The latest batch of numbers from the Survation / True North Advisers / Holyrood Sources poll relates to attitudes towards the various options for a coalition government at Holyrood after next year's election. Respondents actually oppose every single option offered, which makes sense in a way, because each individual party has only minority support at the moment and there will thus always be a fair bit of opposition to a coalition that involves any given party. The least unpopular option is an SNP / Labour coalition, which is supported by 33% and opposed by 37%. Although plenty of centrists are trying to talk that option up (well, centrists plus Wings - an odd combination), I just can't see it as a runner. Labour have defined themselves as an anti-SNP party and they wouldn't know where the north is anymore if they abandoned that stance for the sake of a few ministerial posts.
But for Labour to get into power in any other way, they'll almost certainly need to do a deal with the Tories. It's possible that such a deal could fall short of full-blown coalition, which is just as well for them, because a Labour/Tory coalition is by far the most unpopular of the various permutations. Respondents reject the idea by a resounding 52% to 21% margin, and crucially, Labour's own voters from last July oppose it by a 2-1 margin (51% to 26%). It must be assumed that even an informal deal with the Tories would be unpopular enough with Labour voters to cost votes. Therefore, Labour would be playing with fire to follow pretty much any path that could get them into government - and that may well mean that, when it really comes down to it, they won't even try.
If no two parties besides labour plus SNP have a majority, some form of minority rule is guaranteed. The one demands Labour might have is the first minister spot for themselves. That way they can portray the neutered SNP being on board as a political coup for Starmer’s militantly centrist party. Any SNP leader who falls into that trap deserves permanent Derision from all of Scotland.
ReplyDeleteRemember the Tories did complicitlysupport the first SNP administration in 2007 through 2011 and that didn’t seem to harm the SNP in the least
iOS acting up on me but you get the drift.
DeleteWhat exactly happens when Hollyrood is badly split between several rival parties, with no obvious block that can muster a majority, isn’t precisely uncharted waters. But the last time that happened was a generation a go with much different political circumstances. Should be quite interesting to see who bends the knee to power.
In that situation as well there will be no goodwill given to the SNP from any of the unionist parties.
DeleteIn 2007 our politics was far less polarised and there was more willingness to find areas of agreement on a case-by-case basis etc.
But that kind of goodwill no longer exists and due to the length of time the SNP has been in power they won't want to waste an opportunity to change that.
I'm surprised Labour voters would reject a coalition with the Conservatives. They've been teaming up at council level for decades, and they're essentially the same party except for the official name.
DeleteMy guess is we get a SNP minority government.
ReplyDeleteHow does this work in practice? SNP can’t afford to rely on Green votes as they are such a turn off to most of the Scottish electorate. And all the other parties are Unionist so can’t afford to cosy up to the SNP (Labour are already pushing their luck on that as far as they can). So SNP + a la carte tolerance by one party or another (or multiples) on each and every vote? Instability a go-go.
Best option would be SNP majority, in fact I see no alternative likely path for stable government. And even that outcome is a real outside shot giving current polling.
It's also funny as realistically there isn't much hope of a functioning unionist Government either according to current polling. Especially since no one will work with Reform.
DeleteIt's not impossible where we could find ourselves in a situation where both sides are unable to put together a functioning Government.
It's also funny as realistically there isn't much hope of a functioning unionist Government either according to current polling. Especially since no one will work with Reform.
DeleteIt's not impossible where we could find ourselves in a situation where both sides are unable to put together a functioning Government.
What’s the polling on Reform’s assumed “untouchablity”?
DeleteWhen push comes to shove, unionists are unionists. Holyrood can be their test bed for the blushing Westminster newlyweds to come
Only Unionist party whose voters would tolerate (& then only some of them…) a coalition or informal-similar with Reform are the Tories. That’s nowhere near enough MSPs on their own.
DeleteIdea of Labour or - especially - LibDems doing so is for the birds. Don’t let your Yes political views blind you to the Lab and LibDem hatred of Reform, indeed for LibDems I’d go as far as “loathing” of them as the mot juste.
Previous poster is 100% correct to say Unionist parties may be unable to form a stable government either, in fact i’d put their chances of doing so at less than 1%.
