scotland.
DeleteIt's certainly devious.
DeleteBut what would it achieve for us? 2026 is a Holyrood election, not WM, so no matter how well Farage does, he can't write a Section 30 to authorise Indyref2. Starmer's still prime minister.
We end up in the intriguing situation of a humiliated Labour PM being the final roadblock to Scottish independence, no matter how many Reform and SNP (and Green) MSPs we elect.
What does Starmer do then? Double down on unionism? Has to be his only available move.
The only way we get a referendum from this is a Farage win at WM, and him keeping his word, however credible that may be. Shockingly good results for him in 2026's devolved elections would help him but it doesn't actually get us indyref2.
Swinney declaring the 2026 election is a de facto indyref meanwhile does!
If Reform promise an indyref it is the end of Alba for sure
Delete"Somerset calling, Somerset calling".
DeleteAnon at 11;56. Best laugh of the day.
DeleteA vote for reform is a vote for fascism whatever way it is spun. Most of the above replies are from fascist Goebbels scum who probably don’t have a vote in Scottish elections anyway and if they do then they are deluded indoctrinated bastards!!! Don’t let them win their poisonous racist campaign…..or we will have tanks rolling over Scotland. If you vote for independence then VOTE for independence. Reform English national party, just like all unionist
Deleteparties will employ every dirty trick in the book to stop energy rich Scotland having its democratic independent voice!!! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED……STOP THE FASCISTS!!!
Tanks? Whose?
DeleteBack on topic, while I certainly see the appeal of dangling Indyref2 as a lure to liven up Scottish politics, I can't see Farage giving up on his British Nationalism. We like to think there's a difference between English and British identity, but there's not. Scotland is their possession, in their eyes, and losing it is like losing a piece of England. No surrender!
Don’t be so stupid….it was a reference to the Nazi tanks rolling over Poland…you obviously didn’t listen at school….S2’s get taught this…I was BANG ON topic. The above replies were beginning to get a bit racist…I will never apologise for condemning fascism or racism. Your no surrender comment speaks volumes of your union bear connections, I suggest you keep that on your terraces. I agree with your statement about Scotland being their possession and that they will never give it up!!!
DeleteDoesn't tarring supporters of a person/Party all with the same brush and dismissing the reasons why people gravitate towards them not often have the opposite effect?
DeleteWe only need to look over to the US and the win Trump achieved... which is even more remarkable considering how chaotic his exit was last time.
If true it's a clever move. Gives Reform UK more appearance of supporting democracy than the Tories, Labour or LibDem parties in Scotland and also reaches a large majority of people in favour of Scotland having the right to a referendum (can't remember the last poll). Possibly clever in the rUK as well.
DeleteAlso heads off the pro-indy asserting that Reform UK won't allow a ref ever and would abolish Holyrood.
DeleteReform haven't been trumping up the Unionist card for a while up here.
DeleteThey see and hear what we all see. Nowhere near as luvvie duvvy in the Yes ranks to mass migration as there was 10 years ago.
I have a vision (from Our Leader) that we will liberate real estate by bulldozing Cumbernauld and creating the New City Of Indy:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24952977.alex-salmond-planned-new-scottish-town-called-independence/?ref=twtrec
Of the members that stood for Alba in 2022 about a third are no longer Alba members.
ReplyDeleteAnother third are either no longer members or no longer active members.
Of the members who stood for Holyrood in 2026
Of the women candidates 11 have left the party only 7 remain
Of all candidates only 15 / 32 remain.
Alba have a huge retention problem losing one third to a half of candidates that stood for them in elections. This is not normal.
Although to be fair they have managed to keep their council by-election candidates in the party.
How many of the above were, in fact, expelled from the party?
DeleteAlba has a huge McEleny problem. If only Chris McEleny was on the case, he'd turf out the troublemaker in a jiffy!
I have no idea how this is an SNP 'gain' from Labour when according to the numbers in this article the SNP had 47% of the vote at the last election, and Labour got 28% of the vote at the last election????????
ReplyDeleteI guess the most interesting thing is that apparently the SNP have lost 12% of their voters in three years, and apparently the Labour vote has stayed the same.
In STV council by-elections, the whole multi-member ward elects the replacement. So if the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th placed councillor quits, the party which came in 1st last time is in the best spot to make a "gain" at their expense.
DeleteIt's only weird because we're used to everything being first past the post.
Will be interesting to see how the Afd get on this Sunday in Germany. There are some press reports indicating that they have connected with the younger voters. Lot of stuff on Tiktoc etc.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it’s no longer cool to be a left wing, Palestinian / Hamas, mass immigration supporter?
If the Afd do show strongly then it should come as no surprise that Reform could be doing the same quietly in Scotland.
The SNP may regret giving the vote to the under 18,s
I'm not in favour of demonising immigration and think many here are a solid part of the community.
DeleteBut mass migration has been a mistake.
I do want scotland to be scottish by a large margin with plenty immigrant colour there too. But the numbers are too high. I think it divides communities whether we like it or not.
All counties are different. USA i would argue cannot be against mass migration as that is what their country is. But Europe is made of undiginous peoples who have made the countries. It's different. I don't know why racial diversity is considered a goal rather than an organic thing that will happen over time.
DeleteAnon at 5.11. We have a population shortage. How do you suggest we address this?
DeleteSNP are back in business! Enjoy your weekend IFS lol.
ReplyDelete