To answer Keaton's question from the previous thread, the SNP's gain from Labour in the Bannockburn by-election is a 'technical' one rather than a 'real' one, because although Labour were defending the seat, the SNP won the popular vote in the ward last time around. However, there has been a swing from Labour to SNP, which arguably makes it as good as a real gain anyway.
Bannockburn by-election result on first preferences (23rd January 2025):
SNP 35.9% (+7.2)
Labour 23.9% (+3.1)
Reform UK 22.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 10.7% (-8.4)
Liberal Democrats 3.5% (+1.4)
Greens 3.4% (+1.0)
Labour 23.9% (+3.1)
Reform UK 22.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 10.7% (-8.4)
Liberal Democrats 3.5% (+1.4)
Greens 3.4% (+1.0)
Apart from the SNP's strikingly strong performance, it's once again the breakthrough for Reform UK that stands out. 23% is on the high side for them, even by the standards of recent Scottish by-elections. But that's been offset by a relatively poor result for them in the Colinton/Fairmilehead by-election in Edinburgh. That was the ward where the Liberal Democrats had a stunning by-election gain towards the end of last year, only to see their winning candidate resign as a councillor about ten seconds later. Understandably they've been punished for that, with their vote collapsing and a lot of it returning to the Tories.
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Please stay safe in the storm today. I was in a public place in Glasgow last night when the sirens on people's mobile phones started going off simultaneously. It was just a tad sinister because for a minute or two it was far from clear what was going on. You really need a warning about the warning.
Worth noting the Independent Cllr, Alasdair MacPherson, won 1st Preferences in 2022. He's a former SNP Cllr and vocal Nationalist. So it makes sense that his absence this time around would have boosted SNP support.
ReplyDelete"vocal Nationalist"
DeleteSpoken like a true unionist.
The biggest shock for me there is the vote for Reform and they well could be kingmakers after the next Holyrood elections. Bad news methinks if you’re a supporter of independence.
ReplyDeleteHi, KC.
DeleteAny 'win' after the past year we've had is a good win as far as I am concerned. The Reform vote is an indication of dissatisfaction in the unionist ranks but I wonder if the people who are giving them their vote actually know what they're voting for - other than the actual name of the party itself? Farage's wish to introduce a 'French style' insurance scheme to replace the universal NHS should put any working class voter off voting for them.
ReplyDeleteReform is likely to make inroads in the poorer areas of Scotland
ReplyDeleteFarmilehead and Colinton is an affluent area with a large middle class Tory vote
I expect it’s the working class vote Reform will pick up but it is an issue for independence
I think complacency is creeping into the SNP with Labours poor performance and Reform not really touching their support. But Reform could be the 2026 king makers and they are not going to make John Swinney king.
Assuming that Reform's vote comes disproportionately from other unionist parties (and it does seem to), that may in some circumstances make it easier for John Swinney to remain First Minister. It will fragment unionist representation in Holyrood and make it harder to cobble together a Labour--led coalition.
DeleteVery few SNP have switched to reform that's for sure.
DeleteThe way list seat calculations work would mean Reform is just as likely to take a Green / SNP list seat as a Tory / Labour one. So if they end up with say 10 MSPs they may well have the balance of power between the unionist block and the nationalist block
DeleteThey are more likely to back the largest unionist party leader for FM and back a minority unionist government.
Could Tory or Labour (depending on the arithmetic) + LibDem + Reform be the government with Labour/Tory giving tacit support (similar to Tories in 2007-2011)
"The way list seat calculations work would mean Reform is just as likely to take a Green / SNP list seat as a Tory / Labour one."
DeleteThat's simply not true. If the Tories and Labour lose a lot of votes to Reform, that will cost them list seats.
Very good SNP results.
ReplyDeleteReform appeal primarily to the hard of thinking.
ReplyDeleteAnd the silent racists
ReplyDeleteI doubt that many of the remaining SNP voters are anti-establishment, or against the status quo, so I presume that not that many of them will switch to an anti-establishment party like Reform.
ReplyDeleteLiterally a party that wants to leave one country and create / reestablish a new one and you call it non anti establishment. It's the very definition of anti establishment.
DeleteI assume you are part of the SNP are just devolutionish brigade. Rather insulting to the 10s of 1000s of members don't you think?
Genuine question how do you fall so far down a rabbit hole that you think Literally all these people are secretly anti independence?
Nowadays can't get a more establishment party in Scottish politics than the SNP. It's just a fact. Independence has very little, if anything, to do with it. How much of the Scottish government's and the SNP's efforts are currently targeted at independence? Very slightly more that zero, or zero?
DeleteAlba will lead us to independence 😅
DeleteAnon at 2.27pm - you are not very bright. It's not you who create SNP policy is it. Did you vote for Swinney's nothing happening on independence until I decide there is overwhelming support.
DeleteYou may want independence but it's the SNP leadership that decide and they are devolutionists. The once great member led democratic SNP is no more.
Any clue from this about the second preferences of reform voters?
ReplyDeleteThe stage where the Reform candidate was excluded resulted in 80 vote going to the Labour candidate and 59 votes going to the SNP candidate (and no votes going to the Tory candidate).
DeleteEr, no. The Tory candidate had already been eliminated by then, which is exactly why it can't be assumed that the SNP were the second preference of the Reform voters who transferred to them.
DeleteI ask because I have heard from canvassers in Glasgow that a large chunk of the reform vote are working class former SNP voters who would still vote yes on indy and wondered if there was any evidence for that from actual votes.
DeleteDo they use a oiuja board James?
DeleteAnon 3.53. Reform voters would vote for Indy ? Except their hero Farage wouldn't give them the chance.
DeleteIFS absolutely raging about these results lol
ReplyDeleteOh no I'm not Skier. It's been ages since you posted your Ski jump independence graph. Go on it's always good for a laugh. Post it this Sunday - Ski Sunday.
DeleteIfs rages about the shape of the Moon though.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 4.55pm - as distinct from you howling at the moon.👹
Delete