Oh aye you can just imagine wee Alex Cole Hamilton jumping at the chance of saving dear Scotland from British rule and charging proudly into power with the SNP. Enough of you, overbearing UK rule, let liberty return to Scots in this Our Parliament!
Delete/s
I might have agreed with James’s comment about Labour and the tories pre Starmer,but now I wouldn’t be too sure. Both parties want to neuter devolution and a coalition might be a means to achieve that, coupled with amending legislation hugely limiting the powers exercisable under devolution. Worrying times, unless JS gets his act together and the confrontation and push for Indy get under way now.
ReplyDeleteSure, let’s assume you are right. But even if so, Lab & Tories combined are very very unlikely to get up to a majority of MSPs. LibDems as above, if added to this unlikely (IMHO) mix.
DeleteThe SNP is the best party to vote for at the next election.
ReplyDeleteSettling into the chip roll.
Delete“The SNP is the best party to vote for at the next election “
DeleteLOL🤣🤣🤣
Can we please have salt and vinegar? Please? It’s been 10 years already and democratic fairness insists we really ought to get…
DeleteOh. Oh, right you are. Sorry for asking.
the SNP are the best party short money can buy
DeleteIt's a party, you can cry if you want to, cry if you want to.
DeleteIf all that matters now is who the Scottish government is I can't care all that much.
ReplyDeleteThey're all quite similar policy wise.
The cause of independence feels like it's in the back burner. Seems to me that it's about careers now.
Another unionist kidding on their an independence supporter. If the tories and labour have to consider a unionist coalition it makes it even more imperative and even beneficial to have independence on the ballot paper.
ReplyDeleteThen put it there!
DeleteThere is a long way to go. I actually think that there will bec pro -independence majority elected in 2026.
ReplyDeleteI mean unless independence is prioritised, front and centre in the campaign (and more than just a rehash of the 2021 manifesto) what will the narrative be?
DeleteIf there isn't a convincing argument made that change via independence is a realistic prospect (rather than just one to hope for) it will be a very easy argument for unionists to make that the only real chance for change in the election is a change of Government after nearly 2 decades.
There is a long way to go. I actually think that there will bec pro -independence majority elected in 2026.
ReplyDeleteBut if that majority relies on Scots Greens then it hurts the Yes cause since they are so problematic in other ways.
DeleteWGD doggers react to James rejoining the SNP - Part One.
ReplyDeletedavidwilson359
First up is a poster I have never read before on WGD, SGP or indeed anywhere.
davidwilson359says:
" Having been accused of being a Unionist troll ( despite 55 years membership of the SNP ) and called an ar*ehole, a dogger , a wanker and a mad liar by a frequent contributor to SGP in the past, I hope that James Kelly will clean up his blog and resolve to do better in the future."
The same poster also has this to say in response to a post from Dr Jim:
" I've started reading SGP again after I was banned for daring to suggest that the Glorious Alba Party wouldn't get 6% of the vote and 8 seats at the 2021 SG election ( it got 1.66% and 0 seats ) thereby being " in persistent breach of house rules".You should read it: its hilarious. The amount of venom, bile and hatred being spewed around makes the stomach turn."
So this poster who wants James to clean up his act claims he started reading SGP again after he was banned. If you are banned ya numpty how are you reading it. You cannae be banned on SGP so david is a liar. Whether he is a mad liar I'll leave that for others to judge. He recommends Dr Jim reads SGP as it is hilarious but it also makes the stomach churn. This dogger is a confused dogger and disnae seem to realise that Dr Jim posts as an anon on SGP and contributes considerably to the venom he wants to introduce Jimbo to. Not only that davidwilson probably does the same as an anon troll.
Next episode Dr Jim.
Less is more
DeleteWGD doggers react to James rejoining the SNP - Part Two.
ReplyDeleteDr Jim
Jimbo says:
" I don't believe there is any change of heart from James Kelly here, he needed cash to keep his blog alive and Alba punters were not supporting it, so back to the SNP it is in the hope of some cash flowing in
I'm cynical because I remember well the language he used when he left the SNP and it's a similar tone he's using against Alba, is he now going to apologise for the anti Sturgeon misogynistic loony filled blog he fomented ? "
Disclaimer - all spelling mistakes and punctuation from Jimbo.
