Yes, of course a pro-independence majority in 2026 is still perfectly possible

I'm indebted to my Somerset-based stalker for posting a seemingly exhaustive list of every political blog of note in Scotland, and which shows Scot Goes Pop with impressive figures as the fifth most-read blog, ahead of sites such as Bella Caledonia, Effie Deans, Talking Up Scotland (which I affectionately think of as Global Ferry News) and best of all Blair McDougall's Notes on Nationalism.  Indeed, if the figures are to be believed, Scot Goes Pop has a readership some sixty-two times bigger than Notes on Nationalism, a website that McDougall assumes is so well known to the public that he feels he only ever needs to refer to it by the admittedly amusing initials "NoN".  

Sadly, the numbers and the rankings aren't remotely reliable, because they almost certainly come from SimilarWeb.  As I've mentioned many times before, I used to doublecheck Mr Campbell's claims before SimilarWeb introduced a registration-wall, and the figures for Wings Over Scotland revealed that the site supposedly has around fifteen "employees", a "turnover" of several million pounds, and is based in Glasgow, as opposed to, say, Bath.  If the traffic estimates are as reliable as those claims, there's something of a credibility problem.  In truth, the likelihood is that Wings' traffic is wildly overestimated by SimilarWeb due to many of his regulars treating the site as a de facto discussion forum, meaning they constantly refresh the page to see if there are new comments, with each refresh counting as a fresh "visit".  It was for exactly that reason that fifteen years ago Political Betting was able to honestly claim to be the UK's "most-read" political blog, even though Iain Dale's blog had a far higher number of unique readers, which is what really matters.

Nevertheless, because I now have such a high-profile source for the claim that Scot Goes Pop is the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland, I might as well take advantage of that, so I've updated the site's masthead accordingly.  I was tempted to say "one of the four most-read political blogs in Scotland", because I'm not sure we should really be counting Somerset-based gender politics blogs as "Scottish", but I'll be ultra-generous and stretch the point. 

Mr Campbell goes on to make my ears burn with this assertion - 

"What’s left of the much-reduced Scottish political blogosphere has mostly reacted to these developments with either catatonic indifference or wild outbreaks of denial, clutching at all manner of straws to pretend that there’s any credible prospect of a pro-indy majority after the next Holyrood election...18 months is a long time in politics, but we’re going to call this one early: there is zero prospect of a pro-indy majority after the next Holyrood election. None. Barring a nuclear war or an alien invasion or some equally implausible revolutionary event, it’s simply not happening."

With all due respect (which admittedly is not much respect), that's an absolutely clueless claim that reveals a truly astonishing level of ignorance about the current state of polling, and also about recent political history in both Scotland and the wider democratic world and what it tells us about the volatility of the electorate.  Mr Campbell is a good bit older than me, so he really ought to be able to remember the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, when a Labour-led government looked a racing certainty as late as February or early March, but a single-party majority SNP government was elected in early May.  If predictions were that far out just two months before an election, it is just absolutely nuts for Mr Campbell to claim that a pro-independence majority can be completely ruled out some eighteen months before the 2026 election.  Especially given that it's just one month since the seats projection from a Norstat poll showed the SNP and Greens in combination on 61 seats - just four short of a majority.

Nobody is suggesting that a pro-independence majority is the most likely outcome, but with so much time to go there are multiple ways in which it could still happen - most obviously by the UK Labour government's unpopularity continuing to deepen and voters drifting back to the SNP as a result.  A major Green surge could also do the trick, as long as the SNP vote holds up reasonably well.

Mr Campbell also approvingly quotes Robin McAlpine, who all of us are completely in awe of for his wonderfully incisive policy and strategy analysis, but I'm not sure his analysis of our electoral system is quite up to the same standard here - 

"If Reform ended up one point ahead of the Greens in every list, it is conceivable the Greens could be wiped out."

Well, I suppose that's theoretically possible, in the same sense that it's possible Shergar may yet turn up alive and well in a Chelsea penthouse, but with recent polls putting the Greens between 8% and 10% of the list vote, they look pretty well-placed to return a sizeable contingent irrespective of the Reform surge.  The chances of them being wiped out completely are very low.

That said, it's worth noting that Robin McAlpine himself confidently stated at times during the 2016-21 parliament that the polling evidence showed there was no real chance of the pro-indy majority being sustained in 2021, so that's another example of how it pays to be cautious with predictions and how dramatically and unpredictably the state of play can change.

I know Mr Campbell was sort-of-quoting an Irish website with the following statement, but pedantry means I can't resist - 

"Our dear cousins across the Irish Sea, incidentally, are in a similar boat. Last week’s election to the Dáil left the nation so split, with no party able to achieve even 22% of the vote, that a coalition of FOUR parties might be required to get anything done."

Hmmm.  In fact, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in combination ended up just two seats short of an overall majority, so adding a third party (either Labour or the Social Democrats, who have eleven seats apiece) will put them well past the winning post with an extremely comfortable working majority.  It's possible there may yet be a four-party coalition, but if that happens it won't be because it's arithmetically necessary, but simply because Labour and the Social Democrats are both looking for safety in numbers, ie. nobody wants to be the fall guy as the only junior coalition partner.  

And needless to say Mr Campbell hasn't missed an opportunity to spew yet more random hatred about the Gaelic language.  We knew you wouldn't let us down, Stu.