Opinium are one of the firms that showed the Brexit Party with an outright lead during their purple patch in mid-2019, so technically this is not an all-time high for Reform, who are legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party. But 24% is the best they've done with Opinium since their rebrand, and it's also the first time they've overtaken the Tories in an Opinium poll since then.
GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 8th-10th January 2025):
Labour 29% (-)
Reform UK 24% (+2)
Conservatives 23% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-1)
Greens 9% (-1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Four pollsters have reported in 2025 so far, and three of them have shown Reform at a new high watermark. Ironically, the only one that didn't is Find Out Now, which was nevertheless the one that put Reform in a joint lead with Labour.
There was some discussion on yesterday's thread about how we can't pin all our hopes for independence on a Farage premiership, because that might never happen, it might not have the effect we think it will, etc, etc. Well, that's fine, but if we're going to achieve independence in a different way, step 1 (and it'll be the most difficult step of all) will be to persuade John Swinney, and indeed Kate Forbes, to drop the nonsense about how independence can only happen with "overwhelming" support and to revert to seeking a simple 50% + 1 majority for Yes. If they insist upon the "overwhelming" route, that's certainly only ever going to happen with a massive disruptive event like a Reform victory, which leads liberal No voters to completely reassess their view of the UK. The idea that the SNP "demonstrating competence in government" would in itself push independence support to 65% is for the birds.
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I suppose the reality is that under the conservatives there was always an ( extreme) right wing group of anti-immigration, anti-eu or in fact anti- everything that wasn’t red white and blue- even if you lived in tax havens in the Isle of Man or hid your money offshore. English patriots to a T. Unfortunately, labour Lib Dem’s have mover also to the right with labour occupying the tories position of 20 years ago- although also pro Brexit these days. Lib Dem’s supported right wing austerity too.
ReplyDeleteAn opportunity is available for a social Democratic Party promoting policies including independence. In 2026 we must promote this as independence first and foremost.
I support 50 plus one obviously but the idea we're unable or unlikely to ever get overwhelming support makes me less sure if independence is right. Independence shouldn't be something half the country love and half the country hate. If the country can't back it overwhelmingly it's not on the same level as an Ireland or a Slovenia. Part of the reason I support independence is that we should see ourselves at that level and that's where we should be aiming for.
ReplyDeleteWe've had polls of close to 60 before. It's not really an awful lot to convince from where we are now. The union had a 2 to 1 lead, it should be an aim to get there and I reject that on this issue that is unachievable. Will it delay the calling of a vote? Maybe but simy calling one is not necessarily the only factor in getting a vote to happen and achieving independence.
Simple question: if 52% of the population want independence and 48% oppose it, should Scotland be independent or remain part of the UK? If your answer is the latter, that is not democracy.
DeleteAnswered by my first sentence already. Yes it should.
DeleteNot the point I was making though. To call a vote, after weve already had one, and in the face of London block, on the back of a few votes either way, isn't a strong hand. As we've seen.
I also just take issue with the idea we can't ever expect to see a clear and obvious majority in the 55-60 mark. It would be the bare expectation of any obviously independent minded nation.
Anon at 11.37am - Swinney is not talking about " a clear and obvious majority in the 55-60 mark." He said overwhelming support to make progress. That can mean anything. Surprised you didn't note that.
DeleteA reminder that the UK left the EU on a less than 52% to get its independence as the likes of Farage called it. If that is good enough for the English but not for Scots you are either suffering from the cringe or are a racist.
Brexit is nothing like a nations independence.
DeleteAnd if remain had won, we wouldn't be getting another one unless there was a ln obvious groundswell. We're not even getting one now when there is probably a majority for the EU.
Labour had 50% support while the union had 65-70% support.
ReplyDeleteThe two things are linked and not linked at the same time.
Complexity. Sophistication.
DeleteSnp had 50% support and independence referendum policy had 85% support.
DeleteAgree, political party support may be a pre-requistite but overall policy maximum support need not be like for like.