Fair to say James Jimbo is still not your biggest fan even though you are a fellow SNP member again. He seems to think you voluntarily left Alba. Jimbo has never been big on accuracy. Jimbo is no stranger to posting on SGP as an anon yet he claims posters are loonies. Well he is correct in the case of all the loonies from WGD ( and that includes you Jimbo) who post on SGP. The vast majority as anons.
Ditto repeat
DeleteWGD doggers react to James rejoining the SNP - Part Three.
ReplyDeleteScottish Skier
Scottish Skier or Declan or anon as he pops up on SGP says:
" I see James Kelly of SGP has returned to the SNP. His experience of Alba turned out to be what I was worrying about when the moved to them.
Would be nice if clears out the trolls from his blog in time for the big Indy vote, be like old times again. "
Disclaimer: spelling errors all Skiers.
Now Skier may have had what happened to James in his mind at the time but he certainly didn't express it in writing and as Skier tends not to hold back on writing on blogs what he is thinking methinks it is another porky from Skier who has never shirked from lying. To me he was more concerned about getting £20 back from James and giving him abuse.
Skier saves the best laugh for his final sentence. He refers to " in time for the big Indy vote." That was supposed to be 19/1023 Skier. He asks James to clear out the trolls on SGP - a good chunk comes from WGD.
He's not known as the The Brahan Skier for nothing.
DeleteFascinating to watch both the Anon Yoons and Albaists on here working themselves into a heavy sweat.
ReplyDeleteThe Yoons, because just about every poll now has SNP Seats/Votes consistently rising and Yoon Parties' splitting or falling - and the Albaists, because theirs has virtually disappeared altogether.
They are united (and Better Together) on one, solitary thing, however - their visceral hatred of the Scottish National Party. It is the only thing keeping the poor, wee critters going.
Every single post now coming from James, regarding the truly abysmal state of the Alba Party and his ludicrous expulsion from it, has been partially/fully turned into just another 'SNP Baaad' diatribe by these worthless bunch of nonentities.
Why?
Because they already know that there is now a very good probability that the SNP will, once again, be not only ( easily ) the most popular Party with voters in Scotland in 2026, but will also still be the Party of Govt up here - absolutely remarkable, after what will, by that time, be eighteen continuous years in office - in fact you need to go back almost 300 years to beat that record, on these islands.
I will very happily sit back and watch IFS ( and his aliases), his wee Coterie of Crony-Cretins, The Wingnut Wankers and the numerous Yooney-Toons, continue to tie themselves in ever-tightening knots, as their effectiveness drips down the nearest drain.
D Francis getting a bit carried away. We’re still a bit away from the Holyrood election, and a lot can happen before then.
DeleteBe a sad day if these charlatans get back in. They’ve done enough damage to this country and there’s urgent need for change.
You will find the SNP in the kitchen at parties
DeleteDavid you posted that on the previous article. A wee mistake after too much Talisker was it. You forgot the Slange! at the end.
DeleteYou are not going to get many people to vote SNP after that hate filled rant.
David Francis - I repeat my reply to your abusive post on the previous SGP article.
DeleteNo word about Scottish independence in that long nasty post. Not surprising as you, being an ex Labour man have helped turn the SNP in to a version of the Labour Party cloaked behind a tartan blanket with an even greater degree of nastiness than that you so hypocritically complain about in Alba.
Are there no standards of behaviour that SNP members must comply with? I suspect you crossed that line a long time ago, but not just on SGP.
You also seem to be developing a fixation in your posts on wanking David. Strange that.
Kenny McAskill has announced he’s standing for leader with the backing of Alex’s wife Moira
ReplyDeleteSo it’s a Kenny v Ash showdown
Who do we think will win and will it make a difference to Alba’s fortunes?
If it is Ash, Alba Party prospects descend even further, since all the evidence suggest that she ain't up to it.
DeleteIf it is Kenny, I don't think the opposing faction will go quietly, perhaps dooming his leadership of the party from the start.
My guess is that Ash wins since establishment in Alba Party seems to be on her side, and they are in ascendant within the party despite their appallingly poor stewardship of it.
Any rational person would see that Celine Gottwald or Dolores Inverarity are the obvious choices. Not only to the the Alva or SNP parties but to break the hymen of unionism. I rest my case, mine fine sirrah.
Delete