Might we need to go George Cunningham Plus?
ReplyDelete50% + of the electorate to vote for declared Indy Now candidates.
That could be the most orderly option,
Sturgeon and Murrell end marriage
ReplyDeleteAlthough I am an inter-island man of mystery, I wish to make it clear that I was in no way involved in the break-up of the Sturrell relationship.
Delete12.22pm - it was probably a business merger in the first place to get total control of the SNP. Sturgeon ditching Murrell now he is no use to her.
DeleteKC won't fancy you until you're a *ferry* of mystery. And as for John Robertson...
DeleteAlways sad when a relationship or marriage breaks down although it can be the best option for both parties.
DeleteIt's long overdue for the SNP members to step up to the plate and get rid of the devolutionists currently leading the SNP. Otherwise Westminster will be very happy ripping off Scotland's resources for the next 30 years at least.
ReplyDeleteYou have been conned by the Sturgeon/Murrell partnership. Man up to it and take positive action. For all those nicophants Sturgeon won't be coming back as leader - she said it herself in the interview with the FT.
We could certainly do with her leadership qualities.
DeleteFew would argue with that.
It's always a pleasure to see your petty ill informed arrogance reflected in that you choose to believe some things Nicola Sturgeon says but not others
DeleteIt must not take many strings to work you, puppet boy
Anon at 1.19pm - time has proven that most of what Sturgeon says are lies so yes you are correct she may be telling another lie and may try to come back. Presumably she thinks she could continue to con mugs like you. You need to get that tattoo on your hand 19/10/23 to remind you how big a fool you have been and not to repeat the same mistake again.
DeleteAnon at 1.18pm - you need to get the same tattoo and stop being a mug.
I see ifs hasn’t list their obnoxious comments.Sad that he believes they are more knowledgeable than the rest of us. SNP will win the 2026 election.
DeleteSNP members step up to the plate? What about members of Alba, ISP and the Yes Movement stepping up to the plate instead of hanging on tae the SNP's coattails?
DeleteAnon 1-56 Perhaps Ifs will understand that post but I don’t have a clue what you are going on about.
DeleteIt should make no difference what any poll or or even election vote shows, if Scotland elects a government of independence that government should have the legal right to choose the future of decision making
ReplyDeleteThe same should apply if Scotland elected a British political party as government
It plays the British game when you begin talking about amounts of thresholds and numbers for and against
Scotland is either a country or it's not
Don't allow the British to move your mind with their propaganda to thinking the way they want you to think, they have no right to set criteria for people's thoughts and opinions as to what they want or don't want
Hopefully this news doesn't get overshadowed: Holyrood agrees to block the release of MSPs' attendance records.
ReplyDeleteNicola Sturgeon complained about the publication of her attendance records. She is said to be 'seldom seen' at Holyrood since quitting as First Minister.
The decision means constituents will no longer be allowed to know how regularly their £72,000-a-year MSP turns up for work. So much for being open and transparent?
And ?
DeleteWe're supposed to be doing better than Westminster, having politicians hiding things makes us no better than them.
DeletePeter and Nicola deserve privacy at this time. The breakup of a marriage is a very sad thing. Both still care for each other. Both have made enormous sacrifices in order to serve the public and today we can see that one of the costs of doing so was to their marriage.
ReplyDeleteYep, wouldn't want Nicola being forced to speak publicly due to insensitive comments being made about her former spouse.
DeleteBoth Peter and Nicola deserve praise for their contribution. It is a sad moment for Scotland but I am sure they will continue to make a contribution.
DeleteSturgeon says - to her recollection, she does not recall any Peter Murrell, or any of the so-called alphabetties including those who worked for her - but in any case the man she never knew - never paid the council tax, fiddled the leccy meter and grew weed in the garage
DeleteWill Sturgeon be announcing an engagement?
Deletewill she just come out and say yes I am a wee fat lesbian
Delete1.43pm Just how did Murrell serve the public? He was in charge of the SNP party. He served himself and tried to get Salmond jailed. What a load of sycophantic twaddle you posted.
DeleteHistory will be kind to Nicola Sturgeon and I would not rule out a come back.
ReplyDeleteonly if she writes the history books
Deleteindy : my part in its downfall
DeleteWe already know that Alba is now a total and utter irrelevance in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThat much is very evident.
Question is - where will their miniscule vote now drift to in 2026?
Reading some of their supporters' posts on here, on X and on fb, my best guess is that many, if not the majority, will probably go to Farage's Reform Party.
Of course, that is their absolute right and only time will tell - but, if confirmed, it will clearly show Alba-Support for what it really is - Right of Centre, 'conservative' and willing to 'vote unionist' rather than for a Pro-Indy Scotgovt.
(Wings will love it).
On a lighter note - I think BBC Shortbread will now have many more journos at its general disposal, after shutting-down its very large 'Ferries Dept'.
Or........will they just be transferred to the brand new 'Murrell Divorce' Section?
Wonder how long they will run that wee story?
A week, a month, a year, a decade?
Any bets???
@David Francis Out of curiosity what's any of that got to do with the contents of this blog post?
DeleteIncidentally, NS and PM deserve credit for being transparent and explaining their relationship status to the public. They have always excelled in the communications space. Hopefully we have not heard the last from them.
Deletedave francis StoneWall Nonce Party apologist and professional gaslighter
Deletethe SNP destroyed indy then turn round and blame everyone else
DeleteI hope they all die young before they can collect their UK pensions
davefrancis will impress me
Deleteonce he can do a
paragraph correctly
David Francis is twitchy - and rightly so.
DeleteAnon at 2:51
DeleteEh?
I'm case you haven't noticed, the general discussion now includes Sturgeon's personal life, MSPs attendance records etc...
Maybe I missed your responses to those posts....?
David Francis - why are you so obsessed with Alba when you are sure they are an irrelevance. Why not try and sort out your own party the one true vehicle for independence.
DeleteAnon at 4:04
DeleteWith respect, the only 'obsession on this site has been with Alba supporters on the SNP.
You really need to be blind, to miss it.
I am merely returning the favour.
But, I agree with the gist of your other point - my Party does need 'sorting out' in many ways and I am delighted that the present Leadership is at least beginning on that journey.
I am also delighted that James has now rejoined SNP to hopefully accelerate it.
Becoming an independent State based on a 51% vote would be a world first for the birds. Realistically, a major societal attitude change would be required, not winning-over 2% of the electorate.
ReplyDeleteI think the Reform vote in Scotland will be quite high in areas with significant proportions of immigrants, and there are quite a few of them. No doubt a lot of people will want others to blame for their hospital being held together with sticky-tape (mine's is), etc.
the union should only be retained on a unanimous yearly referendum, otherwise we revert to original states. One naysayer should be enough to bust the union. It is an unnatural state and a political abomination.
DeleteIt's actually not. Montenegro did it .
DeleteIt also would have happened in 2014.
It's not the scale of victory
It's losers consent that's key. Scots are a democratic people.
I see quite a few Albaists have now crawled out from beneath their wee rocks.
ReplyDeleteTo be pitied and then laughed at.
Not necessarily in that order......
I mean it seems to be you writing unhinged posts... but please carry on. You do you.
DeleteA poor, wee Anon giving out advice?
DeleteWHO are you, exactly?
Hi david,
DeleteYour tone is not helpful and I do not support Alba.
Such a waste of venom.
Regards
Anon at 5.30
DeleteMirror-time, I think.
Maybe expect some come-back when you hide behind your anonymity to call someone 'unhinged' in what they say.
'Helpful' it was not.
Have a nice life.
Anon at 254 hopes all SNP supporters die young? what an imbecilic statement.
ReplyDeleteI already draw mine - ridiculously small though it is - so he/she/it has already missed that particular boat!
Delete